MLB World Series Winner Odds

MLB World Series Betting Trends

Offense Over Pitching: Good pitching beats good hitting, as they say. But that may not be true anymore. In fact, four of the last eight World Series champions ranked No. 1 in MLB in runs scored per game. Five of the last eight champs ranked 10th or worse in ERA.

The Over Hits: Oddsmakers haven't caught up to the swing-for-the-fences style, even in World Series betting. The last two seasons, the Over is a remarkable 12-6-1. Over the last eight years, the Over is 28-20.

Favorites Keep Scores Down: In 2020, the Dodgers beat the Rays in six games, with the Over hitting in four of them. That bucked a trend. Over the previous five seasons, in the three instances the series favorite won the title, the Under hit more often than not. In the two times the favorite pulled the upset, the Over was more successful. Which MLB team you back in the World Series should inform your totals bet. Last season, the underdog Braves won and the under and over split, 3-3.

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Can The Atlanta Braves Repeat As World Series Champions?

The last team to repeat as World Series champions were the 1998-2000 New York Yankees. That team three-peated and was able to maintain its core of players throughout its mini-run. Among them were Jorge Posada, Tino Martinez, Derek Jeter, Paul O’Neill, Bernie Williams, Roger Clemens, Andy Petite and Mariano Rivera. That the Braves won last year without Ronald Acuña for the second half of the season was remarkable. But lightning rarely strikes twice in a row – never mind twice. The Braves will first need Acuña fully healthy throughout 2022 if they hope to repeat as champs.

The Braves lost Freddie Freeman to free agency and replaced him with Matt Olson. And World Series MVP Jorge Soler landed with the Miami Marlins. This lineup – as a whole – won’t be strong enough to repeat, especially when compared to what the Dodgers have in the NL West.

Pitching is always an issue – especially these days when 5 innings is the new complete game. The days of John Smoltz, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine each making 35 starts and throwing 200-plus innings aren’t coming back. Starting pitcher Mike Soroka missed the entire season due to injury and Charlie Morton went down with a broken leg in Game 1 of the World Series. Expect some new, veteran arms. The Braves shored up their bullpen by poaching free-agent closer Kenley Jansen from the Dodgers.

Right now, it’s hard to see the 2022 Braves repeating only because history says they can’t. Atlanta is +1200 at BetMGM and +900 at PointsBet to do so. The Braves have the foundation to build another contender with just a few new parts this season at the trade deadline.

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Is This The Year The New York Yankees Finally Add Another Title?

The Yankees have spent nearly $4 billion in payroll over the past 21 seasons and have just one championship to show for it – 2009. This past season was as big a disappointment as the Yankees could have imagined. Not only did the team fail to win the AL East, Gerrit Cole was flattened by the rival Red Sox in the wild-card game at Boston.

Cole is the epitome of all that is right and wrong with the Pinstripes. He went 16-8 overall in 2021 over 30 starts. He posted a 3.23 ERA and 243 Ks over 181.1 innings. Yet, he gave up 2 homers and 3 earned runs over just 2 innings of work in that 6-2 wild-card loss at Fenway Park. The Yankees and Cole are wedded for another seven years and $252 million.

Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are a lethal combination in the middle of their lineup. Closer Aroldis Chapman is usually untouchable, except against the Red Sox or Astros. But Aaron Boone needs depth in the rotation, stability at catcher, center field and third base.

The Yankees were the second-favorite behind the Dodgers to win it all in 2021. The Yankees are +1100 at BetMGM and +1300 at FanDuel to win the 2022 Fall Classic. That price is too high still. Hold off.

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Can The Houston Astros Regroup After Another Disappointment?

The Astros have yet to win a World Series in two tries since their tainted 2017 championship. This has all the makings of the Billy Goat/Bambino type curse in the making. If you believe in such things, there’s nothing the Astros can do to win another title until they renounce the one they won five years ago.

Those in the temporal realm know this team has a solid core and pitching staff, even if they’re not allowed to throw more than 5 innings at a time until the ALCS. Carlos Correa led the exodus and landed in Minnesota. The Astros have Yuli Gurriel on a club option and Justin Verlander is back.

The return of manager Dusty Baker is a strong positive sign that this team could well regroup for another title run. The loss of Correa may be a sign that this team might shift into a reload mode. Hold off here, given that they are +1000 at Caesars Sportsbook after being as high as +650 before Correa signed with the Twins.

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Can The Dodgers Win A World Series After A Full Season?

The Dodgers won the 2020 World Series after the COVID-19-shortened season. They were the overall favorite to win in 2021 before the year began. And they hold the same position heading into 2022. The Dodgers are +475 at DraftKings to win the 2022 World Series and +480 at FanDuel.

The Dodgers enter 2022 with another lineup that is packed with talent. Freddie Freeman joins Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Justin Turner and Julio Urías.

The Dodgers won 106 games in 2021 but were forced into the Wild Card game because the Giants won 107 to take the NL West. Los Angeles was knocked out of the NLCS by the Astros in six games. The Dodgers scored just 2 runs in three of their four losses in the series.

Closer Kenley Jansen and starter Max Scherzer are gone. Jansen was replaced by veteran Craig Kimbrel. Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw will have to combine for 35 wins and 400 innings if the Dodgers hope to win the West.

Keep that in mind when betting MLB odds this season.

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World Series Futures Odds Betting Tips

Some simple baseball betting tips can help you when deciding on your futures bet.

Fade The Favorite: Perhaps more than any other sport, the eventual World Series champion can often be found down the MLB futures odds board. Of the last 12 World Series winners, 10 of them were available at +1150 or higher at some point in the season, and more than half were +2000 or higher. The Los Angeles Dodgers were an exception to the rule in the shortened 2020 season, a +385 preseason favorite to win it all. The Washington Nationals were a +6250 World Series bet on June 1 but eventually beat the Astros to win the 2019 crown. The Braves were +5000 during the summer in 2021.

Follow Win Total Futures: The last two champions before Atlanta won in 2021, the Dodgers and Nationals, had preseason win total futures posted at 96.5 and 94.5 wins, respectively. The previous five winners, however, had futures in the 81.5 to 87 range. Atlanta was 91.5. Seven of the last 10 champs hit the Over on this particular MLB futures bet.

Interleague Success: It make be coincidence, but it's a strong coincidence. Teams that take care of business in interleague play have been there at the end of the MLB postseason. The last five World Series champions have each won between 70-80% of interleague action. It's a powerful trend that could help cull the potential futures field.

3 MLB 2022 World Series Outliers To Consider

Philadelphia Philles: The NL East already has the defending world champion Braves and the Mets. But the expanded playoff format in 2022 is perfect for a team like the Phillies, who are short on pitching but could power their way into the postseason. As expected, the Phillies spent some serious cash during the short free-agency period after the lockout ended to help out defending NL MVP Bryce Harper, along with Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto. Philadelphia's re-tooled lineup includes a pair of boppers in Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. It's been a decade since Philly sniffed the postseason. That drought could well end in 2022.

Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays put on a late surge in 2021 and barely missed out on a playoff spot with 91 wins. The Jays’ lineup is scary-good, anchored by 2021 MVP-runner-up Vlad Guerrero Jr. Toronto has already chewed up most of its value and is among the favorites in the AL.

The right moves in the lineup and rotation could be enough to get past at least one of the other big three in the AL East. No doubt, Ontario sports betting fans will be excited to back the Blue Jays now the province has legal sports wagering in time for the 2022 season.

San Diego Padres: What happened to the Padres? In early July, they were battling the Dodgers and Giants for first place. By the end of the season, they were 28 games out in third. Manager Jayce Tinger was dismissed after a 79-83 finish. The Padres are one of the best teams in the majors on paper and on the analytic data chart. The Padres’ collapse in the second half of the season was breathtaking, lowlighted by the collapse of the team’s starting rotation, a nagging shoulder injury that kept Fernando Tatis Jr. out of the lineup and dysfunction in the clubhouse. Tatis suffered a non-baseball injury this offseason but should only miss limited time.

Three-time Manager of the Year Bob Melvin is taking over as skipper and should give this team of talented young stars a steady hand in the dugout. If Tatis returns healthy - he has opted out of surgery - and starters Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger are effective and healthy, this team should rock.