By Dan Kilbridge | | 5 mins
Georgia vs Alabama Predictions & Picks For SEC Championship Game
Forgive Georgia and Alabama if they robbed us of potentially-huge SEC games with serious playoff implications throughout 2021. They’ve been the two top dogs in conference all year and games involving any other teams went down like a nice bowl of French onion soup – something to enjoy while waiting for the main event.
Now the top two teams in the country on betting apps, it’s finally time for the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide to meet in the SEC title game in Atlanta with everything on the line.
Alabama is going for its fifth conference championship in seven years, while the No. 1-ranked Bulldogs are looking to keep the perfect season intact ahead of the College Football Playoff. Georgia is a -220 favorite at sportsbooks and betting sites to win the natty and Alabama is next with college football odds of +650.
For Alabama, it’s pretty simple. Win and you’re in. Lose by any margin and the two-loss Tide will be at the mercy of the CFP committee. For Georgia, it’s an opportunity to add a signature win on a perfect season and put the rest of the country on notice going into the playoff.
Odds subject to change.
Alabama Vs Georgia Key Matchups
John Metchie & Jameson Williams vs. Georgia Secondary: Running on this Bulldogs defense is an extremely tall order. Alabama will throw a lot and this is an epic matchup of strength-on-strength. Georgia’s DBs haven’t seen a one-two punch like Metchie and Williams, and the Tide’s top wideouts haven’t seen anything like this Georgia secondary. Getting them open is Alabama’s best chance at an upset by far.
Georgia Running Backs vs. Alabama Linebackers: Georgia has rushed for 200-plus yards in three straight games, with another embarrassment of riches at their disposal in tailbacks Zamir White, James Cook and Kenny McIntosh. Alabama linebackers Henry To’oTo’o and Will Anderson Jr. need to plug the gaps and force the Bulldogs into third-and-long situations. They just held Auburn to 22 rushing yards on 40 attempts but need to take it to an even higher level to face this beast of a backfield.
Nick Saban vs. Kirby Smart: With so much talent on the field, little adjustments and schemes can end up making the difference. Smart is 0-3 against Saban with the Bulldogs but gave him all he could handle in the Tide’s 26-23 overtime victory in the 2017 national title game. He almost got him again the following season as Georgia came up just short in a 35-28 loss in the 2018 SEC title game. The history these two coaches have shared on the biggest of stages in just the past four years should lead to another epic chess match at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Alabama Vs Georgia Moneyline
Georgia is still a heavy favorite to win the national championship largely because the Bulldogs are expected to win this one at -250 on the moneyline. This game was viewed as a toss-up for much of the season, but the market swung as Alabama endured a few close calls and Georgia continued to dominate week after week. Now the Tide are a +200 underdog after their four-overtime comeback win over Auburn.
We do like the Bulldogs to get it done and finally take out Alabama in a big game. Saban’s offense is down (relatively speaking, at No. 7 in the nation), and this Georgia defense is better than any we’ve seen in years, the bizarro version of that record-setting LSU offense in 2019. Georgia hasn’t flinched since a 10-3 win over Clemson in the season opener. The Bulldogs have been on the wrong end of big games like this for a while, but that’s priceless experience the program can tap into every time it gets back in this spot.
We expect Georgia to do just that and hit on the -250 monyeline.
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Alabama Vs Georgia Point Spread
While Georgia is the betting favorite, we do expect another thriller with Alabama covering the +6.5 spread in a close one.
The Tide defense checks in at No. 7 in the country and just put on a dominant performance in the Iron Bowl. They’ve held three of their past four opponents under 300 total yards of offense and the Bulldogs don’t win with offense.
Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett isn’t asked to do much thanks to that elite rushing attack, but he hasn’t thrown for more than 288 yards in any game this season. He also figures to face more pressure than he’s seen against this Alabama front seven. Bottom line – Alabama’s defense is good enough to keep them in this matchup until the end. The offense just won’t be good enough to go out and win it in crunch time.
We’re taking Alabama +6.5 on our betting apps.
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Alabama Vs Georgia Total
The Over/Under is set at 50.5 for the title game clash and the public seems to favor the over, as they always do in big games regardless of who’s playing.
Both teams average over 40 points per game on offense, but it’s hard to see anything close to that production level on either side given the matchups. However, Alabama and Georgia both take care of the football and have good kickers. Those field goals add up and a few weird bounces could send the total up in a way that’s not totally indicative of how it played out.
We’d tend to lean under 50.5 but won’t be taking any college football betting action on the total.
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