College Football Playoff Winner Odds

2024 College Football Playoff Odds

Who are the top 2024 College Football Playoff title contenders?

Georgia

It took Georgia 41 years to climb the mountain after winning the 1980 national championship, finally getting the best of Alabama and taking the title in 2022. The next one only took 364 days. And the college football futures odds say the Bulldogs are a solid bet to become the first team to win three straight since Minnesota pulled it off in 1934-1936.

The Bulldogs’ odds on betting apps are nearly twice as short as the next team on the board, with Georgia a significant preseason favorite at +260. We don’t yet know who will replace quarterback Stetson Bennett. We do know the Bulldogs have at least two or three viable options with plenty of time to sort it out before Week 1. Aside from returning one of the most talented rosters in the country, the Bulldogs’ schedule looks like a cakewalk.

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Georgia plays UT Martin, Ball State and UAB in nonconference and won’t see Alabama or LSU in the regular season. With a championship culture firmly in place and a gettable slate, the Bulldogs aren’t going anywhere in 2023.

Alabama

The Crimson Tide were co-favorites with Georgia on preseason college football odds boards a year ago. They’re still second on the board, but oddsmakers more than doubled their odds with the Tide opening at +500. It’s the longest opening odds for Alabama since they were +600 in 2016, after which they made it to the CFP title game before losing to Clemson.

This is a huge year for Nick Saban and the Tide. Maybe his most important ever in Tuscaloosa in terms of legacy and the national landscape. One national championship over the last five years doesn’t meet the standards and expectations in place. And the Bulldogs are now threatening the entire dynasty.

Alabama loses star quarterback Bryce Young to the NFL Draft, but five-star 2022 recruit Ty Simpson and four-star 2021 recruit Jalen Milroe are next in line and ready to battle in fall camp. The Tide were also just two plays away from a CFP appearance last season, losing to Tennessee on a walk-off field goal and to LSU in overtime. That shows how thin the margins are at the highest level. It also means the Tide should be hungrier and more motivated than ever in 2023, and that’s a scary thought for the rest of the SEC.

Ohio State

Ohio State is third on preseason betting boards after reaching the CFP for the third time in four seasons. The Buckeyes found themselves in the de-facto National Championship game while taking on Georgia in the 2022 CFP semifinals. They gave the Bulldogs everything they could handle and led 21-7 in the first half of what became a devastating 42-41 loss.

It’s been nine years since the Buckeyes’ last national championship, but they keep knocking on the door season after season. They also have something in common with Georgia and Alabama – a QB competition entering 2023. Fans were hopeful that CJ Stroud would stick around for another year, but he’s off to the Draft and it’s next man up in Columbus.

Ohio State does return most of an offense that averaged 44.2 points per game last season, including wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. The Buckeyes have tricky nonconference games against Western Kentucky and at Notre Dame. They get Penn State at home but travel to Ann Arbor for the season finale at Michigan, where the Buckeyes will look to avoid a third straight loss to the Wolverines. The schedule isn’t overly difficult, but defensive execution needs to improve if the Buckeyes want to get back to the title game.

Michigan

Rounding out the top four, the Wolverines are listed slightly behind Ohio State with +1000 odds on sports betting sites. Michigan has now gone to the CFP in back-to-back years, but it hasn’t capitalized – Georgia pushed the Big Ten champs around in 2021 before they were upset by TCU in the 2022 semis. Coach Jim Harbaugh tested the NFL waters again this offseason before reaching an agreement to return to Ann Arbor.

While Michigan couldn’t have ended the year on a worse note, they do have something that Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State don’t entering the summer – a starting quarterback. J.J. McCarthy is the guy, and he’s proved himself as a reliable option entering 2023. He also reunites with star running back Blake Corum, and the Wolverines appear to have the pieces to give the Buckeyes all they can handle again as they strive for a third straight conference championship.

Michigan should laugh its way through another soft nonconference offering of East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green before the Big Ten home opener against Rutgers. Potentially-tough road trips await at Minnesota and Penn State, but the Wolverines have experience and confidence as they prepare for another CFP run.

How Do The College Football Playoffs Work?

The College Football Playoffs system was first introduced for the 2014 season. It was a revolutionary progression from the antiquated Bowl Championship System that established the two national championship participants based on a complex algorithm and several polls.

The CFP is currently based entirely on rankings from a rotating 13-member committee of athletic directors, former players and other prominent figures. They are allowed to apply the eyeball test, among other factors, to produce weekly rankings beginning in early November.

At the end of the regular season, the top four teams in the CFP rankings advance to the playoffs. The No. 1 seed plays the No. 4 seed in one semifinal and the No. 2 seed plays the No. 3 seed in the other semifinal, and the two winners square off in the championship game.

This is the last year we’ll see the CFP in its current four-team bracket. The Board of Managers agreed to extend the playoff to a 12-team field starting in 2024, with the committee choosing its six highest-ranked conference champions and six at-large bids. The four highest-ranked conference champions receive a first-round bye.

Fans have been clamoring for expansion ever since the current format was announced more than a decade ago, and we’ll finally get to see it all unfold with a 12-team tournament in the coming years.

College Football Playoff Betting Tips

Timing is Everything: Futures odds for the CFP change every week of the season. A team like LSU could be +1000 to win the National Championship the week before playing at Alabama. If you think the Tigers can upset the Tide when making your college football picks, make sure to place LSU futures bets before the Alabama game as their title odds would go drastically shorter with a win.

Right on Schedule: The unbalanced nature of conference schedules is huge in futures betting. Even if a team like Clemson is expected to regress, they still have a great shot to make the CFP because the ACC is a relatively weak conference. This is evident each week in the college football betting lines, with Clemson usually favored by at least two touchdowns. When thinking about CFP futures bets, you must first consider the teams with the best shot to make the playoffs.

Human Nature: Rather than the numbers-based BCS format, the CFP is prone to human bias and patterns because the eyeball test is a factor. Pay very close attention to the rankings in early November when they’re first released. You can see what the committee values and how they weigh a blowout win over a bad opponent vs. a close road loss to a top-10 team, for example. Once you understand the rhyme and reason behind teams moving up or down in the rankings, you can start to predict the ranking implications in certain games and find value on teams outside the top four who have the best chance to move up.