Taking Celestial Path could lead to profit

Celestial Path looks a lively outsider

The 2000 Guineas could see a shock result.

Celestial Path

View Odds

Betting Tip: Celestial Path @ 20/1 with bet365

The first Classic of the new flat season is quickly upon us and Saturday’s renewal of the 2000 Guineas has a familiar look to it with an Aidan O’Brien-trained inmate heading the market,

O’Brien has been represented in every 2000 Guineas since King Of Kings gave him a dream start in 1998 and he’s won it a further five times, most recently with Camelot in 2012. That said, he’s also saddled six beaten favourites and is usually mob-handed with at least a couple of runners flying the flag for Ballydoyle. Tellingly, though, in the last nine renewals in which he has saddled multiple entries his shortest-priced runner has finished ahead of their stablemates.

That’s a clear pointer to his Gleneagles, the current favourite at around the 11/4 mark, and a negative for his other representative Ol’ Man River, who is surely going to be better over middle distances anyway. As a son of Galileo, Gleneagles should also get further in time but, judging by a juvenile campaign which saw him finish first past the post five times from six starts (he was demoted to third in the Lagardere at Longchamp in October), he is also blessed with plenty of zip.

Ladbrokes, who have traditionally had a good line to the stable runners, go just 9/4 and if he’s as good as they think he is at home even that price could look big come the off. However, I still can’t get myself to back him given that plenty of his rivals have similar profiles and possess the potential to be far better than they’ve shown so far. They are all much bigger prices too.

So, while I concede that Gleneagles is a perfectly plausible winner, I’m going value-hunting and CELESTIAL PATH fits the bill. His trainer Sir Mark Prescott isn’t known for having runners at around Guineas time, let alone the winner of the first Classic, but he doesn’t tilt at windmills either and the son of Footstepsinthesand, himself a Guineas winner, looks a top-class miler in the making. After winning his first two starts at two in impressive style, he found the ground far too soft when third to Elm Park in the Racing Post Trophy on his final start and that won’t be a problem at Newmarket if the forecast is correct. In addition to his sire, many of his close relatives have top class form at a mile and he looks to have inherited plenty of their talent. At 25/1, he’s well worth an each-way interest with four places up for grabs at bet365.

Betting Tip: Celestial Path @ 20/1 with bet365

Leave a Reply