MLB Expert Picks

For some, MLB betting is something to do between NFL and NBA seasons. For others, it’s the best season to make a profit – if you’re willing to put the work into the stats-driven game. Bookies.com has assembled a team to elite MLB handicappers to help you make the best decisions in time for the first pitch.

Bookies Tipster Adam Thompson
Adam Thompson
65-52 L117 +1,041; 9-2 +1,127 WS Picks/Props
Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com as its MLB analyst/handicapper in 2019. Previously senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com, he hit on 61% of his 2018 MLB picks, producing $4,062 for $100 players.
TOP PICK
Moneyline
Dodgers over Rays
Charlie Morton has been a postseason superstar for the Rays. But he’s coming off arguably the worst regular season in the last decade, and he’s facing the best lineup in the game. Walker Buehler may not go much longer than 5-6 innings, but he should be effective in his time on the hill, and the Dodgers, like the Rays in Game 2, have a row of elite relievers ready to finish the job.

What Makes Bookies Trustworthy for MLB Expert Picks?

There are many ways to bet MLB every day through the regular season and MLB postseason, from moneyline, run line and Over/Under totals to futures, props and live betting. Whatever the bet, Bookies.com has you covered with lines for all kinds of wagers ranging from the next World Series winner to MLB picks today for the prime-time games, all from the best expert handicappers out there – and all for free.

Bookies.com has formed a team of experienced and successful MLB handicappers to offer their best MLB betting tips all season. Bookies.com experts have decades of experience breaking down MLB odds and finding the edge over the sportsbooks. They’ve been there and done that and share their advice with you.

Will the Best Odds Always Be Shown for Each MLB Pick?

There are many sportsbooks out there, but the odds for MLB games can differ between them, sometimes dramatically.

That’s why Bookies.com shows the game lines from several sportsbooks, all live and all in the same place. Every MLB game is covered with moneyline, Over/Under and run line odds to give each bettor a chance to compare.

The best odds are pulled exclusively from trusted, U.S.-regulated sports betting sites vetted by Bookies.com. They’re updated constantly so you can immediately find and lock in the best odds for your MLB picks today.

There is no rule against having accounts at multiple sportsbooks – in fact, the smartest players do. That way, you able to compare all of them and take the best MLB odds for the teams you want.

Should I Do My Own Research for MLB Picks Today?

Our experts have years of experience crushing sportsbooks with their free MLB predictions. But it’s always best for a bettor to do their own research so they can feel confident in making their picks. It’s important to stay on top of the news, follow key stakeholders on Twitter and social media and keep tabs on live odds, injury news and more.

Bookies.com is your go-to source for many of the tools needed to create successful tickets. That includes showing team trends on the moneyline, on the Over/Under for total runs and on the run line (links?), as well as the MLB consensus, which shows which side other bettors are placing their money.

Bookies.com handicappers add to the experience with expert insight and a focus that’s made them winners in the field.

What to Consider When Deciding on MLB Picks

There are no sure things in MLB betting. It doesn’t matter what the matchup is, every team can win on any given night, and any team can lose.

But that also presents a unique opportunity. You can win fewer than 50% of your picks and still make a nice profit. In fact, betting on only favorites through an MLB season is likely to lead to a negative bankroll. You’ll win less often backing underdogs, but you could have a better chance of finishing in the black if you do.

A few more MLB betting tips to consider:

Favorites Don’t Win Enough, But Underdogs Do: Teams posted at -150 or higher on the money line have won 63% of games in the last decade. But because the odds are so high, all those victories combined still result in a negative finish.

If you wager on Justin Verlander and the host Houston Astros at -300 to beat the visiting Kansas City Royals, you’re likely to win the bet. But if you don’t, you need to win three more times to break even. It’s not a winning strategy in the long run.

Underdog with odds between +120 and +170, meanwhile, have emerged victorious in 46% of games since 2010. That’s more than enough to earn a nice profit. Backing the right underdogs builds bankroll in the long term. Use our odds calculator to calculate what an underdog might pay when making your baseball picks to help better manage your bankroll.

Outside Influences: Weather affects baseball more than any other outdoor sport. The ball travels less in cold, and wind direction can make the difference in turning a pitcher’s duel into a launchpad.

While umpires try to be as down-the-middle as possible, some have tighter strike zones that force pitchers to aim down the middle. That can lead to more runs. Umps with looser zones improve the pitchers’ chances of success. Ump stats can show one side of the Over/Under is a strong play.

Stadiums are all different, another unique baseball attribute. Some favor hitters or pitchers, some favor lefties or righties. A team full of left-handed power hitters might prefer the shorter wall at Fenway Park, while both sides typically suffer a power outage at AT&T Park in San Francisco.

Study the matchups in MLB games: Starting pitchers are critical to success, and to a successful bet. Each starting pitcher has their own trends, and each batting lineup has tendencies that relate to the starter. Chris Sale is an elite left-handed pitcher – opponents are hitting just .218 against him in his career. The Angels despite Mike Trout are only hitting .143 vs. Sale in 10 career games. But the crosstown Dodgers are hitting .348 off him in three games.

Fade Your Peers: The Bookies.com consensus page reveals the percentage of bets each side of a game is bringing in. Research proves going with the popular vote doesn’t work when making baseball picks.

Over the last 12 seasons, teams receiving fewer than 40% of the bets on the moneyline are winning only 44% of the time. Considering the odds, that’s proven to be enough money to be in the black. Every better prefers a robust wallet over a robust win percentage.

Follow the Pros: Professional bettors, or sharps, spend their day breaking down the lines and the matchups. They know what they’re doing in MLB, which can be heavily researched through statistics. Reverse Line Movement – when the percentage of bets and the percentage of money on a team go in opposite directions – can alert which way the big-money pros are going.

I’ve Made My MLB Pick, Now What?

Congrats! You’ve done your diligence, taken the advice of Bookies.com’s elite team of MLB handicappers, found the best odds at a secure and trustworthy online sportsbook and placed your bet. You can now watch the game with a new sense of excitement that wouldn’t exist without a few bucks on the line.

Bookmark Bookies.com’s free MLB picks and odds pages and return regularly to find the best odds on games, stories on news and futures bets worth backing, plus free picks from the Bookies.com MLB handicappers.

You don’t have to be done if you don’t want to be. MLB and live betting are natural partners, with built-in pauses of a baseball game perfect for bets involving the next at-bat, inning or pitch. Bookies.com has studied and ranked every online sportsbook legal to play in the U.S. and can point you in the right direction.