Jersey Stakes tips – improving Ibn Malik value at a double-figure price

Jersey Stakes tips – improving Ibn Malik value at a double-figure price

Ibn Malik

Ibn Malik

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Betting Tip: Ibn Malik @ 8/1 with skybet

The Jersey Stakes is a Group 3 for horses aged three or older and is run over the specialist trip of 7f, traditionally opening Wednesday’s card.

Who’s favourite?
John Gosden’s Castle Harbour arrives here unbeaten after two starts (both over this trip) and, while the son of Kyllachy has got to step up again after winning a competitive York handicap off a mark of 86, his trainer had no hesitation in nominating this Group 3 as his target in the post-race interview. He won his maiden at Newmarket on soft ground so should have no problem with the conditions (they were calling it ‘soft’ on Tuesday) and he will have the services of Frankie Dettori.

Who else is fancied?
Hugo Palmer, who broke his Royal Ascot duck with Galileo Gold on Tuesday, has a fine chance to double his tally with Gifted Master, especially as connections have opted for this race over Friday’s Commonwealth Cup over 6f. Only one of his six wins have come over this longer trip, but he looks best suited to it and his sole Group 3 success came over a mile. He has shown signs of temperament, though, and likes to race on his own away from his rivals, which might be a problem in this big field (21).

Thikriyaat is unbeaten in three runs, including a Listed race at Newmarket last time where he showed a good attitude to hold on by a neck from the reopposing Dragon Hall, who will be sharper for that run. Paul Hanagan has chosen Thikriyaat over Ibn Malik, who is on the same ownership, but that must have been a tough decision as the latter horse won a Newmarket handicap off 107 last time and appears to be still improving.

Richard Fahey has two good candidates in Ribchester, who was third in the 2000 Guineas, and Birchwood, although both carry penalties for previous Group successes.

Any decent outsiders?
It’s 14/1 bar those already mentioned and you can make a case of sorts for several at bigger prices, with French raider Bolting perhaps the most interesting. The impeccably-bred son of War Front has won both his starts this season at Chantilly, coming from last to first in a Listed race over 7f last time. He’s yet to encounter ground as soft as this, though.

Who’s going to win?

This is a tricky race to call and a tentative vote goes to Charlie Hills’ IBN MALIK, a stablemate of last year’s winner Dutch Connection. A smart performer at two, when he twice finished second in Group 2s behind Galileo Gold and Emotionless, he has clearly improved for a gelding operation over the winter and is fully effective with give underfoot.

SELECTION

Ibn Malik 1pt each-way @ 10/1 Betway

Betting Tip: Ibn Malik @ 8/1 with skybet

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