Recent Super Bowl Betting Trends From ATS to Jersey Color

Recent Super Bowl Betting Trends From ATS to Jersey Color
USA Today
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Dave Golokhov for Bookies.com

By Dave Golokhov | | 6 mins

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The Super Bowl is one heck of a spectacle but in terms of handicapping the game, there are some concrete trends fans of Super Bowl betting can follow.

If you are considering betting on the big game, here are some trends savvy NFL betting fans are sure to make note of, from over/under betting to point spread betting and beyond.

How often does the favorite win the Super Bowl?

In the last 20 Super Bowls, the favorite is 8-11-1 against the spread.

As you can see below, the AFC had won and covered three in a row prior to Super Bowl LII. They have been the more successful side over the last couple of decades and much of that has to do with the New England Patriots dynasty. The AFC has won 11 of 17 Super Bowls from 2002-18.

The biggest takeaway from this history is that the winner covers the majority of the time. Of the 52 Super Bowls we’ve seen, only nine times (17.3%) has a team won but not covered. The team that’s won has covered nine straight and 12 of the last 13 Super Bowls, from 2006-18.

That gives you a good indication that it’s best to forget the spread and just pick the winner in the Championship Game and go with straight moneyline betting.

Recent Super Bowl Against the Spread Results

Super BowlATS ResultScoreLine
LIIUnderdogEagles 41, Patriots 33Patriots -4
LIFavoritePatriots 34, Falcons 28Patriots -3
50UnderdogBroncos 24, Panthers 10Panthers -5
XLIXFavoritePatriots 28, Seahawks 24Patriots -1
XLVIIIUnderdogSeahawks 43, Broncos 8Broncos -2.5
XLVIIUnderdogRavens 34, 49ers 3149ers -4
XLVIUnderdogGiants 21, Patriots 17Patriots -3
XLVFavoritePackers 35, Steelers 31Packers -2.5
XLIVUnderdogSaints 31, Colts 17Colts -4.5
XLIIIFavoriteSteelers 27, Cardinals 23Steelers -7
XLIIUnderdogGiants 17, Patriots 14Patriots -12.5
XLIFavoriteColts 29, Bears 17Colts -7
XLFavoriteSteelers 21, Seahawks 10Steelers -4
XXXIXUnderdogPatriots 24, Eagles 21Patriots -7
XXXVIIIUnderdogPatriots 32, Panthers 29Patriots -7
XXXVIIUnderdogBuccaneers 48, Raiders 21Raiders -4
XXXVIUnderdogPatriots 20, Rams 17Rams -14
XXXVFavoriteRavens 34, Giants 7Ravens -3
XXXIVPushCardinals 23, Titans 16Cardinals -7
XXXIIIFavoriteBroncos 34, Falcons 19Broncos -7.5

Broncos punter Britton Colquitt (4) lays in the confetti with his baby after beating the Panthers in Super Bowl 50.
USA Today
Broncos punter Britton Colquitt (4) lays in the confetti with his baby after beating the Panthers in Super Bowl 50.

How often does the Super Bowl go over?

In the last 20 Super Bowls, the over bet is 9-10-1.

However, we’re seeing a clear-cut pattern of overs recently, as five of six went past the number from 2013-18. That’s likely because of the fact that the NFL continues to shift the rules to make it easy for games to be higher-scoring.

We’ve seen an average of 56.3 points scored over those six Super Bowls, compared to 43.1 in the eight Super Bowls before that.

Recent Super Bowl Over/Under Results

Super BowlOver/Under ResultScoreLine
LIIOverEagles 41, Patriots 3349
LIOverPatriots 34, Falcons 2858
50UnderBroncos 24, Panthers 1043.5
XLIXOverPatriots 28, Seahawks 2447.5
XLVIIIUnderdogSeahawks 43, Broncos 847.5
XLVIIOverRavens 34, 49ers 3147
XLVIUnderGiants 21, Patriots 1754
XLVOverPackers 35, Steelers 3145
XLIVUnderSaints 31, Colts 1756.5
XLIIIOverSteelers 27, Cardinals 2346.5
XLIIUnderGiants 17, Patriots 1454.5
XLIUnderColts 29, Bears 1748
XLUnderSteelers 21, Seahawks 1047
XXXIXUnderPatriots 24, Eagles 2147.5
XXXVIIIOverPatriots 32, Panthers 2937.5
XXXVIIOverBuccaneers 48, Raiders 2144
XXXVIUnderPatriots 20, Rams 1753.5
XXXVOverRavens 34, Giants 733
XXXIVUnderCardinals 23, Titans 1648
XXXIIIPushBroncos 34, Falcons 1953

Other Super Bowl Trends

 Patriots safety Patrick Chung (23) celebrates in the locker room with the Vince Lombardi trophy after defeating the Atlanta Falcons during Super Bowl LI.
USA Today
Patriots safety Patrick Chung (23) celebrates in the locker room with the Vince Lombardi trophy after defeating the Atlanta Falcons during Super Bowl LI.

The White Jerseys

This is a little bit of an odd of an odd one but the team wearing their white jerseys has won 12 of the last 14 Super Bowls, from 2005-18. The two that bucked the trend were the Philadelphia Eagles in 2018 and the Green Bay Packers at Super Bowl XLV.

Favorites Tend To Cash In

Something to consider if you like betting the moneylines: favorites tend to win. In the first 52 Super Bowls, 34 winners were favored in the game. That translates to 65.3%. More recently, though, underdogs have won six of seven Super Bowls, from 2012-18.

NFC Loves The Domes

There have been 19 Super Bowls that were hosted inside domes (full-on domes, not including retractable roofs) and the NFC is 15-4 in those contests entering Super Bowl LIII, which will be hosted in Atlanta in Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Defense Wins Championships

Although the NFL is changing to become more offense-oriented, know that the top-ranked scoring defense has defeated the top-ranked scoring offense in five of the six meetings in the first 52 Super Bowls.

Best Regular-Season Record Means Nothing

You’d think that the regular season record might mean something in the Super Bowl, but remember, unlike the other three major sports, there is no home-field advantage in the NFL’s championship game. The team winning the Super Bowl actually had the worse record in 10 of 12 Super Bowls from 2006-2017. In 2018 the Eagles and Patriots had the same 13-3 record.

NFC Dominates Top-Seeded Matchups

There have only been 13 meetings between the two No. 1 seeds in each conference though 52 games, but the NFC has bested the AFC in nine of those contests.

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