Queen Mary Stakes tips – French raider a value each-way alternative to favourite

Queen Mary Stakes tips – French raider a value each-way alternative to favourite

Queen Mary

Al Johrah

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Betting Tip: Al Johrah @ 10/1 with skybet

The Queen Mary Stakes is a Group 2 for two-year-old fillies run over 5f and the fact the runners tend to have very little experience makes it a difficult race to weigh up, though that didn’t stop punters steaming into Acapulco 12 months ago and she didn’t disappoint.

Who’s favourite?
This houses one of the shortest-priced favourites of the entire meeting in the shape of Wesley Ward’s Lady Aurelia, who made a winning debut at Keeneland in April (over 41/2f), setting a new course record in the process. Two of Ward’s six Royal Ascot winners have come in this race, including Acapulco (who is by the same sire Scat Daddy) 12 months ago, and he has made no secret of just how well she has been working on turf. Of course, all that is now reflected in her price – she’s no bigger than 9/4 – and potential backers are guessing over whether she will act on a soft surface.

Who else is fancied?
It’s 10/1 bar Lady Aurelia and all bar two of her rivals have won a race, so there has to be some value amongst them? Tom Dascombe’s Kachess didn’t beat much when scoring on her debut at Goodwood but she travelled like the winner throughout to surge three lengths clear at the finish and the winning time was decent.

French raider Al Johrah, a daughter of Bated Breath, has shown plenty of speed in wins at Maisons-Laffitte and Chantilly, the latest of those on soft ground. The fact her upwardly-mobile trainer has decided to send her over is perhaps a tip in itself.

Aidan O’Brien’s Roly Poly ran green on her Naas debut yet still managed to hang on by a short head and connections were quick to mention the royal meeting as a possible target. She could finish only fourth on her next start, but the winner Caravaggio boosted the form when landing Tuesday’s Coventry Stakes and Ryan Moore is booked.

Any decent outsiders?
Mark Johnston doesn’t tilt at windmills with his juveniles and both his runners, Camargue and Katrine, need respecting. The former in particular showed good speed when winning over track and trip last time and may be more streetwise than most of these after three runs.

Best bookie offer?
The standard each-way terms are one fifth the odds and three places, so bet365’s one quarter the odds is noteworthy.

Who’s going to win?
When Wesley ward gets excited about a horse it usually pays to take notice but his enthusiasm for Lady Aurelia has filtered through to her price and, with the ground a big unknown, it could pay to look elsewhere for some value. I’ve stopped at French challenger AL JOHRAH. It’s hard to weigh up her form but she’s certainly speedy and is proven with cut in the ground.

SELECTION

Al Johrah 0.5pt each-way @ 10/1 bet365 (1/4 odds, 1.2.3)

Betting Tip: Al Johrah @ 10/1 with skybet

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