Free NFL Expert Picks

Dig into every betting line from this week in the NFL – from point spreads to over/unders to moneylines – with our expert picks.

Bookies Tipster Adam Thompson
Adam Thompson
16-3-1 L20 Best Bets (84.2%), 28-13-1 L42 ATS (68.3%), 36-20 L56 O/U (64.3%)
Adam Thompson is Bookies.com NFL analyst/handicapper. Previously senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com, he has consistently produced profitable seasons in NFL and MLB.
TOP PICK
Spread
Cowboys over Lions
The Lions have mostly gotten by on the brilliance of QB Matthew Stafford -- he was out last week and they managed 13 points. Regardless of whether or not Stafford plays, it shouldn't matter here. Detroit's defense ranks 26th or worse against the run and the pass, and it faces a Dallas offense that ranks No. 1 in yards gained. The Lions will struggle to keep up at home.
TOP PICK
Spread
Raiders over Bengals
The Raiders have been a moneymaker for those backing them, covering in five of their last six. They’re also 7-1 ATS in their last eight at home, including 3-1 this year. They edged the Chargers last Thursday and have a playoff berth to play for, have additional rest and the homefield. The only thing the Bengals are playing for is the No. 1 overall pick. They’re winless, with a rookie QB and rookie coach, they haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game in more than a month and have a defense that ranks No. 32 in yards allowed. Grab Oakland at -10 before it climbs.
Over/Under
Saints-Buccaneers Over
The Saints had a big offensive letdown Sunday in a surprising loss to the Falcons, but expect a nice bounceback against a Buccaneers defense that ranks dead-last against the pass. The Over has hit in Tampa Bay’s last seven games, and all of them have finished with at least 50 points. The Saints will likely be without top cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring). If you like scoring, this should be a fun one to watch.
Spread
Panthers over Falcons
The Falcons shocked the NFL world by dominating the Saints as a two-TD underdog last Sunday. That snapped a six-game losing streak and was the first game Atlanta hadn’t allowed at least 24 points. In fact, it had given up 38.5 ppg the previous four games. The Panthers have scored at least 30 points in four of their last seven games and last week hung with the Packers at Lambeau. Look for trends to straighten out and for Carolina to cruise at home, where it scored 34 and 30 points its last two games against defenses much stronger than Atlanta’s.
Spread
Jets over Redskins
The last six games, the Redskins have scored in double figures once, and that was against the Dolphins. Dwayne Haskins has been named starter for the rest of the season, but they’ll likely rely on the run to take the pressure off. The Jets rank No. 2 in the NFL against the run. They were torn up by Daniel Jones last week, but Haskins has a 42.2 QB rating over three games with no TDs. On the flip side, the Jets should use this game to truly get Le’Veon Bell more included in the offense. Few teams have been gashed more by backs than the Redskins, who rank 28th vs. the run and 25th in receptions to RBs.
National and Philadelphia radio host & TV sports gambling analyst Eytan Shander has handicapped NFL football for years.
TOP PICK
Spread
Patriots over Eagles
The Patriots are coming off a bye week and before that their first loss of the season. The line is awfully short for a defense that was putting up historic numbers. The biggest issue for the Eagles is stopping a pass rush that has been vicious at times, combined with one of the NFL’s best secondaries. The Eagles have won two straight but are still just 4-5 ATS, two full games behind NE at 6-3. The Eagles are a slow starting team, and the Patriots have been dominant on defense throughout first halfs all year.
Spread
Cowboys over Lions
The Cowboys are in a really difficult spot heading into this weekend, one where the division begins to slip away with another loss. Things get much more difficult for the Cowboys down the stretch, but that isn’t the case on Sunday. Dallas has an easy opponent in Detroit, while the Eagles take on the Patriots. Detroit is hoping to get Matthew Stafford back, but even with him, this has Cowboys W written all over it. We saw Oakland run all over Detroit, mainly because the Lions defense can’t stop anyone on the ground. The Cowboys have one of the best RBs the NFL has seen in years. Bad combo.
Over/Under
Texans-Ravens Over
Both teams in Baltimore should provide plenty of excitement on offense. The talent at QB alone lends to a lot of throwing the ball. Despite Lamar Jackson being Baltimore’s best RB and Chris Hyde playing well behind Deshaun Watson, neither team is looking to take the ball out of either QB’s hands. The Ravens have gone over 30ppg for three straight games and haven’t scored less than 20 points all season.
Geoff Mosher is an award-winning sports reporter and radio and TV personality with 25 seasons reporting on sports and more than 15 covering the Philadelphia Eagles and the NFL.
TOP PICK
Over/Under
Jets-Redskins Under
The Jets haven’t scored more than 18 points in any road game this year, including against the Dolphins and Browns. In three of their four road games, they’ve managed fewer than 215 total yards. They also just lost another offensive lineman with an injury. Sam Darnold is 0-2 on the road this year and the Jets have averaged 16.5 points per game in those two games. Meanwhile, Washington has promoted first-round pick Dwayne Haskins to starter. Haskins has thrown just 44 passes but has no touchdowns, four interceptions and a 42.2 passer rating. The Jets defense is fairly decent. Greg Williams will send the house at Haskins. It could get ugly.
Spread
Panthers over Falcons
The Panthers have an emerging offense with Kyle Allen improving every start. They’ve rolled up 370 yards and 401 yards, respectively, over the past two weeks in games against the Titans and Packers. They’ve ran for more than 120 yards in six of nine games behind MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey. The Falcons have the NFL’s fifth-worst defense and have the league’s fewest takeaways. They’re coming off an incredible 17-point road win over the Saints, but lightning won’t be strike twice.
Spread
Raiders over Bengals
The Raiders are contending for the postseason while the winless Bengals are playing for the No. 1 overall pick. The Bengals have lost each of their last three games by double digits and have wisely turned to backup quarterback Ryan Lindley to give them the best possible chance to lose out. Andy Dalton was bad, but six of his eight losses had come by a touchdown or fewer. Behind Lindley, the Bengals were destroyed by 27 points at home against the Ravens. Cincy’s NFL-worst run defense bodes poorly for stopping the Raiders, who lean heavily on rookie running back Josh Jacobs, who should go over 1,000 total yards for the season in this game.

NFL Parlays

Parlays can be fun part of your betting strategy, when done in moderation. Check out our top plays.
Top NFL Week 11 Parlays: ‘Light the Lamp’ and 'Just Win’
Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
16-3-1 L20 Best Bets (84.2%), 28-13-1 L42 ATS (68.3%), 36-20 L56 O/U (64.3%)
More About Adam Thompson

Top NFL Week 11 Parlays: ‘Light the Lamp’ and 'Just Win’

Week 11 NFL Schedule & Adam Thompson's Picks

Want to see what our NFL expert thinks of every game and each market? Our picks below reveal the best bets for every game in the NFL this week.
Game
Spreads Pick
Moneyline Pick
Over/ Under Pick

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What to Consider When Making an NFL Pick

When considering the best NFL picks to make, several factors should be considered. How do the teams match up? If you’ve got two great defenses – or two lousy offenses manned by rookie quarterback – you’re going to be giving a long look at the under. Is one team rested off of a bye week? Are there any lingering injuries to consider? Has one team dominated the series? Is it a rivalry game between two division foes and have their games been close? Our experts weigh all these factors and look at all the data, and so should you.

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