Expert UFC Picks & Predictions

Great UFC Picks and News

Why Our UFC Picks Can Be Considered Real Expert Picks

Few sports are tougher for newcomers to handicap than UFC betting. Our experts have done the legwork, studying an ever-changing roster where young fighters with little tape and huge moneyline gaps are the norm rather than the exception. Knowing where the real value lies, not just picking the bigger name, is what separates a sharp UFC pick from a guess.

Why Odds Comparison Matters in UFC Betting

Understanding value and finding an edge with the best betting odds is even more important in UFC. There are no point spreads, and moneylines will vary from sportsbook to sportsbook, sometimes significantly. Total rounds also differ from shop to shop – one sportsbook could set the over/under at 1.5 rounds while another has it at over/under 2.5 rounds.

One book might set a heavyweight favorite at -315, while another has the same fighter at -280. That means bettors can risk $280 to win $100 rather than $315 for the same bet. These variances make a big difference over time, and our UFC odds will always include the best value no matter which side bettors want to wager.

Should I Do My Own Research When Making UFC Picks?

Research is critical when making UFC picks, and it is important for bettors to do their own research so they feel as comfortable with their bets as possible. Many fights include newcomers or rookies from dozens of regional promotions across the world, and reliable stats aren’t easy to find, especially if a fighter is making their UFC debut.

While there are countless reliable MMA journalists, few of them cover the sport through a betting lens. Our UFC picks are thoroughly researched with a deep understanding of betting and bankroll management in a unique sport. Combining your own research with our expert UFC predictions is a great way to gain an edge and find value each week in the octagon.

What Does Weigh-In Day Tell You About a Fight?

Weigh-ins are worth watching closely before you lock in a UFC pick. Most fighters cut weight hard in the final days before a fight, and how they look stepping on the scale can reveal more than just their record.

A fighter who looks drained, flat or visibly struggled to make weight may have had a tough camp. That can easily carry over into the cage the following night. On the other hand, a fighter who looks sharp, full and confident at the weigh-in is often a good sign their preparation went smoothly. It's not a guarantee either way, but it's one more piece of information for you to use when making any sports picks.

Should You Trust a Fighter's Record After a Weight Class Change?

You can, but it's best to be careful backing a fighter purely on their résumé if they've recently moved up or down a weight class. A fighter who dominated at lightweight won't necessarily carry that same speed or power advantage at welterweight, and the reverse is true for a bigger fighter dropping down to make a lighter limit.

Sportsbooks don't always adjust quickly, since there's often limited data on how a fighter performs in their new division. That gap between the odds and the fighter's form in a new weight class is where value can hide, for better or worse. So dig into recent weigh-in history and fight footage at the new weight before trusting the old record. This can help you make good use of any sportsbook promos you may have.

What to Consider When Making UFC Picks

UFC betting is all about picking your spots. With 10-12 fights on most cards, laying a big moneyline bet on every bout isn’t realistic or smart. If you like two or three heavy favorites, consider parlaying those fights for a solid payout instead of risking big money on multiple -300 or -400 moneylines. A prop bet such as method of victory can be a great way to mix it up – if a well-rounded fighter such as Justin Gaethje is fighting someone with weak wrestling defense, you could bet Gaethje to win by submission with far better odds than the moneyline.

And when making UFC predictions, the right underdog pick can be immensely profitable. A younger, inexperienced underdog with big knockout power could be a smart pick over a veteran with better overall skills. All it takes is one punch to cash on +250 and +300 moneylines.

One should also consider quality of past opponents in UFC picks. Someone might have a great record against weak fighters on the regional circuits, but experienced UFC fighters can quickly expose any flaws and weaknesses even if the record doesn’t look as impressive.

How Much Should You Stake on a UFC Pick?

Picking the right fights matters, but sizing your bets matters just as much. A common approach is staking a fixed percentage of your overall bankroll on every pick, typically 1-3%. That prevents betting a random amount based on how confident a fight feels.

Some bettors go a step further with a fractional Kelly approach, adjusting their stake based on how much of an edge they believe they have against the odds on offer. A pick you're highly confident in gets a larger stake than one you like but see as more of a coin flip. Either method keeps a single bad night from doing serious damage to your bankroll over a full fight card.

What Are The Most Common Types of UFC Picks?

Moneyline is the most common type of UFC pick. It’s simply a bet on who will win the fight. If a fighter is a -280 favorite, a bettor risks $280 to win $100. If another fighter is a +180 underdog, a bettor risks $100 to win $180.

Total rounds is another popular UFC bet. You can wager whether the fight will last over/under 1.5 rounds or 2.5 rounds. Most sportsbooks also accept bets on whether the fight will go to a decision or end in a stoppage.

Method of victory is also offered for both fighters. Instead of predicting a win or a loss, you can choose from three different outcomes – win by knockout/TKO, win by submission and win by decision, all three of which will carry different odds based on the fighter.

Futures UFC picks are also available with odds offered for fights months in advance, or even hypothetical fights which have not been officially booked. This is a great way to spot early value and pounce before the betting odds move as more money comes in.

Does Weight Class Affect UFC Picks?

Weight class matters more in UFC betting than most newcomers realize. Heavyweight bouts end early roughly 65% of the time, with decisions accounting for fewer outcomes and the lowest rate of any division. Bigger fighters carry more power and absorb less punishment before a finish, so method of victory and round total markets behave differently at heavyweight than they do in lighter divisions.

Lighter weight classes tell a different story. Fighters there tend to have better cardio and recovery between exchanges, which pushes more fights to the judges' scorecards. If you're backing the under on round totals or a knockout in the method of victory market at top betting apps, checking both fighters' weight class is just as important as checking their records.

Where Can I Find Expert UFC Predictions?

Our UFC experts cover the sport year-round, with research and analysis published for every Pay-Per-View and Fight Night card. Their research and analysis is available at Bookies.com for every Pay Per View UFC event, as well as other events such as UFC Fight Night. Bookies.com will also provide the best lines available for each fight and includes numerous resources such as lengthier betting guides and overall UFC betting strategies. And our parlay calculator and odds calculator can instantly convert different odds types and provide your potential risk/payout numbers before you lock in your UFC predictions.

I’ve Made My UFC Pick, Now What?

Once you’ve done the research and settled on your UFC picks, locking your bet in is the easy part. Simply find the best odds at Bookies.com and click on the odds link to reach the sportsbook. First-time users will need to create an account and provide some basic personal information, which is why we only recommend exclusively with safe, legal and regulated sportsbooks. Once the card starts, simply settle in and get ready for a thrilling betting experience once the cage doors lock and your UFC predictions play out inside the octagon.