Dan Kilbridge

We’re going to keep backing this reds lineup until further notice. We especially liked what we saw from starter Jeff Hoffman his last time out, when he gave up just one earned run in five innings and held the Cardinals at bay. Arizona is really struggling to hit and sends reliever Riley Smith to the mound for the first MLB start of his career. It’ll be a tough assignment. We’re on Reds moneyline.

Orioles lefty Bruce Zimmerman was fine in his first start against Boston, allowing three earned runs on four hits with five strikeouts and no walks in six innings pitched. But the Red Sox lineup has since woken up with 33 runs scored over their last four games. Boston starter Garrett Richards lasted just two innings in his first start, allowing seven earned runs on six hits. Baltimore should be able to get after Richards. Both bullpens are also in the bottom third of the league in opponent batting average. We’re on Over 9.5 runs at Camden Yards.

The Pirates have not won since beating the Cubs on Opening Day, and we don’t expect them to get No. 2 today. Chicago starter Zach Davies tossed 5.2 impressive innings in a win over Pittsburgh earlier this season, and the Cubs have shelled Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller throughout his career. Cubs moneyline is the play.

A’s starter Frankie Montas looks to keep the momentum going from Oakland’s second win of the season Friday. He’ll face a strong Houston lineup backed by Astros starter Jose Urquidy. Montas got shelled for seven runs in 2.2 innings pitched against the Dodgers in his season debut. Things won’t get any easier this afternoon against the Astros. Urquidy looks to build on a strong first start and an excellent 2020, and the A’s lineup continues to struggle. We’re on Astros moneyline.

We think Leishman is worth a touch on live betting at +2000 to win the Masters. His irons have been exceptional all week. The driver has been a little touch-and-go, but Tiger Woods and many others have proved you can get away with that and still win at Augusta. He’s only two shots back to start the second round and has been in this position before. We think this could be the time he finally capitalizes and gets it done at a major.

The Astros have crushed left-handed pitching this season and got after A’s southpaw Cole Irvin in a hurry when they saw him last week. Houston starter Christian Javier gave up two earned runs in 3.1 innings for a no decision in his first start, but the command was there and he didn’t walk anyone. He was also lights out in five home starts last season. The A’s probably aren’t as bad as their 1-6 record indicates, but we don’t like their chances tonight. We’re on Astros moneyline.

Griffin Canning has been a reliable-if-not-spectacular starter in his first two seasons with the Angels. The Blue Jays haven’t done much at the plate so far and send Ross Stripling to the mound – the righty had a tough 2020 and gave up three earned runs on seven hits in 3.1 innings for his debut in a loss to the Yankees. It was a long trip for the Angels from California to the Blue Jays’ temporary home in Florida, but Toronto has had a hectic travel schedule this season as well. There’s plenty of pop in this Angels lineup and Stripling seems like he’s in a funk. Angels moneyline is the play.

Brewers starter Corbin Burnes had a brutal loss in his first start against the Twins, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning and striking out 11. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright had a tough opener, giving up six earned runs in just 2.2 innings pitched against Cincinnati. But that was out of character for the veteran and the Reds have been hitting everyone hard at home this season. We like him to bounce back against a weak Brewers lineup and match a strong showing from Burnes. These also look like two of the best bullpens so far. We’re on under 7.5 runs.

Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez returns for his first start since 2019 after missing all of last season. He looked ready to rock this spring and the Orioles have not been hitting despite their 4-2 start. The Red Sox bats are hot with 26 runs scored in a three-game sweep of the Rays and Boston has already seen Orioles starter Matt Harvey once this season. The Red Sox only touched him for two earned runs but chased him out in the fifth inning, and we like their chances to get after him earlier today. We’re on Boston moneyline.

Rahm has been excellent throughout most of the season, logging seven top-10s in 11 starts. He was also the only top-ranked seed to make it out of group stage at the Match Play. Furthermore, Rahm loves this course and the creativity it allows with his vast shot-shaping skills. His face lights up when he talks about it. And of everyone in the field who’s played more than one Masters, Rahm has the best career scoring average at 70.25 in 16 rounds played. We believe Rahm will win multiple green jackets over the course of his career, and this could be the year he adds the first.

We wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Zalatoris make a run in his first career Masters. The 24-year-old proved last year he can handle the big stage with a T-6 at the U.S. Open, his only major appearance in 2020. He’s played consistently well all season with five top-10s and 10 top-25s in 14 events. He’s fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach, a great indicator of Augusta National success. And he’s still off the radar among so many big names entering his Masters debut. We think the price is right on Zalatoris to contend as he has looked the part all season long.

Luke Weaver had a tough go in 2020 and somehow looked even worse this spring – the Diamondbacks righty gave up eight home runs in 14.2 innings coming off a year in which he went 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA. Coors Field is the worst possible venue for a guy like that to make his season debut. Colorado starter German Marquez had some serious command issues in his first start with six walks, but he still scrapped his way to a no decision by allowing one earned run on six hits. The Diamondbacks also can’t get anything going on offense and scored just three runs over their last three games. Rockies moneyline is the play.

Texas starter Dane Dunning had a strong rookie season with the White Sox before being traded as part of a deal for Lance Lynn. He faces a guy going the wrong direction in veteran Tanner Roark – the right-hander gave up 14 home runs in just 11 starts last season and posted a 6.80 ERA. Joey Gallo is off to a hot start for Texas and this lefty-heavy lineup should be ready to do damage tonight. We’re on the underdog Rangers.

The Reds are on a tear with 26 runs scored over their last three games. They should be able to get after Pirates starter Trevor Cahill again tonight as the 33-year-old makes his first start of the season. Cincinnati counters with 34-year-old Wade Miley, who has dealt with all sorts of injuries lately and missed time in spring training due to a hamstring problem. Should be a clear night with temps in the mid-70s and we don’t expect either starter to make it out of the sixth inning. We’re on the over at Great American Ballpark.

Casey Mize makes his season debut for Detroit against a red-hot Twins lineup. Mize, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, only made it out of the fifth inning once in seven starts last season and posted a 6.99 ERA as a rookie. The Twins are off to a hot start and rank fifth with a .846 team OPS through four games. Small sample size, obviously, but they will be looking to jump on Mize early. Minnesota starter J.A. Happ has been extremely consistent throughout his career and we expect a strong performance in his season debut. We’re on Twins moneyline for the 1:10 p.m. start.

This makes sense for a lot of reasons. The Most Outstanding Player award has gone to a guy on the winning team every year since 1983. It also has gone to a guard on the winning team in six consecutive NCAA Tournaments. Seeing as Gonzaga is +205 to cut down the nets and Jalen Suggs is a do-everything guard, we see a lot of value at +900. Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert is the favorite at +700 and is a very dangerous 3-point shooter, but he also spends a lot of time in the paint. Suggs runs the operation with 14.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists. If the Bulldogs do win it all, we’re confident Suggs will be the driving factor. We’re on him at +900.

UCLA has had success winning ugly, completely shutting down Michigan’s offense in a 51-49 win. There’s just no way to do that against Gonzaga. With Jalen Suggs running point, Corey Kispert flying around the wing and Drew Timme banging in the paint, the Zags will create good looks and run their razor-sharp system until the other team taps. We don’t see anything UCLA can do defensively that will change that given their personnel, and when the Bulldogs get rolling they just don’t quit. We’re on Gonzaga -14.

There’s no doubt Houston is one of the top defensive teams in the nation, but the Bears can lock down, too. Baylor allowed an average of just 60.3 points in the first four rounds of the NCAA Tournament and meet a Houston team that hasn’t scored more than 67 points in its last three games. Bears guard Davion Mitchell is a great equalizer here – he’s probably the best on-ball defender in the country, and he has plenty of help in the backcourt on the other end. Houston has been very successful imposing its will to get to the Final Four, but the Cougars also made history by facing four double-digit seeds en route to the semifinals. Baylor and Gonzaga have been the two best teams in the country all season and Houston isn’t getting enough points here. We’re on Baylor -5.

The Mariners stunned the Giants Thursday with a six-run rally in the eighth inning and pulled off the 8-7 comeback win in the 10th. That’s the kind of momentum that can carry over. Johnny Cueto takes the bump for the Giants tonight, and it’s been a rough couple of years for the 35-year-old. His spring training starts didn’t instill any confidence that things will soon head in the right direction. Mariners starter Yusei Kikuchi improved in 2020 and really cut down on the big mistake, allowing just three homers in nine starts. We expect a strong outing from him and another rough go for Cueto. We’re on the Mariners -121.

Two young guns take the mound tonight in an intriguing matchup. A’s starter Jesus Luzardo is entering his first full season with the club and showed tons of promise in 2020. He also had several starts go off the rails in a hurry and gave up nine home runs in nine starts. Houston’s Christian Javier is another promising young talent, but he also gave up 11 home runs in 10 starts. Both bullpens are suspect as well. We’re on the Over at 8.5.

The highly-touted White Sox bullpen already has a loss under its belt, with the Angels rallying late for a 4-3 win on Opening Day. The Sox send Dallas Keuchel to the mound tonight against a lineup that has hit him harder than most over the years, particularly Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. Dexter Fowler was also a nice addition to this Angels lineup that now has some pop up-and-down the order. Angels starter Andrew Heaney is finally healthy and should have some success against a Sox lineup that was fourth in the MLB in strikeouts a year ago. We’re on the Angels -115.

Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough is a reliable lefty entering his third season and continues to improve, the victim of a tough-luck 1-4 record in 2020 despite posting a 3.56 ERA. He took a no-decision against Miami last year with no runs allowed on four hits in 6.2 innings pitched. The Rays also hit Marlins starter Pablo Lopez hard last season as he took two losses against Tampa Bay. Things like run support usually even out from year-to-year, and we expect a solid outing from Yarbrough with more help from the Tampa Bay bats. We’re on the Rays -110.

Wise has been solid off the tee and with the irons this season, and he put it all together for a T-13 finish at the Honda Classic. He was positive in every Strokes Gained category and should be a good fit at TPC San Antonio, despite missing the cut in his first Valero appearance. Putnam has the better course history, but he’s really struggling with the driver lately. He’s had some great results but can’t seem to find the consistency. We’re on Wise -105 in this matchup at BetMGM.

It’s not just that Moore has an outstanding track record here – solo third, solo seventh, T-18 and T-8 in four career starts – his irons were also very sharp despite a missed cut two weeks ago at the Honda Classic. He’s great off the tee and that’s usually the name of the game at TPC San Antonio. Huh is playing well but hasn’t had any success of note at this golf course. We’re on Moore at -109 on DraftKings.

Varner has been getting closer this season with five top-25s in 13 starts. The ballstriking has been very solid and should propel him to another solid finish this week. He’s better off the tee and on approach than Hadwin, who rode a hot putter to a T-8 finish at the Honda Classic. He was also near the bottom of the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, and we expect a bit of a regression this week. Varner has had success at TPC San Antonio before and we like his chances. We’re on Varner at -105 in this matchup at FOXBet.

Kuchar has played well at this course and finished seventh his last time out in 2019. But his game isn’t even close to where it was then, and he’s struggled all season with five missed cuts and no top-25s other than last week’s third-place Match Play finish. He looked good in Austin, for sure, but he also played seven matches in five days. That’s a ton of golf. He’s 42 now and it’s not easy to just flip the switch again after such a physically and mentally draining week. We expect he’ll struggle out of the gate and like Kuchar missed cut +160 at BetMGM.

It’s been a rough year for Chappell, but he clearly found something at the Honda Classic. The driver was on point, the irons were sharp and he bounced back from a third-round 75 with a 5-under 65 on Sunday. Chappell also has four top-20 finishes in eight starts here, including a win, a T-4 and a T-2. This course just works for him and the game was in strong form the last time Chappell teed it up. We’re on him for a top-20 finish +400.

After an opening weekend filled with stunners and upsets, order is being restored in the later rounds. We’ve already seen No. 1 seed Baylor and No. 2 Houston advance to the Final Four against scrappy contenders. We expect more of the same tonight. The No. 11 seed Bruins have had a wild run but Michigan has controlled its destiny from the jump, with very little drama in its first three games. The Wolverines are the much better defensive team and have been rolling on offense all month. They look like one of only two or three teams capable of giving Gonzaga a game. They have to get past the Bruins first, and we’re confident they’ll do it in convincing fashion. Michigan -6.5 is the play.

This is just the fifth time all season Gonzaga hasn’t been a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs are 3-1 against the spread when the line is less than 10 and are looking for their fourth straight cover in the NCAA Tournament. USC has plenty of size and will have a better chance to slow the Bulldogs down than past opponents. But it’s just that – a chance. USC shut Oregon down in the first half but gave up 42 to the Ducks in the second half. Gonzaga is just too persistent and it will take a near-perfect defensive effort from USC to hang in this one for 40 minutes. We’re on Gonzaga -8.

This should be a fun one that lives up to the billing. Gonzaga’s ability to score 85-plus is never in doubt no matter who it plays. Even a USC team that’s very strong defensively will have plenty of trouble disrupting the Bulldogs on that end. However, the Trojans are one of the very few teams who match up with Gonzaga’s bigs and are just as capable of ripping off big scoring runs and creating open looks. We’re hoping for a thriller and expecting plenty of buckets on both sides. We’re on the Over at 154.

We weren’t surprised to see Arkansas in a fight to the end against Oral Roberts. The Golden Eagles were a legit threat and we were impressed to see the Razorbacks survive another close one as opposed to completely down on their chances in the Elite Eight. Baylor will be the toughest test yet for Arkansas, but we think the Razorbacks can turn it into a track meet and keep pace. They’re far more resilient than they get credit for having won 12 of their last 13 games, and this Bears team is strong but beatable. We think they should have the edge and advance to the Final Four in a close one, but we like the points here. Arkansas +7.5 is the play.

Two very strong backcourts in this one and that’s a great sign for scoring. Arkansas is one of the fastest teams in the nation and always wants to get out and run. Baylor should be game after slogging out back-to-back wins against Wisconsin and Villanova, two of the slowest teams in the country by far in terms of tempo. We’re expecting a track meet tonight with both teams averaging more than 81 points per game in the regular season. Arkansas and Baylor haven’t been scoring at the same clip due in the NCAA Tournament due to matchups, but that should change tonight. Over 147.5 is the play.

The Beavers are on an incredible run, but all good things come to an end. Houston is very similar to Loyola defensively with far better offensive execution. The Cougars will put the clamps on Oregon State and, unlike Loyola, will be able to take advantage of it on the other end with open looks and transition buckets. Houston is still under the radar entering the Elite Eight and will finally get its due with a big statement win over the Beavers tonight. We’re on Houston -7.5.

Oregon has only been held under 60 points one time this season, and it came during a 72-58 loss to USC in late February. The Trojans have a massive size and reach advantage over the Ducks, who will be giving up several inches at pretty much every position. USC is also a very strong defensive squad and we’re not expecting the Ducks to look anything like they did when shooting 55.9% against the Hawkeyes last weekend. The Trojans also like to slow it way down when it suits them. In a high-stakes game with two familiar teams, we’re expecting a close one where every possession matters. Under 138 is the play.

This time of year, the team that wants to slow it down is usually successful in doing so. That’s Florida State in this matchup with the Seminoles continuing to put the clamps on opponents. But Michigan has been very strong on that end over the last few weeks as well and the Seminoles really struggled to hit shots in the opening weekend, including going 0 for 9 from the perimeter in the first-round win over UNC Greensboro. They’ll do better than that Sunday, but this should be a fun slugfest that looks a lot different than Michigan’s 86-78 win over LSU. Under 143.5 is the play.

Creighton wins with defense and you do not beat Gonzaga with defense. The Bulldogs don’t have any trouble getting stops at No. 7 in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency and they’re also the most dangerous offensive team in the nation. They create mismatches everywhere and don’t have any missing pieces. Creighton hasn’t proved it can hang with the top teams in the country, with just three wins over ranked opponents during a down year in the Big East. Gonzaga will wear down this Bluejays squad and inevitably pull away for the cover. We’re on Gonzaga -13.