Salisbury 3.40 tips – Mia has her conditions

Salisbury 3.40 tips - Mia has her conditions

Mia Tesoro

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Betting Tip: @ Mia Tesoro each-way @ 18/1 with bet365

There’s Listed action at Salisbury this afternoon and the track will be pleased with the turnout for their 1m2f fillies’ contest as nine are set to go to post.

According to the ratings, they’ve all got 2016 Chain Of Daisies to beat as she has at least 6lb in hand over her rivals. But she hasn’t run to anywhere near her best in two starts this season and while she seems sure to adopt her customary front-running tactics, I’m not sure I can trust her at current odds.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Crystal Hope is favourite with some firms despite having plenty to find on the ratings and that is surely based on her connections and breeding, with her dam being a half-sister to Group 2 winner Crystal Ocean. However, she appeared to find fast ground against her when a well beaten third last time, having won a Sandown novice on good to soft previously, and the forecast fast terrain is therefore a concern.

One who won’t mind the ground one bit is Charlie Fellowes’ MIA TESORO and I’m not going to let her big price put me off. Once rated just 57, she has improved out of all recognition since, winning five times, including the Listed Nottinghamshire Oaks two starts back. That wasn’t totally unexpected as she had finished an unlucky fourth in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes previously, doing all her best work late on in that 1m1f contest after a far from clear passage.

Not disgraced on her most recent outing in a Group 3 run on Newcastle’s Tapeta, she’s going to appreciate the return to fast ground – her form figures on good to firm or faster read 111104 – and a mile and a quarter is her best trip. Given her ideal conditions, she must have every chance of more black type by finishing in the frame, which makes her a cracking each-way bet at the current 16/1, and it wouldn’t be a total surprise if she scooped first prize.

Betting Tip: @ Mia Tesoro each-way @ 18/1 with bet365

All odds were correct at time of posting.

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