York 3.40 (Nunthorpe) tips – Wind Fire has red-hot each-way chance

York 3.40 (Nunthorpe) tips - Wind Fire has red-hot each-way chance


Wind Fire

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Betting Tip: Wind Fire @ 40/1 with bet365

This has to be the race of the entire meeting and one I’ve been looking forward to all week, not least for the fact we get to see Wesley Ward’s Royal Ascot heroine Acapulco strut her stuff. She’s a massive filly with a huge stride and that proved far too much for her Queen Mary rivals, which included Thursday’s impressive Lowther Stakes winner Besharah back in third.

Now she’s bidding to become only the third two-year-old winner of this race and the first since Kingsgate Native in 2007, with 11 other juveniles trying and failing. That said, only two of the failures were sent off at a single-figure price and Acapulco looks in a different league to them judged on her last visit to these shores. But is she really a 2/1 chance now taking on older and far more experienced sprinters, several of whom are proven at this level?

I think not and while a part of me would love to see her win, I simply can’t have her at the price. And it’s not like we’re short of alternatives, possibly headed by dual winner Sole Power, who is the top-rated horse in the field, and Muthmir, who arrives here on the back of a career-best effort in a Group 2 at Goodwood, where he had a few of these in behind. They are very plausible winners.

However, we’ve had several shock results in recent years – winners at 20/1, 40/1 and 100/1 in the last five runnings – and we might get another with David Brown’s WIND FIRE currently priced at 40/1 with bet365, who are offering four places instead of the standard three. That price looks a tad generous as she been running well in defeat this season, including a third place finish in the Group 2 Temple Stakes in May and she would have almost certainly won a Group 3 at Sandown two starts back with a clear run.

I’ve watched her on several occasions now and, while all her wins have been over the minimum trip, the impression is that she needs 6f as she tends to get outpaced before flying home at the finish. With this race likely to be run a furious gallop, it could well suit those horses who like to come off the pace and it’s not too hard to imagine her grabbing a place late on under Jamie Spencer, who has guided her to two of her three successes. That would ensure a 10/1 payday at current odds and we might even hit the jackpot.

Betting Tip: Wind Fire @ 40/1 with bet365

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