NCAAF Expert Picks

Dig into our top plays this week in college football – from point spreads to over/unders to moneylines – with our expert picks.

Bookies Tipster Dan Kilbridge
Dan Kilbridge
13-8 (62%) in 2020; 65-44-1 (59.6%) last 110 games ATS
Veteran journalist Dan Kilbridge is Bookies.com’s primary NCAA football and basketball analyst/handicapper. He has covered sports betting, including the NFL and the NBA, and college sports for more than a decade.
TOP PICK
Spread
Florida over Mississippi
Florida quarterback Kyle Trask was way better than expected when forced into a starting role last year. The senior enters the season with tons of confidence, experience and some Heisman longshot chatter. He’s also got one of the best tight ends in the nation in Kyle Pitts, who chose not to enter the 2020 NFL draft. We’re weary of teams with first-year coaches that haven’t had normal prep time this summer and expect a lot of Bulldogs miscues early. Gators roll and cover -14.5.
Over/Under
Kentucky-Auburn Over
We’re not totally sold on Auburn sophomore QB Bo Nix yet, but he put a lot of points on the board as a true freshman. The Tigers defense also lost some big pieces, including DT Derrick Brown. Kentucky also gets senior Terry Wilson back at quarterback after he missed most of last season with an injury. Expect plenty of offense and a cover for the over at 49.5.
Spread
Syracuse over Georgia Tech
Syracuse’s early offensive output is concerning. It has averaged under 200 yards of total offense in two games. But it has also faced excellent defenses in North Carolina and the Pitt Panthers, whom the Orange played closer than expected while covering last week. Georgia Tech was missing several starters last week, with no reason given and no word on a potential return. We don’t like it. We’ll roll with Syracuse +8 at home.
Spread
Miami (Fla.) over Florida State
Is D’Eriq King that guy? The one you can count on to cover every week? We’re not expecting him to be Joe Burrow, but he looks great under center for the Hurricanes and has them 2-0 against the spread after last week’s win at Louisville. We don’t want to miss the boat on King and get on the bandwagon too late. King takes it to the Seminoles and Miami covers -11.
David Caraviello has covered college football and basketball betting extensively for Bookies.com and has reported from the NCAA Final Four, Paradise Jam and every SEC football stadium during his career.
TOP PICK
Spread
Oklahoma over Kansas State
Death, taxes, and Oklahoma. While many teams are struggling to adjust to playing amid this new reality, the Sooners looked like their old selves in hammering Missouri State in their opener. Now Oklahoma hosts Kansas State, which gagged one up against Arkansas State in its opener two weeks ago. A television reporter from Oklahoma City also indicated that the Wildcats are battling COVID issues that could deplete some position groups. While big-line covers have been an iffy prospect so far this season (just ask Oklahoma State), that Sooners offense remains among the most consistent units in college football.
TOP PICK
Spread
Mississippi State over LSU
The reigning national champions lost 14 players to the draft, while their defensive coordinator departed for a head coaching gig and a few other stars decided to opt out. And with Myles Brennan stepping in for Joe Burrow at quarterback, the Tigers could look very different from 2019. Meanwhile, Mike Leach arrived in Starkville and lured former All-Pac-12 quarterback K.J. Costello from Stanford; he will helm the Mississippi State edition of the Air Raid. Both teams will be adapting on the fly, at a stadium that won’t be its usual intimidating self.
Over/Under
Central Florida-East Carolina Under
Another one of those programs that seems to be constantly battling coronavirus issues, East Carolina had its planned opener against Marshall first moved and then postponed, all after the Pirates had to pause preseason camp due to a COVID-19 outbreak. UCF, which also had its planned opener against FIU canceled, throttled Georgia Tech last weekend. Both teams are capable of putting up points, but this total is too high, particularly given that the Pirates have dealt with repeated interruptions and will be taking the field for real for the first time.
Spread
Tennessee over South Carolina
The Gamecocks have undergone a sea change on offense as new coordinator Mike Bobo takes over play-calling duties, and new starting quarterback Colin Hill followed his old coach from Colorado State. Add the loss of South Carolina’s No. 1 running back to injury, and there will be lots of kinks to work out for a team that misfired often during its 4-8 campaign of 2019. Tennessee’s offensive line and receiver groups have been depleted by quarantine, but the Vols are a more experienced squad who clobbered the Gamecocks 41-21 last year in Knoxville.
Over/Under
Kansas-Baylor Under
The Bears try yet again to open their football season, after games against Louisiana Tech and Houston were both canceled due to coronavirus issues. While Baylor boasts veteran starting quarterback Charlie Brewer, there will be adjustments on game day — new coach Dave Aranda brought in Larry Fedora as offensive coordinator, and some position groups are still dealing with players in quarantine. We last saw Kansas losing handily to Coastal Carolina, so it’s tough to envision a shootout between one bad team and another that’s yet to get on the field.

Top-25 Schedule & Dan Kilbridge's Picks

Want to see what our NCAAF expert thinks of every Top-25 game and each market? Check out his picks below against the spread, on the moneyline and over/under.
GAME
Spreads Pick
Moneyline Pick
Over/ Under Pick
Mississippi State Bulldogs
MSST
@LSU Tigers
LSU
West Virginia Mountaineers
WVU
@Oklahoma State Cowboys
OKST
Georgia Bulldogs
UGA
@Arkansas Razorbacks
ARK
Kansas State Wildcats
KSU
@Oklahoma Sooners
OKLA
Florida Gators
FLA
@Miss Ole Rebels
MISS
Kentucky Wildcats
UK
@Auburn Tigers
AUB
UCF Knights
UCF
@East Carolina Pirates
ECU
Georgia Southern Eagles
GASO
@Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
ULL
Louisville Cardinals
LOU
@Pittsburgh Panthers
PITT
Alabama Crimson Tide
BAMA
@Missouri Tigers
MIZ
Vanderbilt Commodores
VAN
@Texas A&M Aggies
TAMU
Florida State Seminoles
FSU
@Miami Hurricanes FL
MIA
Tennessee Volunteers
TENN
@South Carolina Gamecocks
SCAR
North Carolina State Wolfpack
NCST
@Virginia Tech Hokies
VT
Troy Trojans
TROY
@BYU Cougars
BYU

Why our NCAAF Picks Can Be Considered Real Expert Picks

Our college football betting experts have decades of experience covering the game at the highest level and in some of the country’s most iconic stadiums. From the ACC to the SEC to the Big Ten, our experts have studied the trends and the teams inside and out. You can trust that they have taken a deep dive into each game they are picking to try to give you the best advice and tips they can.

What to Look For When Making NCAAF Picks and Parlays

Our experts’ advice should just be part of your research. Follow the latest betting news, keep tabs on the Twitter feeds of reporters who cover the teams week-in and week-out for the latest injury news or roster changes, study the stats and trends. Use all the information, and your own instincts, in making your college football picks. Parlays are also a ton of fun in college football, as you can piece together several large favorites’ moneyline odds to boost what would otherwise be a smaller return. Use our free parlay calculator to determine your winnings from our recommendations above.

And when it comes to college football Saturday, keep Bookies.com’s Live College Football Betting Blog as your second screen for in-game trends, injuries, the latest odds and more.

What Are NCAAF Picks Against The Spread

The team you like is favored to win big, and you like that bet but don’t want to risk $900 to win $100. That’s where our expert college football picks against the spread come in to play. Betting against the spread in college football means not only are you betting on a team to win, you need them to win by a certain amount in order to cash your ticket. Say Alabama has a moneyline of -900 against Texas A&M. That equates to point spread of about 16 points, meaning Alabama would need to win by 17 or more for you to win. You only risk $110 to win $100, which might make you more comfortable.

You can also do the reverse. Maybe you like Texas A&M in that game. A $100 bet would win you $510 on the moneyline. Not a bad return. But if you’d rather be a bit more cautious, you can take Texas A&M and the points, giving you a much better chance at cashing a ticket, even if it is for a smaller payout. Check out free odds calculator to determine which bet makes the most sense for you.

I’ve Made My College Football Pick, Now What?

Once you have made your decision, it’s important to shop around for the best odds, which is why comparing the top sportsbooks at Bookies.com and their real-time odds should be part of your betting routine. Then click on the odds you like and you will be taken to the sportsbook to go make your bet. If you are a first-time bettor at that site, make sure to use the promo code to get the best bonus offer. If you already have an account, just sign in and make your bet.