Michigan vs Penn State Picks, Predictions & Betting Preview

By Jordan Horrobin Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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Even after a crushing loss two weeks ago, playoff hopes are alive for No. 7 Michigan entering the final three weeks of its season. The Wolverines head to Happy Valley this Saturday for a noon ET kickoff against the Penn State Nittany Lions, a team that has won three of the past four games in this matchup.

With Penn State at home, the college football odds indicate this game is essentially a pick ‘em. Is that how we see it? Check out our college football picks for this matchup below.

Odds subject to change.

5 Keys to Michigan vs Penn State

Losing skid ends: The bleeding stopped for Penn State last week after a three-game skid against Iowa, Illinois (yikes) and Ohio State. The Nittany Lions put up 31 points on the road against Maryland, their highest score in a conference game this year.

Injured Wolverines: Michigan running back Blake Corum and receiver Andrel Anthony both carry uncertain statuses into the weekend, but coach Jim Harbaugh gave both “a chance” of playing as of Monday night. Corum and Anthony were both injured in last week’s game against Indiana.

Late-season slip-ups: If you’ve watched Michigan at all in the past decade, you know they don’t typically do their best work in the final month of the season. More recent trends at top sportsbooks back that up, as the Wolverines are 1-5 against the spread in their past six November games.

Rehashing an old wound: Two weeks ago, a fumble-recovery touchdown that was overturned against the Wolverines cost them big-time in their loss to the Spartans. This week, Harbaugh told reporters the Big Ten had acknowledged its mistake on the call. Doesn’t mean much aside from some retrospective credit for the big-play potential of Michigan’s defense.

Matchup history: As stated up top, Penn State has won three of the past four meetings between these schools. That includes last year’s 27-17 win at the Big House, where the Nittany Lions were one-point favorites. The teams combined for 428 rushing yards and five scores on the ground.

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Michigan vs. Penn State Weather Forecast

State College will see midday temperatures in the low-40s (but it’ll feel like high-30s) on Saturday. That comes with a 40% chance of trace precipitation.

Michigan vs Penn State Moneyline

When you look at Michigan’s season, its lone blemish comes against a one-loss Michigan State team that the Wolverines led handily for most of the way. The Wolverines have an epically potent rushing attack (234 yards per game), and we aren’t sure the Nittany Lions can stop it.

You won’t commonly see such even moneyline odds for a top-10 team facing an unranked squad at this point in the college football betting season, yet here Michigan is at -114. We like that.

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Michigan vs Penn State Point Spread

This game is a rare case where the point spread might be moot. Most of the besr betting sites in the US separate these teams by one point or less. So, our instincts on the moneyline still apply here.

The statuses of Corum and Anthony on Michigan’s side are worth watching out for, though. If those players are ruled out (or ruled in) prior to Saturday, the line could shift accordingly. Taking Michigan plus a few points would be worth it in such a scenario, as the Wolverines can still lean on running back Hassan Haskins if needed (Haskins had 188 total yards and a score last week).

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Michigan vs Penn State Totals

The point total on top betting apps has stayed rigid at 48.5 so far this week, and again we think the statuses of Corum and Anthony are worthwhile factors to consider.

If you can’t get a read on their availability before placing a bet, roll with the under. Michigan has seen the under hit in two of its past three, while Penn State has hit the under in four of its past five.

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About the Author

Jordan Horrobin

More About Jordan

Jordan Horrobin has created sports betting content since 2019, covering everything from the NFL to KBO. Based in Toronto, he has written for MLB.com, The Athletic and Sportsnet.