Ludlow 3.30 tips – The Perfect Crime a steal at double-figure odds

Ludlow 3.30 tips - The Perfect Crime a steal at double-figure odds

Ludlow

The Perfect Crime

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Betting Tip: The Perfect Crime @ 10/1 with bet365

Ludlow is expected to beat the weather this afternoon and there a couple of interesting each-way bets to be had at the Shropshire track.

The conditional jockeys handicap hurdle over 2m7f (due off 3.30pm) has attracted of ten and none are what you might call progressive. Half are ten or older and solid recent form is thin on the ground, so it’s perhaps understandable that bookmakers make the Venetia Williams-trained Market Option favourite as he did finish second (of five) a couple of starts back and the stable continues in good form. He may well win but with three non-completions in his last five runs, he’s not for me at just 3/1.

Instead, let’s take a chance on the Ian Williams-trained THE PERFECT CRIME who sits at the bottom of the weights and will carry just 10st thanks to his rider’s 8lb claim. He’s clearly had some problems as he was restricted to just one run last term and this is his first run back since October 2014. However, he’s the joint youngest horse in the race at seven and therefore has time in his side and has shown enough in previous starts to suggest he’s up to winning a small race like this.

His standout piece of form is a third to Sign Of A Victory at Doncaster in February 2014 and, whilst beaten a fair way on that occasion, it’s worth noting that horse is now a Listed winner over hurdles and is rated in the 150s, while the fourth horse home Verano has won twice since and is on a mark of 127. Clearly the selection could be very well treated on just 92 and being a son of Oscar he should relish the step up to three miles having been campaigned mainly over two miles previously.

I admit to knowing very little about his rider Toby Wheeler, apart from that he’s had a couple of winners over hurdles from a handful of rides, but his trainer is renowned for having the odd successful tilt at the ring and has been amongst the winners of late. Even more encouragement can be taken from the stable record at the track. Over the last five seasons, Williams has saddled 50 runners here and nine (18%) have ended up in the winner’s circle.

Given all that, the selection has to be worth a punt at current odds and any market support would only increase confidence.

Betting Tip: The Perfect Crime @ 10/1 with bet365

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