NFL Week 7 Betting Recap Winners & Losers: Plenty Of Red

By Bill Speros

Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EST

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There are two major trends emerging this NFL Betting season. 

Both are deep RED.

One, the presence of Taylor Swift means the Chiefs will win.

Two, the public is getting crushed on Sundays. 

To the first. The Kansas City Swifties (-5.5) rolled to a never-in-doubt win and cover over the Chargers 31-17 Sunday. The Chiefs lost their home opener. But the Swifties are 6-0. They have covered in 5 of those wins and would have covered in the 6^th but Patrick Mahomes wisely ran out of bounds to make sure the Chiefs could kill the clock in their 23-20 win over the Jets. 

Travis Kelce is another solid bet when Taylor Swift is watching from the luxury suites. In the four games with Swift in attendance, Kelce is averaging 108 receiving yards. In the games she was not, his average is a mere 46.5 YPG. 

It’s clear Park Avenue will do whatever it can to get the Swifites deep into to the postseason. We’ve seen two games this season in which game-swinging questionable calls incorrectly went KC’s way. Make of that what you will. 

Yes, Taylor Swift can easily make Super Bowl 58 TS has concert in Tokyo 🇯🇵 on Saturday, Feb. 10 at 6 pm local timeTokyo 🛫 Las Vegas: 12 HRSTokyo 🕙 16+ HRS Las VegasSwift leaves Tokyo at noon Sunday 2/11Arrives in Las Vegas at 8 am Sunday 2/11SB Kickoff: 3:28 pm VT… pic.twitter.com/tJkA0HwKCX— Bill Speros (@billsperos) October 22, 2023

And in case you are wondering, Swift’s Asian tour schedule in 2024 does leave ample time for her to get to Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas as a spectator and back her beau. She has a show in Tokyo on Feb. 10 and on in Australia on Feb. 16. Thanks in large part to the time change headed from Japan to Nevada, she can easily make it to Allegiant Stadium well before kickoff. 

Public Swims In Red During Week 7

The public has been bleeding cash of late, finishing deep in the red for the third week in a row. Big name favorites fell, delivering lopsided wins for the books on spread and moneyline bets; and wiping out millions of parlay wagers in the process. 

The Patriot pulled off their biggest point-spread upset of the post-Tom Brady Era Sunday. The 8.5-point home dogs delivered Bill Belichick his 300^th career coaching win with a 29-25 thriller over the beleaguered Bills. 

The sentiment was nearly universal for the Bills. 

“The early slate yesterday was the best early slate of the year for us,” reports Borgata AC Director of Race and Sports Thomas Gable. “The Bills losing that game was the biggest win of the day for us for sure. No one was taking the Patriots there.”

Breakdown By The Book 

SuperBookSports 

Risk Manager Andrew Babakitis enjoyed a doubly successful Week 7. A Steelers fan, Babakitis saw his team snag a “home” road win against the Rams at SoFi Stadium. His book saw its balance sheet swell early in the day, as well. “Another great day for the book basically all the morning games were very good for the book. 

Obviously with the Bills being the biggest,” he told bookies.com Sunday evening. The book continues its run into the green Sunday night as the Eagles win and cover offset “some very large wagers on the Dolphins” in a game that otherwise saw “pretty solid two-way action.”  

His book saw the sharps win on the Bears (+3) and Broncos as a pick, but give back some money on the Rams (-3). 

Borgata AC

The public clawed back some of its losses in the late-Sunday slot, thanks in part to a major wager on the Broncos that hit. The Chiefs win and cover over the Chargers aided the public, as well.. “We couldn’t get one decision to go our way in the late slate though. We ended up needing the Eagles last night, which was an unusual position for us at least,” Gable said. 

DraftKings 

The numbers tell the story for the public at the Boston-based book, which swept all 7 games that saw a public spread liability of 70% or greater. 

Here’s a rundown: 

The public pulled back some cash in the later games, but not nearly enough to offset the washout in the early time slot. 

BetMGM

Public crushed todayMost-Bet Teams 🎫🚫 1. DET +3🚫 2. BUF -7.53. PHI -3 Mos-Bet Teams 💰🚫1. DET +32. PHI -3🚫 3. BUF -7.5Sentiment 💰🚫 1. TB -2.5 (90%)2. PHI -2.5 (88%)🚫 3. BUF -7.5 (86%)🚫 3. CLE -2.5 (86%)via @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/W9uegAacfa— Bill Speros (@billsperos) October 22, 2023

The tale of the tape was similar at BetMGM. Two of the book’s top three most-bet moneyline underdogs also lost: the Lions (+135) and the Dolphins (+125). The public rallied Sunday night, as the Dolphins floundered in Philly and only scored one TD on offense. 

Betting Pool Update 

#CircaSurvivor 2023 🏈🏆Week 7 Selections📄 Complete selections: https://t.co/QUjKiJT759 pic.twitter.com/mca5SMO0V5— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) October 22, 2023

Buffalo’s loss at New England thinned the herd of survivors in the Circa Survivor pool Sunday. There were 194 players who got knocked out courtesy of Bill Belichick’s 300^th career NFL coaching victory. 

Another 99 were claimed when the Rams lost “at home” to Pittsburgh. And 45 players check out once the Raiders lost to the Bears. Through Sunday night’s game, 1,284 of the 9,267 entrants remain, or 13.8%. Of those, 47 have the 49ers Monday night against Minnesota. 

Major NFL Week 7 Bets Of Note

Wagers listed with net wins/losses. 

DraftKings

• Win $9,715 on $5 8-Leg Anytime TD Scorer Parlay 
  Jahmyr Gibbs
  Gus Edwards
  Lamar Jackson
  Mark Andrews
  Nelson Agholor 
  Jonathan Taylor
  Kareem Hunt 
• Win: $18,525 on $25,000 PHl ML Wager (-135) 
• Loss: $24,895 Payout: 8-Leg $100 Parlay On Dolphins ML 
• Loss: $76,500 Payout: $1,500 On All Teams Get TD & FG In 1 p.m. Slot  

Caesars Sportsbook

• Loss: $136,000 on Dolphins ML (+135)
• Loss: $110,000 on Chargers +5.5 (-110) 
• Win: $200,000 on Steelers +3.5 (-110)
• Win: $200,000 on Eagles -2.5 (-110)

Borgata AC

• Win: $104,545.45 on Broncos +1 (-110) 

About the Author

Bill Speros

More About Bill

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.