Queen Elizabeth II Stakes tips – improving Ribchester the bet at 11/4

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes tips - improving Ribchester the bet at 11/4

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Ribchester

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Betting Tip: Ribchester @ 11/4 with williamhill

A field of 13 will go to post for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over 1m, due off 3.10pm.

Who’s favourite?

Aidan O’Brien had the choice of three races for Minding so his decision to drop his dual Classic-winning heroine back in trip is perhaps a tip in itself. While it’s unusual for an Oaks winner to drop down to a mile for the end of the season, there can be little doubt that she has the necessary pace to cope – the outstanding turn of foot she showed when putting the 1m2f Nassau Stakes to bed is confirmation of that. Last time out she did nothing wrong when coming home third in the Irish Champion Stakes, with only the outstanding duo of Almanzor and Found in front of her, and this is arguably an easier opportunity. She’s a worthy favourite then.

Who’s next best?

Richard Fahey’s Ribchester couldn’t match Galileo Gold (who reopposes) or Massaat in the 2000 Guineas, but he’s got better through the season, scoring clear victories either of a narrow defeat in the Sussex Stakes, won by Galileo Gold. This has been his aim since landing the Jacques Le Marois in August and his trainer has been very pleased with him since. Likely still improving, the track and the way the race should be run to suit as he loves to chase a strong pace and will have the help of a pacemaker in Barchan.

And the rest?

As good as the aforementioned Galileo Gold was when landing the 2000 Guineas in April, it would be some training feat from Hugo Palmer to get him to peak one more time for this. The trainer is sounding confident in that respect but his charge has been on the go a long time and the record of Guineas winners at this time of year doesn’t bode well. Since 1988, 20 winners of the Newmarket Classic have run in September and October and their collective tally of 32 races has yielded ten wins compared to 22 defeats. The last three to run in this race have all been beaten. Coming off what was his least effective performance of the season, an eighth place at Deauville, he’s not for me.

The rest are priced at 10/1 or bigger and they are headed by Irish 2000 Guineas winner Awtaad, who returned to winning ways when seeing off solid yardstick Custom Cut in a Group 2 at Leopardstown in September. The bare form leaves him with something to find with the market leaders and he’s run below-par on his two forays across the Irish Sea.

Lightning Spear is entitled to take his chance after a clear win in the Celebration Mile last time out but he’s always been found out at this level (0-5), while Jet Setting was flattered by her Irish 1000 Guineas victory over Minding and ideally needs the mud to be flying to show her best.

What’s the verdict?
The Classic generation have dominated this race with three-year-olds accounting for 21 of the last 30 winners (seven of the last ten) and it rarely pays to look beyond the obvious, with the last ten winners all emerging from the top three in the market. With Galileo Gold opposable for the reasons given, it looks a match between Minding and RIBCHESTER, with narrow preference for the latter at a bigger price. He has done nothing but improve this season and may well take another step forward after a short break. His trainer’s confidence is infectious.

Back Ribchester @ 11/4 Hills

Betting Tip: Ribchester @ 11/4 with williamhill

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