Welcome to the knockout stage of the Women’s World Cup. Matchday 3 was turbulent, exciting, and full of heartbreak for several teams. The draw finalized an utterly brutal knock out stage for the US or France.
Picks so far have gone 8/15 after a solid 4/5 on Matchday 3, but there’s a lot less value in the Round of 16. Only a couple bets this time, instead of the 5-per-round like the group stage.
Market differences might result in different odds between US and international bookmakers.
Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Betting Tips
|Germany vs Nigeria: Under 3.5||-148||8/13|
|Norway vs Australia: Over 2.5||-148||4/6|
|Netherlands to defeat Japan||-122||4/5|
Women's World Cup Round of 16 Analysis
Germany vs Nigeria: Under 3.5: The Germans haven’t been the most free-scoring team in the tournament. Sure they scored 4 on South Africa, but South Africa’s defense isn’t quite as solid as Nigeria. France only scored once on them, and under dubious circumstances at best.
Die Nationalelf might get rolling now that they’ve found the net with some regularity, but Nigeria is a surprisingly tough out. Germany will likely win, they simply have that much more quality on their side. But scoring 4 to beat the over/under? Much less likely, so take the under on this game.
Norway vs Australia: Over 2.5: On the flip side, Norway/Australia should see plenty of goals. Norway hasn’t seen a game go under 3 goals yet, nor has Australia. The two have very potent attacks, and defenses that aren’t great.
Australia also has Sam Kerr, who’s four goals has her tied at the top of the Golden Boot race, and widely considered one of the best strikers in the world. Kerr’s a threat no matter what, and she’s not the only threat for The Matildas. You can say almost the same thing about Caroline Graham Hansen, minus 4 goals.
Netherlands to defeat Japan: The Dutch remain one of the best attacking sides in the tournament, and despite spluttering some against New Zealand, is now starting to get the offense rolling.
Japan, on the other hand, is still trying to find their way. 1-1-1 in group stage games, the Japanese lost 2-0 to England on Matchday 3. Unfortunately for Japan, the Netherlands are roughly on the same level as England, with slightly less defense and significantly more attacking power.
Women’s World Cup Golden Boot Odds
|Player (Country)||Goals Scored||American||Fractional|
|Alex Morgan (USA)||5||-200||1/6|
|Samantha Kerr (Australia)||5||+250||5/2|
|Ellen White (England)||3||+3000||30/1|
|Carli Lloyd (USA)||3||+3300||33/1|
|Eugenie Le Sommer (France)||2||+4000||40/1|
|Vivianne Meidema (Netherlands)||2||+4000||40/1|
|Christiana Girelli (Italy)||3||+4500||45/1|
|Kosovare Asllani (Sweden)||2||+5000||50/1|
|Jennifer Hermoso (Spain)||2||+5000||50/1|
|Samantha Mewis (USA)||2||+5000||50/1|
|Rose Lavelle (USA)||2||+7000||70/1|
Top Goalscorer Analysis
Alex Morgan didn’t have a great day against Sweden, and was rightfully pulled at halftime. In the end, it meant that she ended the group stage properly tied with Sam Kerr at the top of the Golden Boot race at 5 each. Morgan has the better chance of advancing than Kerr, but she still a threat.
Christiane, for Brazil, is right behind them at 4 goals. Unfortunately for her, she faces the mighty France and her chances of moving on past the Round of 16. It’s problematic at best for her, at least Sam Kerr and Australia have a real chance of beating Norway.
Ellen White is the most likely player to catch Morgan and Kerr right now. With three goals in three games, she and England have a decent draw out to the semifinals. A match against Cameroon could (and should) lead to some results for her.
Carli Lloyd also have 3 goals, but she couldn’t get much going against Sweden either in her half of play. She’s not the first choice striker for the US, unfortunately, so she might have to wait her turn for a chance. Eugenie Le Sommer sits at fifth with 2 goals and a tough game vs Brazil ahead.
Women’s World Cup Winner Odds
The US is now in command of the tournament. The US leads the favorites at +180, and France sits at +400. What used to be nearly neck and neck odds has opened up for The Yanks. Germany has retaken third at +700 and England falls to +800. The Germans get the benefit of not facing a top-4 favorite until the final.