Patrick Reed FedExCup Odds Tighten For Possible Value Bet
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With victory in last week’s first FedExCup Playoff, The Northern Trust, Patrick Reed jumped 48 places in the rankings to second and with it has been rated a +600 shot with 888Sports at winning the TOUR Championship in two weeks time.
Plenty Of Value For Patrick?
The drastic move in his odds has been prompted by a new scoring system which means that after this week’s BMW Championship the field will be staggered heading into the final event of the 2018-19 season.
The leader of the rankings will start the 72-hole event on 10-under-par, second on 8-under, third on 7-under, with gradation continuing on until the ones ranked 16th to 30th begin the week as normal on level-par.
With 2,000 points on offer to this week’s winner at Medinah, there remains plenty of opportunity for a big change at the top but from fifth-place down, there are less than 500 points available and Reed is already over 600 points clear of fifth-placed Jon Rahm in the rankings.
A top 10 finish from Reed this week would most likely see him head into the Tour Championship in the top three, and therefore at least seven shots better than par to start with. For him to drop out of the top six would require nothing less than a remarkable catalog of events.
Away from those mathematical conundrums what can we make of his chances on the two courses which will host this week and next?
Reed's Road Moving Forward
One reason he excelled at Liberty National last week was his familiarity and fondness for the track owing to his memories of starring there for America in the Presidents Cup.
“It was definitely on my mind,” he said afterward. “Having the fans yell ‘Captain America’ and ‘USA!’ all week added to that.”
Well, this week’s host Medinah was the scene of Europe’s Ryder Cup Miracle in 2012 – more inspiration for Reed maybe? He wasn’t there, but he’d love to embrace the memories and seek some revenge.
The biggest problem for his ultimate success might be his record at East Lake, next week’s venue because in five visits he is yet to crack the top 10.
On the other hand, he’ll be fuelled with the knowledge that since the FedExCup was created in 2010 the Tour Championship has tended to be won by players in scintillating form in the playoffs which precede it – a trend that the new system ought only to advance.
He also referenced his Masters win after his victory last Sunday and he might care to remember something else from that success because it followed three consecutive top 10 finishes while adding another two straight afterward.
In other words, he can ride a form wave and if he does so until the end of August it would prove very lucrative.