UFC Fight Night 162: Reyes vs. Weidman Odds to Back
The UFC returns to Boston Friday night with a marquee matchup. In the main event, former middleweight champion Chris Weidman makes his move to the light heavyweight division where he takes on undefeated Dominick Reyes.
It’s an important fight in a wide-open division for UFC betting fans that could ultimately tell us who the next challenger is for Jon Jones.
Dominick Reyes Vs. Chris Weidman analysis
Reyes had an impressive start to his MMA career outside of the UFC, going 6-0 with five first-round KOs. He then translated that success to the grandest stage in MMA, having won all five of his bouts in the UFC, three by first-round finish.
However, in his last two outings, Reyes has fallen back somewhat, going to decisions with former title challengers Ovince Saint Preux and Volkan Oezdemir. That begs the question whether his earlier success was due to overmatched competition as much as his own skill set.
That skill set happens to be quite dangerous, though. He’s an excellent athlete for the division, with devastating KO power who works at a high pace and has a willingness to throw flashy, exciting strikes. He’s also an active submission threat and a good defensive wrestler, all qualities that figure to be a problem for Weidman.
In many ways, Weidman is the inverse of Reyes. He barnstormed the UFC, winning the middleweight belt and becoming the guy to derail Anderson Silva’s legendary title reign.
He defended the belt a few times and looked poised to be “The Next All-Time Great” in the division before getting mauled by Luke Rockhold, a loss which has combusted his entire career.
Weidman has lost four of his last five bouts, all of them by KO, with his lone win coming over Kelvin Gastelum. He nearly knocked Weidman out in the first round before he was saved by the bell. The puzzling thing is, in all of those fights, Weidman was doing well until he was stopped.
Prediction and Best Bet
The move to 205 pounds makes a lot of sense for Weidman. One of his biggest issues has always been that he’s not a good athlete, and the light heavyweight division is, by and large, populated with guys who aren’t great athletes.
However, Reyes is the exception and figures to be one of the worst possible matchups for Weidman. At this point it’s pretty safe to say that while Weidman still has elite skills, his chin is no longer able to stand up to the heavy artillery of other elite fighters.
And Reyes is one of the light heavyweight division’s most dangerous young talents. Over the course of five rounds, Reyes is going to find the shot to put Weidman away, so I love a bet on Reyes straight at -188 per FanDuel. I also like jumping on the Reyes by TKO prop..