York 4.00 (Ebor) tips – Jardine runner a Shrewd investment

York 4.00 (Ebor) tips - Jardine runner a Shrewd investment

Ebor

Shrewd

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Betting Tip: Shrewd @ 12/1 with bet365

After the defection of ante post favourite Ivan Grozny, bookmakers have latched on to Godolphin’s Antiquarium as market leader, with 6/1 the best quote around. That he should be favourite is hard to dispute as he produced a whirlwind finish to land the Northumberland Plate last time and that is the best staying handicap run in Britain this year. He’s up 6lb in the ratings for that but this lightly-raced sort may be capable of rating even higher as he remains unexposed as a stayer.

So it’s a case of all aboard the favourite then? Well, not quite as this race has been a graveyard for market leaders with just one, Purple Moon in 2007, obliging since 1998, and we’ve also seen plenty of shock results in that time – the last 14 Ebors have produced one winner at 100/1, one at 33/1, four at 25/1 and two at 20/1. It’s safe to say then that pretty much any of the 21-runner field can win and I need make no excuses for putting up a relative outsider as my idea of the best best. The beast in question being the Ian Jardine-trained SHREWD, who is available to back at 12/1, having been as big as 20/1 on Friday.

Why do I like him? He’s a horse who hasn’t stopped improving since joining his current stable last September, winning five times (thrice over hurdles) and scoring impressively over course and distance two starts back. He couldn’t follow up when returned here for a better race last time, but they went an ordinary gallop and he’s always been best coming off a fast pace, which he should get today. He doesn’t want it too quick so yesterday’s rain would have been welcomed by connections and they’ve made an interesting jockey booking by securing the services of the in-form Clifford Lee, who is excellent value for his 7lb claim. The draw in stall ten is okay too as last year’s winner Litigant became the first to emerge from a single-figure stall since 2004.

There’s plenty to like then and I’ll be disappointed if he can’t at least finish in the money – bet365 being the place to back him as they are paying out on five places!

Betting Tip: Shrewd @ 12/1 with bet365

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