Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Eagles at Falcons
The Falcons (0-1) come home looking to even their record after a deflating 28-12 road loss in the season opener to the Vikings. They battle a familiar nemesis in the Eagles (1-0), who they’ve played in each of the past two seasons, losing both times in tight contests, each decided on the game’s final play.
The Eagles rebounded from a 17-0 deficit in the opener against Washington to win, 32-27, thanks to three touchdown passes from Carson Wentz, including touchdowns of 51 and 53 yards to DeSean Jackson.
Injuries have already hit both teams hard. The Falcons lost their first-round pick, guard Chris Lindstrom, to Injured Reserve with a broken foot. The Eagles will be without their most significant defensive free-agent addition, defensive tackle Malik Jackson, who also went on IR with a Lisfranc sprain.
Eagles coach Doug Pederson is 3-0 against the Falcons in his career, including a 15-10 win in the NFC Division round of the playoffs in 2017. All three games have been decided by single digits.
On Monday, the game opened as an NFL betting pick ’em on several sportsbooks but moved Tuesday to favor the Eagles slightly on SugarHouse, DraftKings and FanDuel. The line bumped again Wednesday, with the Eagles as 2-point favorites in several books. The total is right around 51.
On SugarHouse, the Eagles are 2-point favorites with each team listed at -110. In the money line, the Falcons are +107 as home dogs. On DraftKings, the Eagles are 2-point favorites at -110, with the Falcons at +107 in the money line. On FanDuel, the Eagles remain 1-point favorites at -120, with the Falcons at +100 against the spread and +106 in the moneyline.
You can compare the latest odds from top sportsbooks here.
Betting Falcons-Eagles Against the Spread
On paper, the Eagles appear to be the better, deeper and more balanced team, hence the spread jump during the week.
The spread reflects an Eagles team that many viewed as a Super Bowl contender rebounding from an early 17-0 deficit to defeat Washington in the opener. The Falcons missed the postseason last year and lost their opener on the road to the Vikings, who also missed the playoffs in 2018.
The Eagles were 4-4 on the road against the spread last year, with their only covers coming against the Giants and Jags, non-playoff teams. The Falcons were 3-5 at home against the spread last year, covering against only non-playoff teams.
Falcons-Eagles Moneyline Betting
There’s good value in the Falcons as home dogs in the moneyline given that the Eagles haven’t beaten the Falcons in Atlanta since 2009.
But there’s risk on Atlanta’s side, too. Philly native Matt Ryan is 3-4 career against the Eagles, 1-2 in Atlanta. The 57.4 passer rating Ryan registered in last year’s opener against the Eagles was the 11th worst of his career.
The Falcons were 4-4 at home last year, with all four wins coming against playoff teams; three of their four home losses were against playoff teams. The Eagles were 4-4 on the road last year with just one win against a 2018 playoff team and two losses against teams that made the playoffs.
Falcons-Eagles Over/Under Betting
Past and recent history suggests that any total over 50 is especially high for these teams. This matchup produced 30 total points last year, 25 in 2017 and 39 in 2016. An Eagles-Falcons game hasn’t exceeded 50 points in any of their past five matchups going back to 2012.
Going back to 1990, in 20 showdowns between these NFC teams, only two have exceeded a 51-point total, which is a fairly large sample size that tilts toward taking the under.
But the Eagles flaunt one of their most talented offenses since Pederson became head coach. They outscored Washington 32-3 from midway through the second quarter to late in the fourth before allowing a late touchdown, showing both the Eagles’ prolific scoring and their slow-starting defense.
Eagles cornerbacks Rasul Douglas and Sidney Jones had trouble dealing with the speed of rookie receiver Terry McLaurin (5 catches, 125 yards) and allowed 313 passing yards to Case Keenum. That forebodes trouble against the receiver tandem of Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. And Ryan is a far more accomplished quarterback than Keenum.
Despite the series history, it’s important to be conscious of the firepower on both sides – Zach Ertz, DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery for the Eagles; Jones, Ridley and Devonta Freeman for the Falcons.
Eagles Falcons Notable Prop Bets
- Away Team to Win by 1-6 Point: +340
- Highest Scoring Quarter, Third: +600
- Away Team and Over: +255
- Home Team to Win by 1-6 points: +360
- Total Touchdowns, Over 6.5: +170