The Super Bowl is one heck of a spectacle but in terms of handicapping the game, there are some concrete trends fans of Super Bowl betting can follow.
How often does the favorite win the Super Bowl?
In the last 20 Super Bowls, the favorite is 8-11-1 against the spread.
As you can see below, the AFC had won and covered three in a row prior to Super Bowl LII. They have been the more successful side over the last couple of decades and much of that has to do with the New England Patriots dynasty. The AFC has won 11 of 17 Super Bowls from 2002-18.
The biggest takeaway from this history is that the winner covers the majority of the time. Of the 52 Super Bowls we’ve seen, only nine times (17.3%) has a team won but not covered. The team that’s won has covered nine straight and 12 of the last 13 Super Bowls, from 2006-18.
That gives you a good indication that it’s best to forget the spread and just pick the winner in the Championship Game and go with straight moneyline betting.
Recent Super Bowl Against the Spread Results
|Super Bowl||ATS Result||Score||Line|
|LII||Underdog||Eagles 41, Patriots 33||Patriots -4|
|LI||Favorite||Patriots 34, Falcons 28||Patriots -3|
|50||Underdog||Broncos 24, Panthers 10||Panthers -5|
|XLIX||Favorite||Patriots 28, Seahawks 24||Patriots -1||XLVIII||Underdog||Seahawks 43, Broncos 8||Broncos -2.5|
|XLVII||Underdog||Ravens 34, 49ers 31||49ers -4|
|XLVI||Underdog||Giants 21, Patriots 17||Patriots -3|
|XLV||Favorite||Packers 35, Steelers 31||Packers -2.5|
|XLIV||Underdog||Saints 31, Colts 17||Colts -4.5|
|XLIII||Favorite||Steelers 27, Cardinals 23||Steelers -7|
|XLII||Underdog||Giants 17, Patriots 14||Patriots -12.5|
|XLI||Favorite||Colts 29, Bears 17||Colts -7|
|XL||Favorite||Steelers 21, Seahawks 10||Steelers -4|
|XXXIX||Underdog||Patriots 24, Eagles 21||Patriots -7|
|XXXVIII||Underdog||Patriots 32, Panthers 29||Patriots -7|
|XXXVII||Underdog||Buccaneers 48, Raiders 21||Raiders -4|
|XXXVI||Underdog||Patriots 20, Rams 17||Rams -14|
|XXXV||Favorite||Ravens 34, Giants 7||Ravens -3|
|XXXIV||Push||Cardinals 23, Titans 16||Cardinals -7|
|XXXIII||Favorite||Broncos 34, Falcons 19||Broncos -7.5|
How often does the Super Bowl go over?
In the last 20 Super Bowls, the over bet is 9-10-1.
However, we’re seeing a clear-cut pattern of overs recently, as five of six went past the number from 2013-18. That’s likely because of the fact that the NFL continues to shift the rules to make it easy for games to be higher-scoring.
We’ve seen an average of 56.3 points scored over those six Super Bowls, compared to 43.1 in the eight Super Bowls before that.
Recent Super Bowl Over/Under Results
|Super Bowl||Over/Under Result||Score||Line|
|LII||Over||Eagles 41, Patriots 33||49|
|LI||Over||Patriots 34, Falcons 28||58|
|50||Under||Broncos 24, Panthers 10||43.5|
|XLIX||Over||Patriots 28, Seahawks 24||47.5||XLVIII||Underdog||Seahawks 43, Broncos 8||47.5|
|XLVII||Over||Ravens 34, 49ers 31||47|
|XLVI||Under||Giants 21, Patriots 17||54|
|XLV||Over||Packers 35, Steelers 31||45|
|XLIV||Under||Saints 31, Colts 17||56.5|
|XLIII||Over||Steelers 27, Cardinals 23||46.5|
|XLII||Under||Giants 17, Patriots 14||54.5|
|XLI||Under||Colts 29, Bears 17||48|
|XL||Under||Steelers 21, Seahawks 10||47|
|XXXIX||Under||Patriots 24, Eagles 21||47.5|
|XXXVIII||Over||Patriots 32, Panthers 29||37.5|
|XXXVII||Over||Buccaneers 48, Raiders 21||44|
|XXXVI||Under||Patriots 20, Rams 17||53.5|
|XXXV||Over||Ravens 34, Giants 7||33|
|XXXIV||Under||Cardinals 23, Titans 16||48|
|XXXIII||Push||Broncos 34, Falcons 19||53|
Other Super Bowl Trends
The White Jerseys
This is a little bit of an odd of an odd one but the team wearing their white jerseys has won 12 of the last 14 Super Bowls, from 2005-18. The two that bucked the trend were the Philadelphia Eagles in 2018 and the Green Bay Packers at Super Bowl XLV.
Favorites Tend To Cash In
Something to consider if you like betting the moneylines: favorites tend to win. In the first 52 Super Bowls, 34 winners were favored in the game. That translates to 65.3%. More recently, though, underdogs have won six of seven Super Bowls, from 2012-18.
NFC Loves The Domes
There have been 19 Super Bowls that were hosted inside domes (full-on domes, not including retractable roofs) and the NFC is 15-4 in those contests entering Super Bowl LIII, which will be hosted in Atlanta in Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Defense Wins Championships
Although the NFL is changing to become more offense-oriented, know that the top-ranked scoring defense has defeated the top-ranked scoring offense in five of the six meetings in the first 52 Super Bowls.
Best Regular-Season Record Means Nothing
You’d think that the regular season record might mean something in the Super Bowl, but remember, unlike the other three major sports, there is no home-field advantage in the NFL’s championship game. The team winning the Super Bowl actually had the worse record in 10 of 12 Super Bowls from 2006-2017. In 2018 the Eagles and Patriots had the same 13-3 record.
NFC Dominates Top-Seeded Matchups
There have only been 13 meetings between the two No. 1 seeds in each conference though 52 games, but the NFC has bested the AFC in nine of those contests.