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Justin Verlander Next Team Odds: 30% Chance Ace Lands in New York
Adam Thompson | 5 mins
Justin Verlander recently became just the second pitcher in history to start a World Series game in three different decades (joining Roger Clemens). He finally got his first World Series win in Game 5, which went a long way toward helping propel the Astros to the title.
Not to rain on the (World Series) parade, but that may have been the final game for Verlander in an Astros jersey. The 39-year-old right-hander is now officially a free agent after he declined his $25 million player option.
It’s very possible, even at his age, that Verlander could fetch much more on the open market. After all, he just went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and is about to win his third Cy Young Award. By opting out, as many expected him to do, Verlander is about to test that theory.
Has his thrown his final pitch for the Astros? Sports salary website Spotrac puts Verlander’s market value at nearly $42 million. His asking price is reportedly one year, $40 million.
Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has revealed his hypothetical MLB futures odds on Verlander’s team for next season.
Justin Verlander 2023 Team Odds
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
| LA Dodgers | +350 | 22.2% |
| Houston Astros | +500 | 16.7% |
| New York Yankees | +500 | 16.7% |
| New York Mets | +650 | 13.3% |
| Boston Red Sox | +800 | 11.1% |
| Texas Rangers | +850 | 10.5% |
| Atlanta Braves | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +1000 | 9.1% |
| The Field | +725 | 12.1% |
Odds are created by the Bookies.com handicapping team and do not reflect odds that may be available on legal betting apps. They are for entertainment purposes only.
Verlander has done it all in his career, with two AL Cy Young awards and a third on the way. The resume also includes nine All-Star Games, three no-hitters and even a Triple Crown (leader in wins, strikeouts and ERA) in 2011. He also has a World Series ring with the Astros in 2017.
He joined Roger Clemens as the only men to have tossed Series games in three decades. Clemens threw until he was 45, so Verlander stretching it to 40 and beyond isn’t much of a stretch. It also isn’t a stretch to say he could command more than $25 million. Five pitchers this season made over $30 million annually; all of them were in their 30s, including MLB salary leader Max Scherzer (38).
Will Astros re-sign Justin Verlander?
Now that Verlander has declined his option, the Astros will certainly be in the mix to retain him. But will they?
The Astros are more salary-conscious than some teams out there. Couple that with the wagonload of young, talented arms already in the rotation or waiting for an opportunity, and the Astros can balk at spending $40 million and still have an elite rotation.
Free Agent options for Justin Verlander
There are two legitimate reasons why the fan favorite may not return. It’s also a big reason the New York Yankees are near the top the MLB betting list.
They paid big money to steal Houston’s last great ace, Gerrit Cole, in 2020. Cole was far younger and signed a massive nine-year deal which pays him $36 million annually. New York’s top offseason priority is to bring Aaron Judge back, so Verlander may be too pricey in the end, even for the pinstripes.
The Dodgers would surely make a run at Verlander. Few teams outside of New York have a pocketbook that can compete with L.A.’s, and with Clayton Kershaw, David Price and Craig Kimbrel all coming off the books, that’s just over $62 million in available base salary.
The Mets have a seemingly bottomless stash of money with owner Steve Cohen hellbent on bringing a World Series to Queens. If the Mets can’t bring back Jacob deGrom – who himself is now a free agent and is likely to command even more than Verlander – look for New York to go big on replacing one ace with another.
The Red Sox spent over $220 million on payroll in 2022 and it got them last place in the AL East. With over $120 million coming off the books for 2023, this would be a good year to make a lot of changes, including adding a bona-fide ace alongside Chris Sale, who presumably will be healthy.
The Rangers have been trying to lure an ace to Arlington, notably Kershaw last year. They gave Corey Seager over $35 million annually, and Marcus Semien and Jon Gray big deals to come to town, and Verlander would add immediate clout.
The Braves, Phillies and Giants can all spend and all have championship hopes, especially the NL East rivals. The Field has other free-spending teams that would have to move things around, such as the Padres and Angels, as well as up-and-coming teams that may look to make an all-in push, like the Blue Jays and Giants.
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