2023 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

Though the NBA Draft didn’t feature any real significant trades or wild upsets, there was intrigue at the top when the Orlando Magic opted for Duke’s Paolo Banchero with the first pick over Auburn’s Jabari Smith. The odds for who would go first overall swung dramatically in the days and hours leading up to the draft, but ultimately it was the 6-foot-7 Banchero who heard his name called first.

It’s no surprise, then, that Banchero also leads the way in Caesars Sportsbook’s first 2023 NBA Rookie of the Year odds market. He’s got competition at the top from Smith, who went third to Houston, and Jaden Ivey, who went fifth to the Pistons.

No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren, the newest member of the Thunder, is out for the season after suffering a Lisfranc injury.

2023 NBA Rookie of the Year Betting Tips

Volume is key in Rookie of the Year race

Throw efficiency out the window. We want cold, hard volume numbers when it comes to our NBA picks for the Rookie of the Year. From 2001 to 2022, 19 of 21 rookie award winners played at least 30 minutes per game. In that 21-year span, a total of 81 rookies averaged 30 or more minutes, or 3.8 per season.

If you can hone in on those 3 or 4 players who will average 30+ minutes, you’ll have an easier time locating your Rookie of the Year. Good candidates for this threshold include Banchero (Orlando), Ivey (Detroit), and Johnny Davis (Washington).

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History suggests pick a guard

Consider that since 2005, 12 of the 17 winners were guards (Paul, Roy, Rose, Evans, Irving, Lillard, MCW, Brogdon, Simmons, Doncic, Morant, Ball). The top four picks in 2022 were all bigs (though Banchero is certainly a facilitator) with Ivey going off the board at No. 5.

He’s a true combo guard who should play well alongside last year’s top pick, Cade Cunningham. The Pistons are going to give Ivey all the run he can handle, so it wouldn’t surprise us to see him float to the top of Rookie of the Year leaderboards the deeper we get into the season.

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Look at top picks first

This is not breaking news, but the top picks in the draft often become Rookie of the Year NBA betting favorites and eventual winners. But let’s dig a little deeper to see how strong this correlation really is. Beginning with LeBron James in 2004 through 2022, here’s where each Rookie of the Year was drafted:

1st or 2nd: 10 winners

3rd or 4th: 5 winners

5th or later: 4 winners

The top pick actually hasn’t won Rookie of the Year since Ben Simmons in 2018 (and he was technically a redshirt), but the point here is that you’ll want to keep your Rookie of the Year picks toward the top of the class. Consider that the Rookie of the Year has come outside the top-10 just twice since 1990 (MCW, Brodgon). Don’t look for a diamond in the rough here.

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Long Shot Rookie of the Year Pick

So if you are looking at NBA futures markets and considering a diamond in the rough (despite our advice above), then consider this: From 2000 to 2021, 14 of the 22 Rookie of the Year winners led their class in scoring. Seven others finished second or third. That’s potentially good news for Cleveland’s Ochai Agbaji, who averaged 18.8 points—including 2.6 triples on nearly 41% shooting from deep—and should step in right away on a Cavs team that finished 20th in offensive efficiency and made 3-pointers last season.

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He’s a true underdog at +2500, but Evan Mobley easily could have won the award last season—Cleveland knows how to develop its rookies. With the launch of Ohio sports betting set for Jan. 1, 2023, bettors in the Buckeye State should check in then to scout Agbaji's odds.

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Our NBA Rookie of the Year Pick

We loved Chet Holmgren's odds prior to his season-ending foot injury, but now we'll shift our odds toward the prohibitive favorite. Paolo Banchero is getting the keys to the car in Orlando, and he should average 30+ minutes right out of the gates.

With Jonathan Isaac still on the sidelines, Banchero will lead the Magic in scoring (and perhaps assists), which is a great indicator of Rookie of the Year winners. This class took a hit with Holmgren's injury, but Banchero is still elite in every sense of the word. Grab his odds, even if they don't offer terrific value at +200.

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NBA Rookie Records

Every points record is held by Wilt Chamberlain. The Big Dipper scored 58 points on 24-of-41 shooting against the Pistons on Jan. 25, 1960, still the most a rookie has ever scored. He did it again a month later against the Knicks. Chamberlain holds the rookie records for scoring and rebounding in a rookie season. San Francisco Warriors guard Rick Barry had 57 points on Dec. 14, 1965, in a game vs. the Knicks. New York still won.

Other key statistical groups are owned by players who didn't win Rookie of the Year honors. Mark Jackson of the Knicks has the most assists in a rookie season (868), while the steals leader is the Pacers' Dudley Bradley (211), 7-foot-7 center Manute Bol had 397 blocks his first year with the Washington Bullets, and Nets rookie Kerry Kittles hit 158 3-pointers.

Who is the best NBA rookie of all time?

Wilt Chamberlain was the most statistically dominating player in NBA history, from the first time he stepped onto an NBA court. For his entire rookie year, he averaged 37.6 points and 27.0 rebounds per game, winning the NBA MVP award his first season as well. Oscar Robertson of the Cincinnati Royals is the closest challenger. He recorded a whopping 26 triple-doubles his rookie year in 1960-61, in an era when players weren't recording triple-doubles. No other rookie has ever managed more than 12. The "Big O" averaged 30.5 ppg, 10.1 rpg and 9.7 apg his first year.