Aside from Clemson, perhaps, Wisconsin has a strong case to make as the most respected two-loss team in college football. The Badgers were blown out last weekend, their offense has been a nightmare, and they’ve been bumped out of the Associated Press top-25 poll.

And yet, sportsbooks view Wisconsin as narrow favorites ahead of this Saturday’s matchup with No. 14 Michigan. The Badgers host the Wolverines at 11 a.m. local time (noon ET) at Camp Randall Stadium.

Michigan is 4-0, but last week’s win was shaky. Wisconsin has a losing record, but they’ve played against better competition. Here’s our college football picks for this matchup.

Odds are current as of publication. Betting sites may adjust odds as we get closer to kickoff.

5 Keys to Washington vs Michigan

Elite vs. Elite: Michigan wants to run over its opponents, but Wisconsin could be the brick wall that stops them. The Wolverines are fifth in the nation in rushing offense (290.8 yards/game), while the Badgers are first in run defense (23 yards/game). This is, undoubtedly, the biggest storyline.

What can Cade do?: If the Badgers take away the Wolverines’ run game, Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara will have to pick up the slack. He’s off to an efficient, mistake-free start with 10.1 yards/attempt and three passing touchdowns versus zero interceptions. Protecting the ball will remain priority No. 1.

Well-tested teams: According to independent statistician Jeff Sagarin, both teams have faced some very strong opponents to this point. Michigan has three wins over top-40 teams, while Wisconsin has faced two teams in the top-12 (Penn State and Notre Dame, both losses).

Sagarin has Michigan at #4 with three top-40 wins, and I've had to reread it like 10 times to make sure my brain isn't playing a trick on me. pic.twitter.com/iy3JcQZnDu

— Drew Hallett (@DrewCHallett) September 27, 2021

Take care of the ball: While Michigan has zero turnovers in four games this year, Wisconsin has eight turnovers in three games. That includes six interceptions for Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz, four of which came last week against Notre Dame. Wisconsin’s defense is great, but the offense needs to cut down on its carelessness.

It’s been a while: Michigan hasn’t won on the road against Wisconsin since 2001. At that time, Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh was playing in his final NFL season (as a bench-warming quarterback in Carolina). The Wolverines have lost five in a row at Camp Randall since, and only one of those games was decided by fewer than 14 points.

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Michigan vs Wisconsin Weather Forecast

Madison is expected to feature high-60s-to-mid-70s temperatures and a 60% chance of rain on Saturday afternoon. The rainfall will likely be minimal, though.

Michigan vs Wisconsin Moneyline

In a matchup where one team is ranked and unbeaten, the college football odds typically don’t give the other team the edge. But Wisconsin (-130) is one of the few exceptions.

Most believe that the Badgers are much better than their record indicates, but is this the week they change the narrative? Michigan must adapt against the stout run defense, but even then, Wisconsin could mistake itself to death again. We like the Wolverines’ value on the moneyline at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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Michigan vs Wisconsin Point Spread

If you’re going to take the Wolverines as a college football betting underdog, you might as well take them with the 1.5 points, right?

That’s what we’re thinking, and it’s based on the belief that an improved Michigan team will win straight up against Wisconsin for the first time in three tries. If you don’t buy that, though, Wisconsin is the team you should roll with on the moneyline and against the spread on betting apps. A 1.5-point spread is negligible. Grab it at DraftKings.

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Michigan vs Wisconsin Totals

The 43.5-point total at FanDuel suggests a gritty, battle-in-the-trenches-type game. And that’s exactly what we expect this to be.

Michigan will have to at least try to run against Wisconsin, and the results aren’t likely to be very good. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has scored just two total touchdowns against teams not named Eastern Michigan. Michigan has seen the under hit in three of four games, and Wisconsin went under last week on an identical 43.5-point total. We expect another Under this weekend.

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