The Derby tips – two value outsiders against the favourite

The Derby tips – two value outsiders against the favourite

Delano Roosevelt

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Betting Tip: @ Delano Roosevelt each-way @ 16/1 with betfair

The presence of a standout horse in Saxon Warrior adds considerable intrigue to this year’s Derby and, as the best horse in the race, he should win if staying the trip. That’s no given, though, as his dam was best over 7f and failed to last home in the Oaks, while the speed he showed when landing the 2000 Guineas didn’t mark him down as a stayer. Ten furlongs would be a formality, but not this far and especially as conditions are expected to be testing.

Of course, Ryan Moore will ride him as if he’s convinced he’ll get the trip and that’s the only way around here as it’s very hard to make up ground. Pour Moi and Wings Of Eagles are recent examples of horses winning from a long way back, but generally you need to be in the first or five turning in. So there will be no hiding place for Moore if there are chinks in the stamina of Saxon Warrior and the more superstitious amongst us won’t be touching him with a bargepole after he was handed the inside draw. Horses who emerged from the number one box are 6709957500 in the last ten years and a low draw might be even more disadvantageous this year if the runners track over to the stands’ side in search of better ground.

All that said, I still think he is the most likely winner and some bookmakers are tempting us with even money quotes, having been odds-on across the board a few days ago. However, I’m going to resist for all the reasons given and my job now is to find one at a price to take him on with.

It certainly won’t be Dante winner Roaring Lion as I’ve got even bigger reservations about him staying the trip on ground that is going to far from ideal, while his tendency to hang left under pressure could cause Oisin Murphy a few problems. He’s a place lay for me.

Hazapour, who is a nephew of 2016 Derby hero Harzand, should stay this far. However, he had less than a length to spare over Ballydoyle’s DELANO ROOSEVELT when landing the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and the fast-finishing runner-up must have an excellent chance of reversing the form over today’s extra two furlongs. As a big horse, there is a a slight worry about him handling the track, but if Seamie Heffernan can hold his position in the early stages he could well reward each-way backers at Betfair’s 16/1.

At even bigger odds, I’m going to suggest a small each-way interest on Mark Johnston’s DEE EX BEE with Ladbrokes going a standout 22/1 – he might be even bigger on the morning of the race once the price war starts in earnest. He’s more exposed than ideal after seven starts, but we know he handles the track as he won over 1m2f here last October (heavy ground) and also finished a close up third in the Derby Trial run here on his seasonal reappearance, despite a less than enterprising ride. He stepped up on that when finishing a clear second behind Young Rascal in the Chester Vase, his first try over 1m4f, and might have won that day had he not been switched wide around horses to make his effort in the straight.

The winner of that Chester race is a general second favourite behind Saxon Warrior and handled this track well in a recent racecourse gallop, he should go well. But wherever he finishes Dee Ex Bee is sure to be in close proximity and he’s a much bigger price. I’ve been following racing long enough now to know that it never pays to underestimate the stable’s battle-hardened three-year-olds as they tend to keep finding improvement, and this fellow might be in a similar mould. The booking of Silvestre De Sousa, who rides this track better than most (40-176, 23%, for a profit of £26.53 to £1 level-stakes), clinches the bet.

So, with potential stamina limitations concerning the favourite, who is going to need a bit of Lady Luck going his way besides, I’m happy to back a couple against him at each-way odds.

SELECTIONS

Delano Roosevelt each-way @ 16/1 Betfair
Dee Ex Bee each-way @ 22/1 Ladbrokes

Betting Tip: @ Delano Roosevelt each-way @ 16/1 with betfair

All odds were correct at time of posting.

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