Royal Hunt Cup tips – traditional cavalry charge a Breeze for Ivory gelding

Royal Hunt Cup tips – traditional cavalry charge a Breeze for Ivory gelding

Hunt Cup

Librisa Breeze

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Betting Tip: Librisa Breeze @ 20/1 with bet365

The Royal Hunt Cup is a big-field handicap run over the straight mile and is always one of the big betting races of the meeting, with some notable gambles landed.

Who’s favourite?
Sir Michael Stoute’s Convey has been favourite for this pretty much since betting opened having shown improved form for a gelding operation and the application of cheek-pieces on his last two starts. Seriously unlucky at York, where he had to weave his way through the big field to get a run before going down by a neck to Always Smile (who runs in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes earlier), he then failed by another neck to peg back Home Of The Brave in a Group 3 at Haydock, an improved effort that leaves him officially 7lb well-in.

Who else is fancied?
Portage is another who is well-in under a 5lb penalty for winning a Listed race over 1m2f at the Curragh just 11 days ago and he also has a course and distance success last July to his name, albeit off a 15lb lower mark. Mick Halford’s colt clearly handles a big field as he finished second in the Irish Cambridgeshire and was second in his group (fifth overall) in the Newmarket Cambridgeshire last September after being hammered into 9/2 favouritism. Given he stays further, he’ll be doing all his best work late on. Too late, perhaps?

Librisa Breeze won twice for Jeremy Noseda last season and looked to have improved again on his first start for Dean Ivory at Wolverhampton in April, when showing a smart turn of foot to come from last to first under today’s pilot Robert Winston. That wasn’t a great race, admittedly, but he’s gone up just 5lb as a result and that was enough to get him into this race off bottom weight.

Donncha, who was a close second in the Spring Mile and fifth in a hot York handicap last time, is another worth considering with Tom Marquand claiming 3lb off him. The ground might be too slow for recent Nottingham winner Spirit Raiser, but it won’t inconvenience last year’s fourth Balty Boys, who is 8lb lower when you take his rider Callum Shepherd’s claim into account.

Any decent outsiders?
Two previous winners are available at big odds: GM Hopkins is bidding to repeat last year’s victory off a 9lb higher mark, while 2013 winner Belgian Bill, who added the Betfred Mile at Glorious Goodwood last season off today’s mark, is also back for more.

They can’t be discounted by any means at bet365’s 22/1 and 40/1 respectively, but the same firm’s 33/1 on Instant Attraction really catches the eye. The five-year-old hasn’t won since last June but he’s been running well, only being headed close home at Thirsk and Epsom last time. He would have 2lb more to carry if the latest effort could be taken into account and the recent rain ensures he gets his ideal underfoot conditions.

Best bookie offer?
Several firms are offering a commendable five places for each-way backers, but Paddy Power have gone one step further with six places up for grabs.

Who’s going to win?
Convey looked way too short at 5/1 a week ago but he’s tempting now he’s drifted out to over twice that price (11/1) with Paddy Power. However, he may not be totally straightforward and has found a way to get beat the last twice, so I’m going with LIBRISA BREEZE instead for the reasons given above. Having also made a case for INSTANT ATTRACTION at bigger odds, he’s also going to be carrying my each-way money. They’re drawn 12 and 26 respectively and if I had to hazard a guess over any draw bias, I’d say the far side (low numbers) might just have an edge as in last year’s race, but much depends on where the pace is.

SELECTIONS

Librisa Breeze each-way @ 12/1 Paddy Power (¼ odds, 1.2.3.4.5.6)
Instant Attraction each-way @ 33/1 bet365 (¼ odds, 1.2.3.4.5)

Betting Tip: Librisa Breeze @ 20/1 with bet365

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