YellaWood 500 Odds, Tips & Picks for NASCAR at Talladega
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It’s all a scramble now. A caution during green-flag pit stops late in last weekend’s event at Las Vegas jumbled the finishing order by burying many NASCAR title contenders in the back, just in time for the biggest racing roulette wheel of them all.
Kevin Harvick remains the NASCAR odds favorite for the Cup Series championship at +150, but right now only surprise Vegas winner Kurt Busch has punched his ticket to the next round. Everyone else has to first weather Talladega Superspeedway, whose unpredictability is reflected in the eight drivers spanning a narrow odds range of +1000 to +1400. Four of them — Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano — share the role of NASCAR betting favorite for Sunday’s YellaWood 500.
Blaney has won the past two races at Talladega, but there’s no guarantee of anything with the Big One lurking around every turn. So grab some fried catfish and let’s dive into your best bets for Sunday.
YellaWood 500 Odds & Best Bets
|Denny Hamlin to Win||+1100|
Bet it at BetMGM
|Ryan Blaney Top 3||+325|
Bet it at Resorts
|Brad Keselowski Top 3||+350|
Bet it at FOX Bet
|Chase Elliott Top Chevrolet||+450|
Bet it at DraftKings
|Kurt Busch Top 10||+110|
Bet it at Unibet
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Top 10||+120|
Bet it at DraftKings
|Aric Almirola Top 10||+100 |
Bet it at Unibet
Odds current as of publication and subject to change
Denny Hamlin to Win, +1100 (BetMGM)
One of the few title favorites to race his way back to the front at Las Vegas, Hamlin placed third to snap a three-race skid outside the top 10. One of the best superspeedway racers of his generation, Hamlin now heads back to his comfort zone — he’s placed fourth or better in the last three ‘Dega races where he hasn’t crashed. He should contend Sunday if he can make it to the final lap. Get the best odds on Hamlin at BetMGM.
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Ryan Blaney Top 3, +325 (Resorts)
After a long, inconsistent stretch of starts at Talladega, Blaney figured something out in late 2019 and heads back to Alabama this weekend as the two-time defending track champion. Blaney does not ride around in the back all race; he led 98 laps combined over his past two starts. Nothing is guaranteed, but Blaney’s recent knack for staying out of trouble at Talladega shouldn’t go unnoticed among bettors. If you agree, bet on Blaney at Resorts.
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Brad Keselowski Top 3, +350 (FOX Bet)
Don’t get caught up in his stretch of poor finishes at Talladega, given the capriciousness of pack racing on one of NASCAR’s widest tracks. Keselowski hasn’t finished better than 13th there since his most recent win in 2017 — but he also leads all active drivers with five victories and continues to loom just beyond Harvick and Hamlin in the championship race. Despite his recent results at Talladega, Keselowski is absolutely capable of winning there again. Ride with Keselowski at FOX Bet.
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Chase Elliott Top Chevrolet, +450 (DraftKings)
The 2019 spring Talladega winner figures to be a contender Sunday, but from a value perspective he offers a better potential payout to lead Chevrolet rather than finish in the top three or top 10. Elliott’s recent Talladega results are all over the place, but he also is historically strong on superspeedways and deserves a place in any bettor’s strategy. One knock: He doesn’t lead many laps at the 2.66-mile oval, making him more vulnerable to a crash. Grab the bet at DraftKings.
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Kurt Busch Top 10, +110 (Unibet)
The fact that Busch doesn’t own a Talladega victory is one of the great head-scratchers in modern NASCAR, given how awesome he can be at the place. He has pushed others to victory there repeatedly and his 21 career top-10s at Talladega are easily best among active drivers. Busch’s Vegas win was evidence of a career renaissance with Chip Ganassi, and ’Dega is a place where he almost always runs toward the front. Take the elder Busch brother at Unibet.
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Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Top 10, +120 (DraftKings)
Who owns the best average finish at Talladega among drivers with more than one career start? Stenhouse, whose average of 10.9 speaks to his ability to cut through tight traffic in the draft. A 2017 winner at Talladega with Jack Roush, Stenhouse hasn’t had much success this season with his small JTG/Daugherty outfit. But something changes at Talladega, where he has placed ninth or better in four of his last five starts. Put a wager on Stenhouse at DraftKings.
Aric Almirola Top 10, +100 (Unibet)
Almirola continues to cling to a playoff bid thanks to top-10s in 14 of his past 18 starts on ovals. Now he heads to his best track, where he won in 2018 and hasn’t finished worse than ninth since 2016. He’ll need a different strategy than the one he employed at Daytona in August, where he rode in the back trying to stay out of trouble and ran out of time to get to the front. Bet Almirola at Unibet.
NASCAR at Talladega Race Information
Race Name: YellaWood 500
When: 2 p.m. ET Sunday
Where: Talladega Superspeedway, Talladega, Alabama