Free NFL Expert Picks

Dig into every betting line from this week in the NFL – from point spreads to over/unders to moneylines – with our expert picks.

Bookies Tipster Adam Thompson
Adam Thompson
41-21 L62 Best Bets (66.1%), 87-65 L152 ATS (57.2%), 103-69 L172 O/U (59.9%)
Adam Thompson is Bookies.com NFL analyst/handicapper. Previously senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com, he has consistently produced profitable seasons in NFL and MLB.
TOP PICK
Over/Under
Titans-Chiefs Over
The Chiefs rank 26th against the run. The Titans rank 26th against the pass. Patrick Mahomes passed for 446 yards and three TDs when these teams faced off in Week 10. Derrick Henry ran for 188 yards and two TDs and Ryan Tannehill threw for two more. The Chiefs and Titans combined for 67 points in that game and with both offenses humming, hitting 60 is certainly not out of the question. I locked it in at 52.
TOP PICK
Spread
Titans over Chiefs
When these teams faced off in Week 10, Patrick Mahomes went off for 446 yards passing, three TDs and no TDs. And the Titans still won. The Titans were just getting going with their Derrick Henry-Ryan Tannehill winning combo. Now the formula has been perfected. The Chiefs are going to score as well, but this has the feeling of a “last team with the ball wins” classic. The road team has covered in the Titans’ last seven games, and I’m locking in Tennessee at +7.5 here.
Over/Under
49ers-Packers Under
The Packers managed just eight points and Aaron Rodgers barely got to 100 passing yards in a humbling Week 12 loss against a depleted Niners defense. Now San Francisco is healthy and it’s going to be tough for a Green Bay offense that’s managed a mediocre 21 ppg the past nine weeks. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s defense ranks 18th in yards allowed, but only ninth in points allowed. The Packers bend but don’t break often and will have adjustments after the Week 12 throttling. I got this at 45.
Spread
49ers over Packers
The Packers have been an underdog by 7.5 points or more three times in Aaron Rodgers’ 191 career starts. They’ve lost those three but covered in all of them. Kyle Shanahan hasn’t been one to pour it on (6-12 ATS as a favorite), including 0-3-1 ATS this season at more than -7. All that said … San Francisco is just a well-oiled machine, one that crushed the Packers in Week 12 and is now finally healthy on defense. The matchups favor the Niners just about everywhere except quarterback and SF can focus on Davante Adams with Richard Sherman plus help. That’s enough to lay the 7.5.
National and Philadelphia radio host & TV sports gambling analyst Eytan Shander has handicapped NFL football for years.
TOP PICK
Spread
Packers over 49ers
The 49ers come off an absolute dismantling of the Vikings. San Francisco won with the ground game and by putting a ton of pressure on Kirk Cousins. That strategy will play out again this week as both the Niners and Green Bay heavily rely on multiple running backs. Aaron Rodgers will have Davante Adams, a weapon unlike anything Niners quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has on his side. The Green Bay wideout is good enough to singlehandedly cover this line. The Packers won six games this season away from Lambeau Field, so not much reason to think there’s a true home field advantage here. Take the hook with the Packers as they will probably win outright.
Spread
Titans over Chiefs
The best story in the NFL is the coaching job Mike Vrabel is doing in Nashville. The Titans knocked off the top-seeded Ravens last week and present a difficult matchup in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday in Kansas City. Derrick Henry is one of the biggest impact players in the NFL this season and can break a big play at any moment. Ryan Tannehill didn’t have to throw a ton last week, but he is more than capable. The Chiefs defense will throw a lot of different looks at the Titans but bottom line is they can’t let Henry beat them. Expect the Titans to throw a bunch, keeping up with the Chiefs in a shootout. The Chiefs should win but this spread is too high. Tennessee’s defense is good enough to keep up with K.C.’s run game, leaving it all up to Patrick Mahomes. Chiefs win by 4.
Over/Under
Titans-Chiefs Over
We saw more evidence last week against Houston that Kansas City coach Andy Reid will throw the ball under nearly any circumstance. It nearly cost the Chiefs three points at the end of the first half. Expect Reid to ask Patrick Mahomes to keep throwing. This team could be up by 20 in the third quarter and will pound the ball deep to Travis Kelce. The Titans have hit at least 20 points in each of their last six games, including the two playoff games. All you really need is 21 points from a Titans team that can break a play open at any time with Derrick Henry or A.J. Brown. This hits as high as 55 on Sunday, I’ll gladly take the over standing at 53.
Geoff Mosher is an award-winning sports reporter and radio and TV personality with 25 seasons reporting on sports and more than 15 covering the Philadelphia Eagles and the NFL.
TOP PICK
Spread
Titans over Chiefs
The Titans don’t have enough firepower to outright win this game at Arrowhead Stadium but they have the ideal ball-control offense and improving defense to keep the score close. Tennessee beat the Chiefs in Nashville this season, 35-32, thanks to 188 rushing yards and two TDs by Derrick Henry, who has been on a tear in the second half of the season and the playoffs. Kansas City’s defense has tightened since, but the Titans can run against any defense. They’ve shown that for the past eight weeks, as Henry has piled up 1,273 rushing yards, an average of 159 yards per game. The issue with Tennessee outright winning is the keep-away game the coaches are playing with Ryan Tannehill, who hasn’t attempted more than 20 passes in his last three games. The last time he attempted more than 20 passes, the Titans lost, 38-28 to the Saints. The Titans are 5-3 when Tannehill attempts more than 20 passes and 4-0 when he’s under 20. It’s hard to see the Titans keeping pace with Kansas City that way. But covering looks very good for Tennessee.
Moneyline
Chiefs over Titans
There isn’t great value in taking the Chiefs moneyline but of the two favorites this weekend, Kansas City is easily the likeliest to advance. The Chiefs were in the AFC title game last year – and lost in overtime when they never had the chance to take possession – and they have the game’s best quarterback and most prolific set of weapons. They erased a 24-point home deficit against the Titans in the Divisional Round and won by double digits. Their defense has vastly improved, allowing just 52 points in five December games. On the flip side, the Titans are more one-dimensional. They have been relying solely on Henry’s brilliance and adequate play from quarterback Ryan Tannehill. A running game and defense travel well but they aren’t necessarily the key ingredients for winning a championship. The Titans can make this a game, but the Chiefs are just too talented to lose.
Spread
Packers over 49ers
Both teams rank in the top-seven of time of possession, so expect a ball-control style of attack from San Francisco and Green Bay. San Francisco’s front four can be overwhelming, but Aaron Rodgers is more equipped to escape pressure and make something from nothing than Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins was last weekend. The Packers should move the ball enough with Aaron Jones and Davante Adams to keep the Niners from pulling away. The big key will be Green Bay’s ability to stop the Niners’ running game. The Packers had the league’s 10th-worst rushing defense and tied for seventh-worst in yards allowed per rushing attempt. They’ll struggle to keep Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman from moving the chains. But Green Bay has the cornerbacks to challenge Jimmy Garoppolo, who was shaky against the Vikings in the Divisional Round. Emphasis on the ground game will keep this game close and low-scoring.

NFL Parlays

Parlays can be fun part of your betting strategy, when done in moderation. Check out our top plays.
Top NFL Conference Championship Round Parlay: ‘Trends Align’
Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
41-21 L62 Best Bets (66.1%), 87-65 L152 ATS (57.2%), 103-69 L172 O/U (59.9%)
More About Adam Thompson

Top NFL Conference Championship Round Parlay: ‘Trends Align’

NFL Conference Championship Schedule & Adam Thompson's Picks

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