Dan Kilbridge

The Aggies have won 10 straight games, most of them against offensively-inept opponents who couldn’t keep pace. It won’t be so easy against a hot Rams offense that can actually trade buckets and prevent big Utah State runs. This should be a really fun matchup with two of the top teams in the Mountain West going at it. We’re expecting a close, high-scoring matchup and a cover for Colorado State at +8.5

The Rebels are having a tough time away from home and have lost three straight road games. They’ve also lost five of their last six overall. Mississippi State has won three of four, including a 78-63 win over No. 19 Missouri. The Bulldogs are 6-3 against the spread at home, while Ole Miss is 1-3 against the spread on the road. Mississippi State has also had the upperhand in this rivalry for the past eight years and should keep it going tonight. We’re on the Bulldogs -2.

It’s been another rough year for DePaul, but we like the Blue Demons to get their first conference win tonight. Butler tries to slow things down as much as possible but still gives up too many open looks on the defensive end. DePaul is the better shooting team and has the advantage on the boards. We’re on the Blue Demons -1.

The Mountain West doubleheaders have been fun to watch this season, with UNLV coming off a 77-54 win over New Mexico on Saturday. They meet again tonight and we expect a similar outcome. New Mexico is nearly the worst 3-point shooting team in the country, ranked 345th at an average of 24.7% from deep. The Lobos still try to shoot their way out of trouble, as they did when falling behind 10-2 early Saturday. That just made things worse and they finished 3 of 18 from 3-point range. UNLV also outscored New Mexico 34-16 in the paint as the Lobos had no answer for Mbacke Diong. The 6-foot-11 forward shot 9 of 11 from the floor for a career-high 20 points. This is a bad matchup for New Mexico all around, and we already saw it play out that way just two days ago. We’re on the Rebels -11.5.

Baylor’s top-five offense gets most of the attention, but the Bears have been getting it done on the defensive end lately. They average 87.2 points on the season but have only scored 70.3 over their last three games. Defensively, Baylor is holding opponents to 56.7 points over that same stretch. Kansas is holding opponents to just 66 points over the last three games. The Jayhawks are gonna look to slow the pace and win ugly. That’s how Kansas pulled off a 64-61 upset against a No. 1-ranked Bears team last season. We’re expecting a similar matchup tonight and jumping on Under 140.5.

The Jaguars have been low on numbers with several key players opting out or suffering injuries. They’ve still kept it together on offense behind 21.2 ppg from senior guard Michael Flowers. South Alabama has lost three in a row, but two of those were against first-place Coastal Carolina. Appalachian State is a better matchup for the Jaguars. This is also South Alabama’s first home game in a month, and the Jaguars are 5-1 in their own building this season. The Mountaineers haven’t played a road game since mid-December and are out of their comfort zone tonight. The Jaguars have struggled lately, but we expect them to bounce back with a home win and a cover at -2.5.

Buffalo took Syracuse to overtime as a +10.5 underdog on Dec. 19 before a three-week layoff. The Bulls looked great when they returned last week with a pair of wins over Ball State and Western Michigan. And they have one of the hottest offenses in the nation, averaging 89 points over their last three games. Bowling Green can fill it up too, and the total for this one is 163.5. The Falcons inflated their offensive numbers in back-to-back games against a terrible Central Michigan squad earlier this month, scoring 90-plus in both. But they came back to reality in their last game, an 88-64 loss to Ball State. Buffalo has been shooting the lights out lately and is looking to avenge an early-season loss at Bowling Green. Bulls flip the script tonight and cover -4.5 at home.

BYU’s offense is really clicking lately with an average of 81 points over the last three games. Saint Mary’s is 9-3 but hasn’t looked right in recent weeks, averaging just 58.7 points over the last three games. The Cougars haven’t beaten Saint Mary’s on the road since 2014 and will be highly motivated to change that in what’s become a serious West Coast Conference rivalry. They move the ball with purpose and average 17.8 assists per game. That translates even against a strong defensive team like Saint Mary’s. And while we don’t usually consider the transitive property in our bets, both teams played San Diego State over a four-day stretch last month – BYU won 72-62, Saint Mary’s lost 74-49. Cougars cover +1.5 tonight.

The Aggies are riding an eight-game win streak and won their last four games by an average of 30.5 points. They’re also averaging 84.3 points a night in their first six Mountain West games. San Diego State will be their toughest conference matchup to date and the Aztecs have played a far more difficult schedule. But they’ve only played one road game all season and will see an extremely confident Utah State team that’s covered six games in a row. Aggies make it seven tonight and cover -1.

The Demon Deacons are a mess this season. They have a new coach with a completely overhauled roster, and they missed out on a long stretch of games due to COVID postponements. Wake Forest’s 3-3 record is also misleading – those wins came against Delaware State, Longwood and Catawba College. The Cardinals have won four in a row and are only giving up 62.8 points per game. On paper, this looks like a relatively competitive matchup. It’s not. Louisville rolls and covers -7.5.

The Southern Conference is an offense-first league and both of these squads can score. The Bears are a great Over team, putting up 81.6 points per night and giving up 73.2 on the other end of the floor. Chattanooga is averaging 79.7 points over its last three games and is coming off a 92-87 loss at The Citadel. Mercer has seen the total go Over in six of its first seven games, and we expect that trend to continue tonight. Over 150.5 is the play.

The Bulldogs look like a solid defensive team on paper, giving up 69 points per night. That’s mostly because they slow the game down so much to help cover for a brutally inefficient offense. Opponents are still shooting 47.4% against Butler this season, and St. John’s will push the tempo all night behind an offense averaging 80.8 points a game. This is also a big step down in competition with the Red Storm coming off back-to-back losses against No. 9-ranked Creighton and a 10-2 Xavier team. Butler will struggle to keep up with the pace and isn’t built to take advantage of a weak Red Storm defense. St. John’s covers -2.

This is just the second road game of the season for the Blue Devils, first in a month. They’re up against a hot Hokies offense averaging 80.8 points over the last five home games. Virginia Tech is also the better defensive team, giving up just 64.9 points a night. Hokies big man Keve Aluma can hold his own against Duke’s Matthew Hurt, and neither team is great on the perimeter. The line varies by book, but Virginia Tech +1.5 is still available. We’re jumping on that and taking the Hokies for a home cover.

Nick Saban has adapted to the modern game better than any coach in the country. He knows great defenses no longer beat great offenses. Thus, he built an offensive juggernaut that few teams have even come close to stopping this season. As successful as Ohio State was against Clemson, the Buckeyes secondary is not what it used to be. They gave up more passing yards than any Big Ten team this season, and Trevor Lawrence still passed for 400 yards in Clemson’s College Football Playoff loss. Mac Jones and DeVonta Smith are on a different level entirely this year, and they’ll prove it with a win and a cover at -8 in the National Championship.

The Trojans have been playing lockdown defense lately, allowing just 60.3 points over their last three games. Opponents are only shooting 35.4% against USC, sixth-best in the nation. That’ll slow down an Arizona team that’s grown comfortable winning with offense over the past month. It could also frustrate a very young Wildcats core, with standout freshmen like James Akinjo and Azuolas Tubelis. This is a gut-check game for both teams, and it should be a close one. We’re taking the points and riding with USC +4.5.

The Badgers are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, averaging 41.4% from deep. Indiana is one of the worst at 32.7%. Wisconsin senior D’Mitrik Trice has also been lights out lately with 29 points in a win at Michigan State and 25 points in a loss at Maryland. Wisconsin is the stronger defensive team and comes in with fresh legs for its first game since New Year’s Eve. Badgers roll and cover -8.5 at the Kohl Center.

This might look like a bigger mismatch on paper, but the Terps should be able to hang with the Hawkeyes at home. Iowa’s prolific offense is tough to stop, but the Hawkeyes have been giving up way too many points on the other end lately. They’re allowing 83 points a night over the past three games and Maryland is solid offensively, shooting 47.4% from the field. A desperate Terps team coming off back-to-back losses slows this game down behind a strong defense and covers +5.5.

Virginia coach Tony Bennett says the Cavaliers will have enough guys to play tonight. He didn’t say much else. The Cavs will be without several players due to contact tracing protocols after Saturday’s game against Virginia Tech was called off. That should even the playing field quite a bit, even with Wake Forest potentially down a few players as well. It’s shaping up like an ugly game and the total is only 124. Virginia should handle its business, but we like Wake Forest to grind out a decent showing and cover +14.5.

It seems like everyone loves Boston College and the points here with Mike Krzyzewski unable to coach due to a home quarantine. That brought the line down to -11.5 and we think it’s a good one for the Blue Devils. The Eagles are a bad defensive team and especially futile in the paint. That’s a green light for Duke’s Matthew Hurt to take over with the sophomore forward averaging 18.8 points per game. Boston College is 0-3 in conference play and its only two wins this season are against Rhode Island and Maine. The Eagles have been blown out a few times, losing by 20 to Florida and 38 to Syracuse. This one probably won’t get that out of hand, but we still like Duke to cover -11.5 behind a big night from Hurt.