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2023 World Series Dbacks-Rangers Picks & Props

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 6 mins

2023 World Series Dbacks-Rangers Picks & Props

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The Texas Rangers were +5000 to win the 2023 World Series back on Opening Day. Think that’s high? The Arizona Diamondbacks were +12500 at betting apps

And yet, these two teams – wild cards who romped through the regular season’s best so far in these playoffs – will meet in the 2023 World Series. The best-of-7 Fall Classic begins on Friday in Arlington. 

Texas swept past the favored Rays and then swept the Orioles, who had more wins than any team in the regular season. From there, they won four times in Houston to upend the Astros in a spirited seven-game series. It’s their first World Series berth since 2011. They’ve yet to win a championship. 

The Diamondbacks may have been an even bigger surprise. As the No. 6 seed in a deep National League, Arizona swept the favored Brewers, swept the rival Dodgers, then bested the mighty Phillies in seven games, winning Games 6 and 7 in Philly. The D’backs made their one-and-only World Series appearance back in 2001, beating the Yankees in 7. 

The Rangers are -170 MLB odds to win the World Series, meaning a $170 bet would win you $100 in profit on a winning pick. The Diamondbacks +145 (a $100 bet would win $145 in profit). 

Bookies.com MLB handicapper Adam Thompson – he hit on nearly 60% of his MLB picks this season and earned a nice profit on those who tailed him in 2023 – reveals his picks for the Fall Classic. 

2022 World Series Best Bets

PropPickOdds
MVP WinnerCorey Seager+550 at DraftKings
Most Home Runs In SeriesChristian Walker+900 at FanDuel
Most Stolen BasesCorbin Carroll+140 at Caesars

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World Series Winner Pick

While each team has its strengths, it is a bit of a matchup of bats vs. arms. The Rangers this season ranked in the Top 3 in MLB in average, home runs and runs scored. Arizona ranked 13th or worse in those categories. 

From a pitching perspective, the Rangers had a better season ERA, but the Diamondbacks have been better in the postseason, especially out of the bullpen. So far in the playoffs, Texas’ starters own a 5.27 ERA, and the bullpen a 5.08 ERA. Arizona’s starters are just as modest (5.01 ERA) but the ‘pen has been shut down (2.31). 

For both pitching staffs, “five” is the magic number for both teams. Each team is 8-1 when holding opponents to under five runs. 

With a similar magic number all postseason, it looks clearer as to which team to back in a best-of-7 showdown. Texas’ offense has been stellar all year. Its biggest issue is a sub-.650 OPS vs. left-handers, but Arizona’s three starters utilized in the NLCS – Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Brandon Pfaadt – were all right-handers. 

Arizona’s road OPS in September and October is just .603, while Texas’ home OPS is .814. 

These teams faced off four times during the regular season. Arizona split a two-game series in Texas and won both of them in Phoenix. We don’t hold a ton of weight of what happened back then, but still worth noting. 

It has the makings of a strong start for the homefield-advantaged Rangers. Texas has the bats to carry it over the hump. Back Texas to win its first-ever World Series at -170. For better odds, Rangers In 6 (+390 at DraftKings) and Rangers In 7 (+400 at BetMGM) are worth plays. 

World Series MVP Pick

MVP Winner: Corey Seager

Odds: +550 at DraftKings

Over the last eight World Series, a starting pitcher has won the award just once, and no relief pitcher has won it since 1999. With this being the era of launch angles and HR-or-bust approaches, it’s not a shock that three of the last four position players to win MVP had multiple home runs. 

The exception was last year, when Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena had 10 hits and batted .400 with an OPS of 1.030 (he also hit a go-ahead HR in a critical Game 5). 

So dingers, mixed in with other key base hits, have been the benchmark for World Series MVP winners. 

Texas hit more dingers than Arizona this postseason, and Adolis Garcia is the reason. He crushed seven over-the-parkers; Arizona’s Alex Thomas (4) is No. 2 on the playoffs rankings. 

Garcia (+500) is the favorite on the World Series MVP futures chart, followed by Corey Seager (+55), then D’backs teammates Corbin Carroll (+1000) and Ketel Marte (+1000). 

The combination of power and straight-up getting the ball into play has us leaning toward Seager, who hit 33 HRs in the regular season with a .327 average. Garcia had 39 HRs but with a .245 average. Seager, for his part, has three HRs in the postseason. 

Last year we hit on Jeremy Pena (+1700) to win MVP. This year we’ll side with Seager, who has the tools and has dominated right-handed pitching from contact and power standpoints. Take Seager to win MVP at +550.

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Top World Series Player Props

Most Home Runs In Series: Christian Walker

Odds: +900 at FanDuel

Walker led the Diamondbacks with 33 home runs. What separates him from other sluggers on both sides, but especially the bashers for the Rangers, is where those homers were hit. 

Of Walker’s HRs, 16 were at home while 17 were on the road. Compare that to the Rangers big hitters: Garcia had 25 home HRs, 14 on the road, Seager 23 at home, 10 on the road. This game starts with two in Texas, then three in Arizona. It must go seven games for the Rangers to play more home games than away. 

Walker’s near-even splits vs. LHP and RHP offer another “take what they give you” vibe. We like Walker to hit the most dingers at great odds. 

Most Stolen Bases: Corbin Carroll

Odds: +140 at Caesars

Carroll had 54 steals in the regular season for the Diamondbacks. Gabriel Perdomo had 16, second-most among postseason actives. Nobody had more than 19 SBs for the Rangers all season. 

Carroll is the big favorite and there’s a reason. His penchant for getting on base only lends to the strong likelihood Carroll runs. This prop feels like it should be at minus odds. We’ll back them here at plus. 

2023 World Series Schedule

Friday, Oct. 27: Game 1, Diamondbacks at Rangers, 8 p.m. ET, FOX

Saturday, Oct. 28: Game 2, Diamondbacks at Rangers, 8 p.m. ET, FOX

Monday, Oct. 30: Game 3, Rangers at Diamondbacks, 8 p.m. ET, FOX

Tuesday, Oct. 31: Game 4, Rangers at Diamondbacks, 8 p.m. ET, FOX

Wednesday, Nov. 1: Game 5, Rangers at Diamondbacks, 8 p.m. ET, FOX*

Friday, Nov. 3: Game 6, Diamondbacks at Rangers, 8 p.m. ET, FOX*

Saturday, Nov. 4: Game 7, Diamondbacks at Rangers, 8 p.m. ET, FOX*

*-if necessary

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.