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Oklahoma at Oklahoma State Picks, Predictions & Betting Preview

David Caraviello for Bookies.com

David Caraviello  | 5 mins

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State Picks, Predictions & Betting Preview

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They call it “Bedlam,” hinting that anything could happen, but lately the nickname has been deceptive. Oklahoma has won six straight and 16 out of the last 18 over Oklahoma State, with 10 Sooners victories over that span coming by double-digits. Saturday, though, could well see this rivalry turned on its head.

It’s not the Sooners, but the Cowboys who are the odds favorites and have more realistic College Football Playoff hopes at stake. It’s not the Pokes, but the Sooners who have looked vulnerable nearly every week. Indeed this game in Stillwater feels like a changing-of-the-guard edition of Bedlam, so expect a lot of college football betting interest for a marquee prime-time matchup.

Odds subject to change.

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State Key Matchups

Oklahoma’s offensive line vs. Malcolm Rodriguez: An All-Big 12 linebacker, Rodriguez is the engine that drives Oklahoma State’s stellar defense, and the key to forcing the Sooners into offensive mistakes.

Caleb Williams vs. Oklahoma State’s secondary: Williams, who has taken over the Sooners’ QB role from Spencer Rattler, is completing 71 percent of his attempts and has thrown for 15 TDs. He’ll be up against an OK State secondary whose members have 168 total career starts, and rank eighth nationally against the pass.

Jaylen Warren vs. Nik Bonitto: Warren is State’s 1,000-yard rusher, and a critical factor in grinding out low-scoring games. Bonitto is OU’s standout linebacker who leads the team in tackles for loss. That individual battle may determine which offense gets to stay on the field.

5 Key Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State Stats

3-2: Oklahoma’s record against the spread as an underdog in five seasons under coach Lincoln Riley, who was hired prior to the 2017 campaign.

46-32-2: Oklahoma State’s record against the spread as a home favorite under coach Mike Gundy, who was hired prior to the 2005 season.

165-23: Cumulative score of Oklahoma State’s last four games (all victories) since its lone loss Oct. 23 against Iowa State.

8.6: Oklahoma’s average margin of victory against FBS opponents this season.

18.3: Oklahoma’s average margin of victory over Oklahoma State in its current six-game winning streak in the series.

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State Weather Forecast

Forecasts early in the week call for a cool but dry Saturday night in Stillwater, Okla. Temperatures are expected to be in the high 40s for the 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff, with a minimal chance of rain. Those making college football picks on this game shouldn’t have to take the weather into consideration.

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State Moneyline

Oklahoma State is a -165 favorite, according to sportsbooks, while OU is a +135 underdog. Oklahoma’s success under Riley has been predicated on a lineage of great quarterbacks running a big-play attack good enough to withstand whatever weaknesses the Sooners have elsewhere.

But everything teeters when there’s inconsistency under center, which is why the Sooners have looked beatable so much of this season. They’ve won six close games, trailed Kansas at the half, and were finally exposed by Baylor. Meanwhile, once pass-happy OK State plays smash-mouth football behind a tough defense. Expect the Sooners to get manhandled up front, and pass on that moneyline unless you bleed crimson and white.

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Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State Point Spread

Oklahoma State is a 3.5-point favorite, according to betting sites. The Cowboys have been among the best teams against the spread this season, going 9-2 and in the midst of a nine-game cover streak. They’ve covered three of their last four as double-digit favorites, including 28.5 against Kansas.

Oklahoma has been less dependable against the number, although the Sooners have covered two of three. Still, throw out the name brands, and this is a textbook case of a team that’s just getting by against a team that’s playing its best, making the Pokes the natural play. We’ll take these college football odds and OK State to cover at home.

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Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State Totals

The total is 50.5, according to betting apps. Bedlam means lots of points, right? After all, in 2018 these teams played a 48-47 game, and in 2017 it was 62-52. The winning team hasn’t scored fewer than 33 points since 2009.

But Oklahoma with its quarterback issues has gone under in three of four, and newly defensive-minded Oklahoma State has gone under in five of seven. The Cowboys have allowed 23 points total over their last four games, and they rank third nationally in total defense. All signs point to the under, and a rare lower-scoring version of Bedlam.

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About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.