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AL Wild Card 2021 Yankees at Red Sox Picks & Betting Preview

Jordan Horrobin for Bookies.com

Jordan Horrobin  | 5 mins

AL Wild Card 2021 Yankees at Red Sox Picks & Betting Preview

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Of the 16 permutations of American League tiebreaker/wild-card scenarios that existed on the final day of MLB’s regular season, the simplest one won out: the Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees on Tuesday at Fenway Park (8:08 p.m. ET).

Two of baseball’s most storied franchises will play a one-game, do-or-die playoff to try and advance to the divisional series later this week. Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.23 ERA) will start for the Yankees, while Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA) goes for the Red Sox.

Despite being the home squad, the Red Sox are underdogs on the moneyline at betting sites . Their recent record against the Yankees probably justifies that, although the pitching matchup makes this an intriguing game to look at from both sides. Here’s a look at the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds available on betting apps.

MLB odds listed are current as of publication. Sportsbooks may indicate odds changes closer to first pitch.

AL Wild Card Red Sox vs Yankees Best Bet

Earlier in the season, an Eovaldi-led Red Sox team would’ve appeared very promising against the Yankees. Eovaldi has faced New York six times this season, and the first five led him to a 2-1 record with a 2.01 ERA. But his sixth start against the Yankees, which came two weeks ago, he was shelled for seven earned runs over 2 2/3 innings.

One bad start might feel like a fluke when compared to five good ones, but it could also be a way to show how this Red Sox-Yankees series shifted over the course of the season. New York has won six in a row against Boston, having swept the Red Sox at home in August and on the road in September.

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Boston did polish off a clutch sweep of the undermatched Washington Nationals to finish its season, but the team’s recent incompetence against the Yankees is troubling. And scraping by with a 4-2 mark in its final road trip against the Nationals and Baltimore Orioles, who both finished with bottom-five records, is hardly impressive when considering out MLB picks.

On the Yankees’ side, Cole hasn’t been stellar of late — 2-2, 6.15 ERA in his final five starts — but New York feels good with him on the mound. In his wild-card start last year (against Cleveland), Cole allowed two runs in seven innings while striking out 13. We’ll take the favored Yankees at Caesars Sportsbook.

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3 AL Wild-Card Props To Back

Judge, Verdugo and Devers to record a hit (+138 with FanDuel): The three most clutch performers on the final day of the season were Aaron Judge (walk-off hit for Yankees), Alex Verdugo (game-tying double for Red Sox) and Rafael Devers (go-head home run for Red Sox). We want to capitalize on that level of clutch, so we’ve grouped them into a same-game parlay.

It’s just one hit apiece, which doesn’t feel like too much to ask. An alternative that we’d also consider is a parlay of Judge recording multiple hits and Verdugo recording one hit. That pays out at +233 at FanDuel.

Alternate run total, Over 7.5 (-150 at DraftKings): Let’s play it a little safer on this second prop and tease down the over/under by one run. At 7.5 runs, we like the over because of Cole’s recent struggles and Eovaldi’s disastrous start last time out against the Yankees. And while both teams enjoyed an off-day Monday, either bullpen could run into problems — both teams deployed five relievers during their season finales on Sunday. Grab this one at DraftKings sportsbook.

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Boston recording the most hits (+135 with FanDuel): We aren’t picking the Red Sox to outscore the Yankees, but we do believe they can outhit New York — and the value of these odds make it worth a shot.

In their final 20 games of the regular season, the Red Sox averaged nine hits per game while the Yankees averaged 8.1. More recently, New York recorded just 30 hits in its final five games, compared to 45 hits for Boston.

About the Author

Jordan Horrobin for Bookies.com
Jordan Horrobin
Jordan Horrobin has created sports betting content since 2019, covering everything from the NFL to KBO. Based in Toronto, he has written for MLB.com, The Athletic and Sportsnet.