Erik Halterman

The pitching matchup between Kyle Hendricks and Randy Vasquez is an anachronistic one. The last time MLB had a strikeout rate as low as Hendricks' 14.2 percent was in 1985; the last time it was as low as Vasquez's 10.4 percent was in 1951. All that contact is sure to lead to plenty of hits, and likely plenty of runs as well. The Over, and particularly the Over in the first five innings, could also be interesting bets in this game.

The Dodgers ought to have the advantage on offense here (though the Cubs' lineup has come out of the gate hot), and they certainly have the advantage once it gets to the bullpen. What keeps this line fairly close to even is the presence of Shota Imanaga, who has a 2.22 ERA through five starts after posting a 2.91 ERA last year. But Imanaga's strikout rate has collapsed from 25.1 percent to 18.6 percent while his walk rate jumped from 4.0 percent to 8.8 percent. He also gives up too many flyballs, and with the wind blowing out at Wrigley, I'm siding with groundball pitcher Dustin May.

Mariners starter Bryce Miller is to a large extent the product of a very pitcher-friendly home in Seattle, something he won't get to enjoy today. For his career, he has a 2.73 ERA at T-Mobile Park and a 4.60 ERA everywhere else. He also has a poor 13:8 K:BB to go with his 4.50 ERA this season. Meanwhile, Reds starter Nick Martinez may own a 6.06 ERA through three starts, but that comes with a 3.80 SIERA and 15:4 K:BB.

This matchup features a pair of decent (or better) lineups in a great hitter's park against a pair of pitchers whose starts to the season don't match their reputations. Gausman may have an acceptable 3.97 ERA after two starts, but his 4:3 K:BB in 11.1 innings is quite poor. His bat-missing ability took a big step back last season, so it's worrisome to see him with a single-digit strikeout rate (9.8%) so far. Houck has struggled as well, with a 6.52 ERA and 8:5 K:BB in 9.2 frames.