Dan Kilbridge

Utah State is one of the worst teams in the country from what we’ve seen, firing coach Gary Anderson after just three games this season. Only two teams have averaged fewer yards with Utah State compiling just 242.8 yards per game, and only four teams have given up more with the Aggies allowing 528.5 yards per game. New Mexico is also 0-4 but doesn’t look totally incompetent. The Lobos were shutout against a solid Air Force defense last week but should be able to move the ball with ease against the Aggies. We like the Lobos to pick up their first win of the year and cover -6.5 against this awful Utah State team.

Neither team is very strong on offense and Air Force eats a lot of clock with that rushing attack. The Falcons also have an above-average defense that gives up just 105 rushing yards per game. The Rams have been equally solid against the run so we’re expecting a field position battle with both teams looking to establish themselves in the trenches. Don’t expect too many fireworks at Falcon Stadium and hop on the under at 54.5.

We’re impressed with the Bearcats and surprised this line isn’t higher. UCF has the No. 1 offense in the country, but they’re making hay against a lot of inferior competition. Cincinnati has the No. 10 defense in the country. All of UCF’s opponents have been outside the top 70 in total defense aside from Tulsa, and the Golden Hurricane held UCF under 500 yards in a 34-26 win over the Knights. The rushing attack sparks so much of UCF’s offense, and it’s not going to be easy against a Bearcats defense allowing 112 yards per game on the ground. Cincinnati finally has an offense that can pull its weight – the Bearcats average 40-plus points per game. If Cincinnati can stuff the run like it has all season, it might be a long afternoon for UCF. We’re on the Bearcats -4.5.

Very strong defenses here, but the total is a little low for two unbeaten teams with capable offenses. Wisconsin would have sent this total over by itself in each of the first two games, with the Badgers scoring 45 points against Illinois and 49 against Michigan. Big step up in competition this week, obviously, but quarterback Graham Mertz has been steady in relief of the injured Jack Coan. He’s completing 74.4% of his passes with seven touchdowns and no turnovers. The Wildcats offense has been relatively quiet aside from a 43-3 win over Maryland. But they’re doing enough to get the job done. If they step up in this game, Northwestern will be competitive and the over hits easily. If they can’t sustain drives to give the defense a breather against this Badgers offense, Wisconsin probably wins in a blowout. Both scenarios point to the over at 44 and that’s what we’re taking in Evanston.

The Ducks turned it on in the fourth quarter for a 43-29 win over Washington State last week. The offense looks reliable through two games and UCLA’s defense won’t be able to hang for four quarters. The Bruins looked great in holding Cal to less than 200 yards last week, but Colorado ran all over them in the opener with 525 offensive yards. Oregon will want to get off to a fast start after easing into things the past two weeks, and the Ducks have covered seven of their last nine games dating back to last season. We expect that trend to continue with a cover for Oregon -13.5.

The only way the under hits here is if BYU wins the game something like 56-0. We think the score could be close to that by halftime. North Alabama picked a rough year to schedule BYU and coach Chris Willis says this will be the best team he’s faced in 20 years. The Lions’ offense has been bad enough against Big South opponents and will struggle to pick up first downs, so BYU quarterback and Heisman contender Zach Wilson will be working with a short field all night. It won’t be pretty for North Alabama and BYU might cover this total on its own. We’re on the over at 58.5.

Unbeaten Coastal Carolina is looking for its first ever win against Appalachian State, and the Chanticleers can definitely pull it off. But we’re expecting a very close game and it’s surprising to see this line set higher than +3. App State’s 17-7 loss to unbeaten Marshall is the only blemish on the Mountaineers’ schedule, and one could argue that loss is just as impressive as Coastal Carolina’s best win, a 30-27 victory over Louisiana. App State has the slightly better defense in this matchup and averages 260 rushing yards on offense, so we’d be shocked if the Chanticleers run away with it. We’re taking the points here at App State +5.

New Mexico is 0-2, but it has had the far tougher start in terms of schedule. The Lobos dropped a close one to Hawaii last week and hung tough for most of a 38-21 loss to San Jose State in the opener. Nevada’s stats look great on paper but they’ve played really weak competition in Wyoming, UNLV and a Utah State team that was so bad coach Gary Anderson was fired after the game. The Lobos have some pieces on offense and should keep this one within two scores. We’re on New Mexico +17.5.

That Northwestern defense is for real. The Wildcats are especially strong in the secondary, giving up just 192.3 passing yards per game. Purdue looks one-dimensional early on, with a strong passing attack but very little production on the ground. You can see the excitement and self-belief from Northwestern on gameday and a lockdown defense will take you far in the Big Ten. How good does that 43-3 win over Maryland look now that the Terps have knocked off Minnesota and Penn State? We’re on the Wildcats at -2.5.

We’re very comfortable fading Utah State in this spot. The Aggies are 0-3 and haven’t been competitive once. They fired head coach Gary Anderson over the weekend. They only average 209 yards on offense and give up 520 a game. This is a bad football team, bottom line. We can pounce on that with a balanced Fresno State team coming off double-digit wins over Colorado State and UNLV. Utah State is already 0-3 against the spread. We want to take advantage of this game before everyone east of the Colorado River realizes how much trouble the Aggies are in this season. We’re on Fresno State -10.

We don’t see a path for the Blue Raiders to stay competitive in this one. Marshall is 6-0 and ranks third in the nation in total defense, first among teams that have played at least four games. There’s no room for Middle Tennessee to run with the Herd allowing just 66.8 rushing yards per game. Blue Raiders quarterback Asher O’Hara has been a turnover machine with eight interceptions this season. It’s a big number, for sure, but that’s college football betting. Give us Marshall -24.