Dan Kilbridge

McIlroy has three top-10s in his last five major starts, often playing catch-up after a bad opening round. Now it’s time for the Northern Irishman to get back on track with his first major win since 2014. The stats have been trending up over the past month and were actually better in many areas at the Memorial than they were for the win at Quail Hollow. He has a good track record at Torrey Pines with a T-5, T-3 and T-16 in three career starts. He also shot under-par in 10 of those 12 rounds. First it was Jordan Spieth, then Phil Mickelson. The year of the comeback continues. We’re on McIlroy to win his first major in seven years.

Suh is our deep sleeper of the week. The former two-time All-American at USC has earned a handful of PGA Tour starts this season with decent results, making six of eight cuts including a T-8 at the Shriners. The California native also finished T-37 at Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year. He’s played the course a ton and has been eyeing this U.S. Open for years, earning his spot in the final stage of qualifying last week. We think he’s worth a shot at a top-10 finish with those odds.

Homa’s odds would look different if he had any past major success to build on. He has missed the cut in six of his seven major appearances and it’s understandable to see him further down the board as a result. But this course should be a perfect fit for his first taste of major success, and his game has been on point lately. Homa has five top-10s already this season, including a T-6 his last time out at the Memorial. And the Burbank, California native continues to thrive in his home state. He picked up his second career PGA Tour win earlier this season at the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles, and he’s been money in his last two starts at Torrey Pines. Homa finished T-9 in 2020 with a final-round 67, and he followed that up with a T-18 in 2021. He’s also a terrific putter on Poa annua grass. We’re on Homa for a top-10 finish.

Kokrak hits it far and straight off the tee, which is exactly what you want at a U.S. Open. He’s also been playing lights out with two wins this season, including his most recent start at the Charles Schwab. The 36-year-old has been waiting a long time for a season like this. He’s also been good at the U.S. Open, making the cut in all three appearances and finishing T-17 last year at Winged Foot. He should be brimming with confidence and hungry to get in the mix on the weekend. We’re on Kokrak for a top-10 finish.

This is a very even pitching matchup with Minnesota righty Bailey Ober taking on Seattle southpaw Justus Sheffield. We don’t expect either starter to last more than five or six innings at the most. Both lineups have also been producing offense at a pretty solid rate lately. The big edge here is that Seattle has a strong bullpen and Minnesota’s is one of the worst in the league. The underdog Mariners are the play at +120 odds.

San Francisco starter Anthony DeSclafani tossed a complete-game, two-hit shutout his last time out against the Nationals. We expect another strong showing tonight against Arizona. He’s held this Diamondbacks lineup to a .162 batting average throughout his career. Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has given up 12 earned runs over his last three assignments and has a 6.13 ERA on the road this season. We’re on Giants moneyline.

Aaron Civale is on a roll for the Tribe and gave up just one hit over eight scoreless innings in his last start against the Mariners. This Orioles lineup doesn’t pose much of a threat as Baltimore has lost six straight and carries the worst team-OPS in the league over the past week (.435). Indians moneyline is the play.

Gerrit Cole has been very solid overall this season, but he’s struggled in a few recent starts. The righty has given up five earned runs in two of his last five assignments and will be challenged again tonight. Toronto has the best team-OPS in the league over the past week (.927) and has already seen Cole twice this season. Toronto’s Ross Stripling has also settled in nicely, allowing no more than one earned run in three of his last four starts. We like the underdog Blue Jays tonight at +138.

Adesanya deserves major props for moving up to light heavyweight in his last bout, a decision loss to the much bigger Jan Blachowicz. This fight is way more his speed and while Vettori will try to control him on the ground, we didn’t like what we saw from the Italian his last time out against Kevin Holland. Vettori took some big hits on the feet and couldn’t put Holland away despite his total lack of takedown defense. Holland also took the fight on a week’s notice. Adesanya’s hands are too quick for Vettori to simply charge forward and secure takedowns. Adesanya also has complete control of his emotions in the cage and his precision in stand-up will be the difference in the main event. Adesanya moneyline is the play.

Dober’s three-fight KO/TKO streak came to an end his last time out against the matchup nightmare that is Islam Makhachev. We like him in this one against Ridell, who should be willing to stand and strike. Ridell doesn’t have a finish in the UFC yet and while he is very talented, Dober has more power in his hands and could get another KO. We’re on Dober moneyline.

Felipe survived a war with Justin Tafa his last time out, earning a split decision. He ate some serious shots and showed off an impressive chin that hasn’t failed him yet, with no KO/TKO losses on his resume. Collier bounced back from a terrible first-round TKO against Tom Aspinall to earn a decision win over Gian Villante, but his cardio and power remain big question marks at heavyweight. We’re on Felipe moneyline.

Those Rangers odds are just too tempting. Starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz gave up five earned runs in his last start at Coors Field, but he went seven innings with no more than two runs allowed in the two starts prior. Los Angeles is coming off a sweep of the Pirates that doesn’t mean much, and Clayton Kershaw has allowed five earned runs in each of his last two starts. We think there’s some value on Rangers moneyline +275.

Atlanta’s Charlie Morton has completely turned things around over the past few weeks. The veteran righty has won three straight and posted a 3.77 ERA in the month of May. He’s also gone at least five innings over his last four starts. Miami’s Sandy Alcantara tossed eight shutout innings his last time out against the lowly Pirates, but this is a far more dangerous lineup. The Marlins recently lost eight straight and continue to struggle against strong competition. Braves moneyline is the play.

Blue Jays starter Ross Stripling has been outstanding in his past three starts, going at least five innings while allowing no more than one earned run. Boston’s Garrett Richards has been more consistent overall this season, but he’s been getting touched up lately. He’s also been terrible at home with a 6.38 ERA at Fenway Park. Blue Jays moneyline is the play.

Wrigley Field is back to full capacity for the first time this afternoon, and the place should be up for grabs. The Cubs have been playing well and are coming off a huge series win over the Padres in San Diego. St. Louis starter Johan Oviedo typically doesn’t go past the fourth inning and the Cardinals bullpen is a liability. We’re on Cubs moneyline.

Kansas City is in a brutal offensive slump and riding a five-game losing streak. We’ve seen this before from the Royals as they lost 11 straight in early May. Royals lefty Mike Minor gave up five earned runs in his last start against the Twins, including three home runs. Oakland’s Frankie Montas has been sharp lately with a 3.18 ERA in May, and the Athletics have won six of their last seven. We’re on Athletics moneyline.

Blue Jays ace Hyun Jin Ryu should bounce back from his worst start of the season. He gave up six earned runs against a hot Astros lineup in his last start, but he didn’t allow more than two earned runs in four consecutive assignments prior to that one. White Sox lefty Dallas Keuchel has been far less consistent this season and should get touched up tonight. Blue Jays moneyline is the play.

We like the Astros to finish off the three-game sweep tonight in Boston. Zack Greinke is dialed in coming off a complete game in which he allowed one run on six hits against the Blue Jays. He also gave up one earned run over eight innings against the Padres the week prior. The Astros have the top team OPS in the league over the past week (1.005). Boston lefty Eduardo Rodriguez had a 7.28 ERA in May and continues to struggle. We’re on Astros moneyline.

Kansas City has lost four straight, with just five total runs scored in their last three games. Starting pitcher Brad Keller has really settled in after a brutal start to the season, but he’s up against it today. The Angels are on a tear having scored 33 runs over their last four games. They also have a chance to close out their first sweep of the season. Angels moneyline is the play.

The Cardinals have lost six straight and things are looking bleak in St. Louis these days. They aren’t hitting and they have one of the worst bullpens in the league. The Indians offense has really picked it up over the past week and Cleveland righty Jean Carlos Mejia hasn’t given up a run yet in eight innings pitched this season. He won’t go very deep, but the Indians have the far superior bullpen. We’re on Tribe moneyline.

Rays rookie Shane McClanahan has electric stuff and should keep the Nationals bats at bay in the early innings. Tampa Bay’s bullpen will take care of the rest. The Nationals have the second-lowest team OPS over the past week (.574) and starting pitcher Patrick Corbin has allowed four earned runs in each of his last three starts. Rays moneyline is the play.

Detroit’s Casey Mize posted a 1.74 ERA over five starts in the month of May. He’s gone at least six innings in six of those seven starts, including 7.2 innings when he allowed just three hits and one earned run against the Mariners in Seattle. Mariners starter Chris Flexen has posted some ugly lines lately and owns an 8.10 ERA on the road this year. We’re on Tigers moneyline.

We like the Yankees to bounce back tonight after getting swept at home by the Red Sox. They need to start this eight-game road trip off on a high note and the lowly Twins will have their full attention. Lefty Jordan Montgomery is dialed in having allowed four earned runs over his last three starts, and the Yankees bullpen is a huge strength. Minnesota’s Michael Pineda got shelled for five earned runs in three innings his last time out against the Orioles, and Twins relievers are a liability. Yankees moneyline is the play.

We think there’s some value on Colorado tonight. Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela has been very good for the past month and gave up one earned run over 7.1 innings in his last start. Miami’s Pablo Lopez has been almost unhittable at home and has a 2.82 ERA, but his 1-3 record shows how little run support he’s been getting. The Rockies have the third-best team OPS over the past week (.892). The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 with very little offensive production. We’re on Rockies moneyline +163.

Milwaukee’s Adrian Hauser is finding a groove and has allowed just one earned run over his last 10 innings. The Brewers have won 9 of their last 10 games and continue to play well away from home with a 16-11 record on the road. Cincinnati’s Sonny Gray was pretty sharp last month, but he’s only gone more than six innings in one of nine starts and the Reds bullpen is one of the worst in the league. Brewers moneyline is the play.

Braves southpaw Drew Smyly is really fighting it these days. He’s given up 13 earned runs over his last three starts and pitched just 4.1 innings in his last assignment. Opposing hitters have also taken him deep 14 times this season, including five times over his last three starts. Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola has been much more consistent and owns a 2.35 ERA at home. The Phillies also have the better bullpen. We’re on Phillies moneyline for this one.

Staropoli missed weight by three and a half pounds in his last fight at welterweight, a unanimous decision loss to Tim Means. He moves up to middleweight to face Roman Dolidze, who actually dropped down from light heavyweight to middleweight for his last fight. That should be a big advantage for Dolidze on Saturday as he’s used to bigger, more powerful opponents. He also boasts a 4.5-inch reach advantage and should be able to control the action on the ground. We’re on Dolidze moneyline.

We think there’s value on Kirk as the significant underdog here. The UFC newcomer steps up on a week’s notice, which might be helpful in that he doesn’t have time to overthink the biggest fight of his career. Amirkhani got pieced up on his feet in a decision loss to Edson Barboza in his last fight and has now dropped two of three, albeit against strong competition. Amirkhani is a beast on the mat, but Kirk has a three-inch reach advantage and can hold his own with six career victories via submission. Should be an exciting fight and we think Kirk moneyline is worth a touch.

Oakland is 9-3 as a road favorite this season and will be well-rested after two days off. The bats are also hot as the Athletics just scored 23 runs in a three-game set at Seattle. Starting pitcher Frankie Montas tossed 5.1 scoreless innings in his last start against the Angels and righted the ship with a 3.18 ERA in May after an awful start to the season. Colorado’s Jon Gray has a 2.36 ERA at home, but he hasn’t gone more than six innings in any of his last seven starts. That’s a problem because the Rockies have the worst bullpen in the league, as we saw yet again Thursday when Colorado relievers gave up six runs in the final three innings against the Rangers. Athletics moneyline is the play.

We cashed on the Royals Thursday and we’re going back for more tonight. Kansas City starter Brad Keller doesn’t look like much on paper with a 5.68 ERA, but he went 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA in the month of May. The Royals bats are also hot with a league-best .902 team OPS over the past week. Minnesota’s Matt Shoemaker has been getting shelled and posted a 6.16 ERA in May. He also gave up five earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Royals last week. Royals moneyline is the play.

Toronto lefty Hyun Jin Ryu has been one of the most reliable starters in the game all season. He’s gone at least five innings in nine of 10 appearances and boasts a 58-8 strikeout-walk ratio. The Blue Jays also have the best team OPS in the league at .769. Astros starter Zack Greinke has given up at least three earned runs in five of his last seven starts and has his work cut out for him tonight. We’re on Blue Jays moneyline.

The Padres actually had the longer trip to Petco Park, flying back from Chicago after getting swept by the Cubs to cap a 10-game road swing. The Mets flew in from Arizona coming off a series win over the Diamondbacks and send Taijuan Walker to the mound tonight. The 28-year-old righty threw five scoreless innings in his last start and looks to keep it going against a struggling Padres offense. Yu Darvish has been very good for most of the season, but he gave up four earned runs in five innings and had some command issues in his last start. We like the value on Mets moneyline at +155.

Twins veteran J.A. Happ regressed in a big way last month, posting an 8.49 ERA in May. And he’s been awful on the road all season with a 7.08 ERA in away games. The Royals are starting to hit and rank third in team OPS over the past week (.884). Kansas City lefty Kris Bubic has been lights out lately and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any appearance this year. The Royals also have the better bullpen. We’re on Royals moneyline.

The Rockies are 8-2 as a home favorite this season and we like them again today. Lefty Austin Gomber has been dialed in lately and thrives at home, posting a 1.88 ERA at Coors so far this season. Texas’ Mike Foltynewicz has been fine recently, but 12 homers allowed on the year doesn’t bode well in Denver. The Rangers have lost eight straight and have been held to three runs or fewer in six consecutive games. Rockies moneyline is the play.