Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 7 mins

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Tom Brady Odds: Where Will Patriots QB Play Next Season?

Tom Brady Odds: Where Will Patriots QB Play Next Season?
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Tom Brady is arguably the best quarterback to line up under center. Ever.

He’s also an unrestricted free agent.

Despite his age (42) and a clear downward trend in his production in 2019, Brady is the most sought-after free agent in 2020. Franchises that envision themselves as “one good QB away” from Super Bowl contendership see Brady as that final piece to the puzzle. And they may be right.

Where will Brady play in 2020? Here are the latest odds for the favored teams, posted at PointsBet:

Odds On Tom Brady's 2020-21 Team

TeamOdds
New England Patriots-323
Las Vegas Raiders+400
Los Angeles Chargers+550
Tennessee Titans+1000
Indianapolis Colts+1500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+1800

All odds are current as of publication and subject to change.


Is Brady the answer for these teams? And are there futures bets to consider right now that could really pay off later? Bookies.com senior handicapper Adam Thompson breaks down the situation for the top six teams. Super Bowl betting odds are shown:

Current Super Bowl 55 Odds

BetOdds
New England Patriots+1400
Bet it at PointsBet
Las Vegas Raiders+5000
Bet it at PointsBet
Los Angeles Chargers+5000
Bet it at 888sport
Tennessee Titans+2500
Bet it at William Hill
Indianapolis Colts+4000
Bet it at 888sport
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+6500
Bet it at BetMGM

All odds are current as of publication and subject to change.


New England Patriots

The Patriots are the big favorites to retain their future Hall of Fame QB for a 21st season, perhaps due to the Super Bowl commercial declaration “I’m not going anywhere.” He also got advice from Joe Montana: Don’t leave.

New England is Brady’s team. It’s his offense, he has enormous say in what happens. Does he want to potentially go into a brand-new situation where he may or may not get that same authority, especially 21 seasons into his career?

That said, Brady is one of nine free agent starters. There’s no guarantee in 2020 the Patriots will be “The Patriots” that have dominated the AFC for so long. He may fear coming back to a bad situation more than the unknowns of going to a new place.

THE PICK: The Patriots are +1400 right now to win the Super Bowl, third-lowest among AFC teams and No. 5 overall. There is a lot of uncertainty with Brady and about a great many other things. But the defense ranked No. 1, the rest of the AFC East isn’t quite there and if Brady isn’t QB, they’ll find someone capable to win now (Teddy Bridgewater’s name keeps coming up). Never count out a Belichick-led team.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders lost five of six to end the season and finish 7-9. Now they return all 11 starters on offense, but Jon Gruden reportedly is questioning whether he can take Vegas to the next level with QB Derek Carr, whose conservative style doesn’t mesh with Gruden’s big-play preferences.

Brady can sling it, and Las Vegas is an attractive destination. The weapons are there. The Raiders have let it known they’re interested. And they’ll have cap space if they cut Carr. But if Brady is going to a fresh destination, is it going to be to work for a coach that may not allow No. 12 to come in and install the offense he’s familiar with?

THE PICK: Getting a Brady-led team at +5000 would be a steal. But I don’t think Brady ends up here, and a Brady-less Raiders team isn’t ready for a Super Bowl run.

Los Angeles Chargers

Philip Rivers and the Chargers have parted ways. Will Tom Brady be the one replacing him?
Philip Rivers and the Chargers have parted ways. Will Tom Brady be the one replacing him?

Philip Rivers isn’t coming back to the Chargers after 17 years with the franchise. His tenure led to a lot of wins but no Super Bowl appearances. They need a quarterback – and not much else for a team that ranked No. 10 in total offense and No. 6 in total defense. The defense returns all 11 starters.

And it’s Los Angeles, where Brady does his off-season workouts and most of his off-field business is conducted. It’s likely where he ends up in retirement. He’d be the poster boy for the NFL in L.A., and comes as the Chargers and Rams debut a $4 billion stadium.

Melvin Gordon is likely gone from the backfield, but Austin Ekeler (a restricted free agent) has James White pass-catching potential, and the pass-game weapons are strong. So is the defense.

THE PICK: The Chargers are as low as +2500 at some sportsbooks, but as high as +5000 in others. If Brady isn’t the QB, who knows who they end up with and how successful 2020 is. If Brady is their QB, +5000 is a steal.

Tennessee Titans

Tom Brady and Mike Vrabel won three Super Bowl titles as teammates on the New England Patriots.
Tom Brady and Mike Vrabel won three Super Bowl titles as teammates on the New England Patriots.

Brady is the prize of free agency, but the Titans pulled off the trade of last off-season by acquiring Ryan Tannehill. Coach Mike Vrabel made the switch to Tannehill from Marcus Mariota just in time, and Tannehill and Derrick Henry led Tennessee to a surprise run to the AFC Championship — and a playoff win at New England.

Tannehill’s 117.5 QB rating led the NFL. He’ll likely cost a franchise tag for the Titans, but among these teams, one would think Tennessee is the most set at that position. They can use the $10 million saved on keeping Tannehill and put it toward bringing back Henry, another free agent.

THE PICK: Brady is an admirer of Vrabel. But with Henry a question mark to return and a defense that came through late but overall wasn’t spectacular, Brady likely has other teams higher on his priority list. Any futures pick requires the same wait-and-see mindset.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts ranked 30th in passing last season and Jacoby Brissett was simply OK, finishing with 18 TDs in 15 games and a passer rating of 88. The problem for Indy is, even if it would like to add Brady, jettisoning Brissett may be challenging with the $16 million he’s due.

The Colts have a ton of cap space they can throw at Brady — only the Dolphins have more — and the defense has just one free agent in its two-deep depth chart. That said, the defense ranked just 16th in yards allowed and 18th in points allowed.

THE PICK: The Colts have one of the premier offensive lines in the game, and that has to be attractive. Pairing with TY Hilton should be, as well. But of all the teams on the list, Indy is the longest shot in my mind from an on-field and off-field perspective.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady would surely be an improvement over Jameis Winston, who threw 30 interceptions last season for the Buccaneers.
Tom Brady would surely be an improvement over Jameis Winston, who threw 30 interceptions last season for the Buccaneers.

Rivers is the more likely candidate to lead Tampa Bay's high-powered pass attack in 2020. The Buccaneers are +150 to sign Rivers at PointsBet, just ahead of the Colts (+175), Raiders (+600) and Carolina Panthers (+600).

Head coach Bruce Arians isn’t sold on Jameis Winston being the future of Tampa Bay's offense, and Brady would be the ultimate addition. Perhaps Brady is intrigued with having Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as his targets — as he should be. The Bucs ranked No. 1 in passing with Winston. If the Bucs QB throws 10 INTs rather than the 30 Winston managed (including seven returned for TDs) and the team can improve dramatically in the defensive backfield, this team moves into immediate contender status.

THE PICK: Locking in a potential Brady-led team at +6500 is enticing. The Bucs have the third-most cap space so they can make it work. The defense ranked No. 1 against the run last year. Even if you’re a believer in Rivers and the front office fixing the pass defense, the price isn’t bad. This one is worth considering.

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