We are more than halfway through the NFL betting season, and the MVP race is heating up, with candidates from several Super Bowl betting contenders on the rise. For the first time in several seasons, there are many candidates whom you can make a strong case for.
However, there are some bets on the board that present more value than others. Here are my top-4 favorite MVP bets for the 2019 season.
Top 4 NFL MVP Bets
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes | +120
Patrick Mahomes is the clear-cut favorite to win MVP honors this season, and that's not a surprise. Through nine games, Mahomes had scored 31 touchdowns and thrown for nearly 3,000 yards, leading the Chiefs No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL (36.3 PPG). He’s averaged 322 passing yards per game while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt.
MVP voters love narratives, and with the second-year quarterback leading the team to the best record in the NFL, it’s not hard to see why Mahomes is the favorite. The Chiefs will play a big game against the Rams in late November, and if Mahomes can pull off a win in Mexico City, he should just about lock up the award.
Unless the Chiefs fall off a cliff in the second half of the season, it’s Mahomes’ award to lose.
Saints QB Drew Brees | +250
While Mahomes is the clear favorite, Drew Brees is an excellent No. 2 option for MVP honors this season. The Saints had the best record in the NFL through nine weeks, and it has been due to Brees’ outstanding play.
Through eight games, Brees is completing an absurd 76.3% of his passes while averaging a career-high 8.4 yards per attempt. He's thrown 18 touchdowns to just one interception as his passer rating is at a career high of 120.6.
New Orleans is averaging nearly 35 points per game and has just added Dez Bryant to help improve their juggernaut of an offense. If the Saints finish the season with the best record in the NFC and have the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, it is going to be hard not to vote for Brees.
He and Mahomes, despite being the favorites, are the two best bets on the board.
Patriots QB Tom Brady | +1800
Here is what Tom Brady would need to accomplish this season to win his fourth MVP award. Brady would need to lead the Patriots to a 13-3 record. The Patriots would need to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC and Brady would need to throw 33+ touchdowns, more than he did last season.
All of those things are possible given where the Patriots and Brady are this year. If Brady at age 41 can get the Patriots back on top of the AFC, there is a legit case that he should be considered for back-to-back MVP honors. At 18-1, it’s not a bad bet for the greatest quarterback of all time.
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger | +3300
If you are looking for a long-shot pick with some value, look no further than Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Voters love quarterbacks, as we have now had five straight seasons of a quarterback being named MVP.
That’s why gambling on Roethlisberger with these odds isn’t a bad bet. Over his last five games (through Week 10), Roethlisberger has scored 14 touchdowns and has thrown just two interceptions. The Steelers' offense is starting to heat up, and with the weapons Roethlisberger has at his disposal, it wouldn't be a shock if he put up career numbers at age 36.
If Pittsburgh finishes the season as the No. 1 or No. 2 team in the AFC, Roethlisberger's name will surely be mentioned as possible dark horse MVP candidate.