Steve Bulanda

Winning on the road at Oregon was a breakthrough game for an Indiana team that had otherwise been questioned because of benefiting from a very favorable schedule since the beginning of last season. But the Hoosiers were also losing at Iowa and at Penn State in the fourth quarter. Needless to say, Ohio State is far superior to both Iowa and Penn State, and the Buckeyes haven't shown any signs of weakness. Only Texas Tech (11-1) has been better against the spread than Ohio State (10-1-1). Buckeyes by a TD.

How high is too high for a game total? The books never figured that out for North Texas games, as they've been 9-3 to the over. North Texas is the highest scoring team in the country at 46.8 points per game with 52+ points in 5 of the past 6 games. Tulane has averaged a solid 28.7 per game and should be able to exploit a North Texas defense that has allowed 27.8 points per game over the past nine, including allowing 20+ to two of the worst scoring offenses in the country: Charlotte and Rice.

The Aggies could use another ranked win to prove that they are legit title contenders, as their only great win was at Notre Dame. The Longhorns could keep slim playoff hopes alive with the upset win. So both teams should come in motivated. I just trust A&M's offense to put points on the board more than I trust Texas's offense. Only Auburn has limited the Aggies to fewer than 31 points, while the Longhorns have had six such games. And then there's the trend that puts this bet over the top: since Coach Steve Sarkisian took over in 2021, Texas is just 2-7 ATS as an underdog, for a 22.2% win percentage, worst in the country.

Michigan surprised me with its dominant win over Auburn, but the Wolverines won't catch Gonzaga off guard. Gonzaga has won every game by at least 10 points, including pulling away in the second half against a high end Alabama team on Monday. Michigan barely beat unranked TCU and Wake Forest earlier this season. Both Michigan and Gonzaga are among the best in the country in points per game and points allowed per game, but Gonzaga has an edge in turnovers and turnovers forced, which could be the difference in this one.

Michigan is undefeated after blowing out San Diego State by 40 points yesterday. It was an impressive performance that will surely shift a lot of bettors to the Michigan side today. But I'm looking at the full body of work, and the Wolverines have played below expectations, going 1-3 against the spread prior to yesterday's big win. I'm going with an Auburn team that has been a bit underrated and exceeded expectations on its way to a 5-1 record ATS. Auburn is finally fully healthy after 4-star freshman Simon Walker (foot) missed the first four games and top big men Keyshawn Hall (foot) and KeShawn Murphy (ankle) missed games more recently.

Going back to the well on a bet that has paid off throughout the season: fading Wisconsin in the first half. In the past eight games, the Badgers have scored a total of 17 first half points and haven't scored more than seven first half points in any of those games. On the other side, Illinois has scored at least 14 first half points in 5 of the past 6 games, with Ohio State being the only team to contain them.

A trend that we cashed on last week that I'm sticking with: fading Michigan on the road. The Wolverines are now 1-4 ATS in away games and 3-7 ATS overall. Michigan has yet to win an away game by more than 11 points this season, while Maryland has kept conference home games close, other than one blowout versus #2 Indiana. The Terrapins are a team that's trending down, but they are getting enough points to cover in the last home game of the season.