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Recent Super Bowl Betting Trends From ATS to Jersey Color

Recent Super Bowl Betting Trends From ATS to Jersey Color

The Super Bowl is one heck of a spectacle but in terms of handicapping the game, there are some concrete trends fans of Super Bowl betting can follow.

If you are considering betting on the big game, here are some trends savvy NFL betting fans are sure to make note of, from over/under betting to point spread betting and beyond.

How often does the favorite win the Super Bowl?

In the last 20 Super Bowls, the favorite is 8-11-1 against the spread.

As you can see below, the AFC had won and covered three in a row prior to Super Bowl LII. They have been the more successful side over the last couple of decades and much of that has to do with the New England Patriots dynasty. The AFC has won 11 of 17 Super Bowls from 2002-18.

The biggest takeaway from this history is that the winner covers the majority of the time. Of the 52 Super Bowls we’ve seen, only nine times (17.3%) has a team won but not covered. The team that’s won has covered nine straight and 12 of the last 13 Super Bowls, from 2006-18.

That gives you a good indication that it’s best to forget the spread and just pick the winner in the Championship Game and go with straight moneyline betting.

Recent Super Bowl Against the Spread Results

Super Bowl ATS ResultScoreLine
LIIIFavoritePatriots 13, Rams 3 Patriots -2.5
LIIUnderdogEagles 41, Patriots 33 Patriots -4
LI Favorite Patriots 34, Falcons 28 Patriots -3
50 Underdog Broncos 24, Panthers 10 Panthers -5
XLIX Favorite Patriots 28, Seahawks 24 Patriots -1
XLVIII UnderdogSeahawks 43, Broncos 8 Broncos -2.5
XLVIIUnderdogRavens 34, 49ers 31 49ers -4
XLVI Underdog Giants 21, Patriots 17 Patriots -3
XLV Favorite Packers 35, Steelers 31 Packers -2.5
XLIV Underdog Saints 31, Colts 17 Colts -4.5
XLIII Favorite Steelers 27, Cardinals 23 Steelers -7
XLII Underdog Giants 17, Patriots 14 Patriots -12.5
XLI Favorite Colts 29, Bears 17 Colts -7
XL Favorite Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 Steelers -4
XXXIX Underdog Patriots 24, Eagles 21 Patriots -7
XXXVIII Underdog Patriots 32, Panthers 29 Patriots -7
XXXVII Underdog Buccaneers 48, Raiders 21 Raiders -4
XXXVI Underdog Patriots 20, Rams 17 Rams -14
XXXV Favorite Ravens 34, Giants 7 Ravens -3
XXXIV Push Cardinals 23, Titans 16 Cardinals -7

Recent Super Bowl Betting Trends From ATS to Jersey Color 1
Broncos punter Britton Colquitt (4) lays in the confetti with his baby after beating the Panthers in Super Bowl 50.

How often does the Super Bowl go over?

In the last 21 Super Bowls, the over bet is 9-11-1.

However, we’re seeing a clear-cut pattern of overs recently, as five of seven went past the number from 2013-19. That’s likely because of the fact that the NFL continues to shift the rules to make it easy for games to be higher-scoring.

We’ve seen an average of 50.6 points scored over those seven Super Bowls, compared to 43.1 in the eight Super Bowls before that.


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Recent Super Bowl Over/Under Results

Super Bowl Over/Under ResultScoreLine
LIIIUnderPatriots 13 Rams 3 56.5
LIIOverEagles 41, Patriots 33 49
LI Over Patriots 34, Falcons 28 58
50 Under Broncos 24, Panthers 10 43.5
XLIX Over Patriots 28, Seahawks 24 47.5
XLVIII UnderdogSeahawks 43, Broncos 8 47.5
XLVIIOverRavens 34, 49ers 31 47
XLVI Under Giants 21, Patriots 17 54
XLV Over Packers 35, Steelers 31 45
XLIV Under Saints 31, Colts 17 56.5
XLIII Over Steelers 27, Cardinals 23 46.5
XLII Under Giants 17, Patriots 14 54.5
XLI Under Colts 29, Bears 17 48
XL Under Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 47
XXXIX Under Patriots 24, Eagles 21 47.5
XXXVIII Over Patriots 32, Panthers 29 37.5
XXXVII Over Buccaneers 48, Raiders 21 44
XXXVI Under Patriots 20, Rams 17 53.5
XXXV Over Ravens 34, Giants 7 33
XXXIV Under Cardinals 23, Titans 16 48

Other Super Bowl Trends

Recent Super Bowl Betting Trends From ATS to Jersey Color 2
Patriots safety Patrick Chung (23) celebrates in the locker room with the Vince Lombardi trophy after defeating the Atlanta Falcons during Super Bowl LI.

The White Jerseys

This is a little bit of an odd of an odd one but the team wearing their white jerseys has won 13 of the last 15 Super Bowls. The two that bucked the trend were the Philadelphia Eagles in 2018 and the Green Bay Packers at Super Bowl XLV.

Favorites Tend To Cash In

Something to consider if you like betting the moneylines: favorites tend to win. In the first 53 Super Bowls, 35 winners were favored in the game. That translates to 66%. More recently, though, underdogs won six of seven Super Bowls from 2012-18.

NFC Loves The Domes

There have been 20 Super Bowls that were hosted inside domes (full-on domes, not including retractable roofs) and the NFC is 15-5 in those contests.

Defense Wins Championships

Although the NFL is changing to become more offense-oriented, know that the top-ranked scoring defense has defeated the top-ranked scoring offense in five of the six meetings in the first 53 Super Bowls.

Best Regular-Season Record Means Nothing

You’d think that the regular season record might mean something in the Super Bowl, but remember, unlike the other three major sports, there is no home-field advantage in the NFL’s championship game. The team winning the Super Bowl actually had the worse record in 11 of 14 Super Bowls from 2006-2019. In 2018 the Eagles and Patriots had the same 13-3 record.

NFC Dominates Top-Seeded Matchups

There have only been 13 meetings between the two No. 1 seeds in each conference though 53 games, but the NFC has bested the AFC in nine of those contests.

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