UFC on ESPN 4 Betting Picks: Back Hardy And Underdog Dos Anjos
On Saturday night in San Antonio, Texas, former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos will continue on his quest to claim welterweight gold when he takes on rising contender Leon Edwards.
Also on the main card, controversial figure and former NFL All-Pro Greg Hardy makes his third octagon appearance, doing battle with fellow Dana White Tuesday Night Contender Series graduate, Juan Adams. The odds are close on both fights, but are the fights as close as the odds suggest? Here are my picks for fans of UFC betting:
UFC on ESPN 4 Betting Tips
|dos Anjos over Edwards||+260|
|Hardy over Adams||-112|
PICK 1: Rafael dos Anjos over Leon Edwards
888Sport currently has dos Anjos as a +100 underdog to Edwards’ -125 favorite and it’s easy to see why. This is a tricky fight to breakdown. Despite being a former champion, Dos Anjos is still one of the most underrated fighters in MMA and since moving up to welterweight, RDA has only lost to two men: the current champion, Kamaru Usman, and former interim champion Colby Covington.
Both men employed the same high-pressure, grappling heavy attack that is incredibly effective against RDA. Likewise, Edwards is a well-rounded and underrated fighter, but his style is not the kind that hasgiven RDA trouble. Edwards has a lot of attributes in his favor - he has a four-inch reach advantage, is seven years younger, and is a southpaw, but Edwards prefers a slower paced fight that plays into dos Anjos’ hands.
RDA’s style is best served when he can be the one pressing the pace and he should be able to do that here so I like a bet on dos Anjos to win, as well as a bet on Dos Anjos by Decision at +260 per BetFair.
PICK 2: Greg Hardy over Juan Adams
The main event isn’t the only closely contested obut of the evening. BetAmerica had Adams as an opening -125 favorite to Hardy’s +100, and it makes sense although those odds are now split at -112. Both Hardy and Adams are unproven prospects in the sport, who have shown flashes of excellence but also moments of weakness.
Moreover, this is heavyweight MMA, so those moments of weakness can result in a loss quickerthan a Jorge Masvidal flying knee. Both Hardy and Adams are likely to come out throwing punches until one of them falls down andfrom a technique standpoint, Adams likely edges it. He certainly is the more committed worker of the two, throwing a high volume of strikes for a heavyweight.
But whatever technical edges Adams may possess, Hardy will likely render useless with superior athleticism. The main question for Adams is whether he can weather the storm of Hardy and have his cardio take overin the later rounds. I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened but I wouldn’t bet on it either. That’s why I like a bet on Hardy at -112.