Betting Tip: @ 6/1 with bet365
The King Edward VII Stakes is a Group 2 for colts and geldings over 1m4f and often attracts also-rans from the Epsom Derby, though such horses don’t have a particularly good record.
While Aidan O’Brien has a disappointing record in this race, that is largely because is it is far from being his chief target and his Beacon Rock, a comfortable winner of the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes over 1m2f when last seen in May, has been pointed at it since. The son of Galileo made all on that occasion and should have no trouble getting today’s extra two furlongs, with the third Foxtrot Charlie giving the form a boost when when landing a Listed contest next time. On balance then he’s a worthy favourite at around the 3/1 mark.
Who else is fancied?
Carntop is next in the betting and there was a lot to like about his close second in the Lingfield Derby Trial, a half-length behind the winner Humphrey Bogart and with a length to spare over the third Across The Stars (who both re-oppose here). The latter horse has since finished a well beaten tenth in the Derby, but Carntop missed Epsom to wait for this and, as a thoroughly unexposed middle-distance stayer, he must have a leading chance. He’s owned by Prince Charles and the Duchess of Cornwall, so he’d be an appropriate winner at the royal meeting and a day before The Queen’s unofficial 9oth birthday – not that it will make him run any quicker!
Choreographer is another to have missed the Derby for this having finished only seventh in the Dante at York, which doesn’t tell the full story. It took an age for him to get a clear run in the home straight and then, once he got some room, he was stopped again inside the final furlong, before making eye-catching late headway. A ready winner of a Windsor maiden (1m2f, good to soft) on his sole previous start, he is open to plenty of improvement and that is very likely now he steps up to 1m4f.
Ger Lyons’ Lustrous Light is another with just two starts under his belt and he appeared to have a good bit left when passing the post in front at Navan last time (1m2f, good to yielding), with his rider keen to not give him a hard race. This is far tougher of course, but he’s an exciting prospect.
Any decent outsiders?
John Gosden won this race with Nathaniel and Eagle Top in 2011 and 2014, so his pair of Linguistic and Muntahaa are not discounted lightly. Aidan O’Brien has a second string in Housesofparliament but he’s had his limitations already exposed and was only fourth behind stablemate Beacon Rock last time. He may be on pacemaker duties.
Best bookie offer?
Paddy Power are refunding losing stakes as a free bet (up to £25) if your horse finishes second to the SP favourite, most likely Beacon Rock, while bet365 are going one quarter the odds instead of the standard fifth.
Who’s going to win?
Beacon Rock has every chance of staying 1m4f on pedigree – and may even improve for it – but he’s been running in Group races since last September and others may be open to more improvement. Past results tell us that it usually pays to side with emerging talent, as opposed to those who have been prepared for Classics, and Roger Varian’s CHOREOGRAPHER is certainly in that bracket. A son of Sea The Stars and a whopping 850,000euros purchase, he can start paying some of that back with a victory here.
Choreographer 2pts @ 13/2 Paddy Power (money back if he finishes second to the favourite)
Betting Tip: @ 6/1 with bet365