Ayr 3.50 (Gold Cup) tips – two value selections to back

Ayr 3.50 (Gold Cup) tips - two value selections to back

Muntadab

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Betting Tip: @ Muntadab @ 16/1 with ladbrokes

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that Irish raider Son Of Rest is thrown in here off his old mark (100), having been raised 10lb for finishing a close second behind the 111-rated Havana Grey (who was getting 1lb) in a Group 1 at the Curragh just six days ago on the soft ground he loves. But that was over 5f and while Fozzy Stack’s gelding stays this extra furlong, both his wins have come over the minimum and there’s a chance he might not last home in the testing conditions. Besides, Group form rarely holds up in this contest – those to have contested a Group 2 or 3 last time are 0-23 in the last decade, with handicap form being the key instead – and that’s enough reasons to take him on at the current 11/2.

Were not short of decent alternatives of course and one way of whittling the 25-runner field further is to eliminate those horses drawn on either wing – in the last ten runnings the bottom seven stalls are 0-69 while those drawn 23 or higher are 0-45. That does rule out a couple of fancied runners in Flying Pursuit and Golden Apollo, who have drawn stalls there and four respectively, as well as top weight Perfect Pasture who will exit from box 24. I’m not saying they can’t win of course but it certainly makes life more difficult.

So who fits the bill from the remainder, you may well be asking? Well, given the inflated odds on offer it’s a race that requires at least a couple of stabs at finding the winner and first up is Roger Fell’s MUNTADAB, who has been on my radar for this ever since his trainer mentioned it as a target in a Stable Tour back in June. That was coming shortly his close third in a hot York handicap over 7f, a race he might have won had the ground been soft, and he’s stuck to that trip in a couple of runs since. However, he’s no specialist over that trip having won and run some crackers in defeat over a furlong shorter and his extra stamina is no bad thing in a race of this nature, with not many getting home.

He’s certainly handicapped to be win on the same mark as his York third and just 3lb higher than when scoring at Musselburgh last October (soft), while his most recent outing at Chester at the beginning of this month was better than it looks and will have have teed him up nicely for this. The final pieces of the jigsaw are his draw in stall 12 and the return to form of his stable, with a couple of winners and a second in the last four days. Ladbrokes’ 16/1 will do nicely then.

The second pick is Kevin Ryan’s TOMMY TAYLOR (stall 19) as he is back on a winning mark of 97, having slipped 12lb since the start of the season, and hinted that he was ready to take advantage when beaten a little over a neck into third at Ascot 14 days ago. That was on fast ground but he’s won on good to soft – a York Listed contest over this trip last September – and was beaten a neck on heavy ground when making his racecourse debut. He’s also won over 7f, so his stamina is assured, and his trainer Kevin Ryan has a good recent record in this with two winners and a third from 20 runners since 2011. The other thing to like is his 20/1 price tag with Ladbrokes (who may well boost your odds).

SELECTIONS

Muntadab @ 16/1 Ladbrokes
Tommy Taylor @ 20/1 Ladbrokes

Betting Tip: @ Muntadab @ 16/1 with ladbrokes

All odds were correct at time of posting.

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