York 3.40 tips – a punt on Cox runner could prove Profitable

York 3.40 tips - a punt on Cox runner could prove Profitable

Profitable

Profitable

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Betting Tip: Profitable @ 6/1 with coral

A cracking renewal of this Group 1 and the big question for punters is: can July Cup winner Limato be as effective over the minimum trip? Henry Candy’s charge, a prolific winner over 6f / 7f, started this term over a mile in the Lockinge and was far from disgraced in fourth. But given his natural speed it was no surprise to see him drop back to 6f last time and he duly routed his Newmarket rivals, including several of today’s runners, and given he was nicely in charge at the furlong pole it’s easy to understand why connections have decided to supplement him for this contest, his first try over 5f. However, the distance aside, he simply must have fast ground to be fully effective and the weather forecast is ominous, with rain expected to hit the track from midday onwards. For that reason, I can’t even consider putting him up as a bet here at just 3/1.

Any softening of the ground from the current good to firm will also dent the chances of Goldream, Easton Angel and Goodwood winner Take Cover, while the likes of Mecca’s Angel and PROFITABLE will relish it. The former is the second top-rated runner in the race (just 1lb behind Limato) courtesy of her win in last year’s race on good to soft, and she bounced back from a poor run at Royal Ascot when beating the reopposing Brando at the Curragh last time (good to yielding). But she was beaten by Profitable in the Temple Stakes back in May, albeit narrowly, and Clive Cox’s runner looks the one to be on at Coral’s 6/1. That won’t last long if the rain materialises (?) as all his best form is on cut and he’s already shown he’s the best older five-furlong horse in the country with three Group wins in 2016, including the Group 1 King’s Stand – his only defeat (a respectable fourth mind) came on fast ground in the July Cup behind Limato.

The presence of a couple of two-year-old runners getting huge lumps of weight adds further intrigue and of these Mark Johnston’s Yalta is respected, but I’m happy to stick with the selection and will be ramping up the stakes if he gets his ground.

Betting Tip: Profitable @ 6/1 with coral

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