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Justin Verlander Next Team Odds: 20% Chance Rangers Acquire Future Hall of Famer

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 5 mins

Justin Verlander Next Team Odds: 20% Chance Rangers Acquire Future Hall of Famer

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Justin Verlander committed a season-high six walks and was booed off the Citi Field mound in a 6-0 defeat to the Dodgers on July 14. That was just the latest nightmare in a season full of them for Verlander and the New York Mets. 

With the Mets’ season going off the rails, the team with MLB’s highest-ever payroll may look for a reboot in 2024. That could mean selling off some of its higher-priced stars. And that includes Verlander, the three-time Cy Young Award winner and nine-time All-Star pitcher. 

Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson has revealed his hypothetical MLB odds on Verlander’s post-trade-deadline team. 

Justin Verlander Post-Trade Deadline Team Odds

TeamOddsImplied Probability
Texas Rangers+40020.0%
New York Mets+45018.2%
San Francisco Giants+50016.7%
Boston Red Sox+52516.0%
Cincinnati Reds+80011.1%
Arizona Diamondbacks+90010.0%
Baltimore Orioles+9509.5%
The Field+45018.2%

Odds are projected and do not reflect any odds that may be available at legal betting sites or betting apps.

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Justin Verlander's Future Up in the Air

The Mets are trending toward “seller” status for the Aug. 1 trade deadline. Manager Buck Showalter all but confirmed it when noting Verlander will have two more starts before the end of the month. Asked why that’s important, he noted, “You do the math.”

As of July 18, Verlander was 3-5 with a 3.72 ERA. The Mets were 5-8 in his 13 starts this season. That’s not the production New York was hoping for when it inked the pitcher two a massive two-year, $87 million deal to lure him from Houston. 

Verlander, 40, has defied his age the last five seasons – when healthy. From 2017-19 with the Astros, he was 42-15 with an ERA just over 2. Last year, he was 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA. 

He also tossed just five games in 2017, one in 2020 and none in 2021. Things haven’t gone smoothly in 2023, but for teams in contention, Verlander could be a missing link. The issue could be any team that acquires him now would have to swallow the $43 million owed in ’24. 

Verlander owns a no-trade clause, so he would need to approve any deal. A chance to win another ring could do it. It’s possible the New York Mets keep Verlander for this year and make another run for it with him next summer. 

RELATED: Max Scherzer Next Team Odds: Rangers In the Lead

Which Contenders Can Use Verlander?

Starting pitching isn’t the No. 1 need for the Texas Rangers; bullpen help is. But they’ve already acquired Aroldis Chapman and have an owner that’s willing to spend. With MLB’s top-scoring offense, one more veteran in the rotation could make all the difference, and the Rangers have been proactive. 

The San Francisco Giants aren’t afraid of spending, given the offers made to Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa (who ultimately stuck with their old teams). So they may not be afraid to pay Verlander. Giants brass has pinpointed shortstop and starting pitching as the two areas of greatest need. 

Similarly, the Boston Red Sox are within striking distance of a Wild Card spot, led by a fifth-ranked run-producing offense. The rotation has just two semi-reliable starters, so if the Red Sox decide they’re buyers, Verlander should absolutely be on their radar. Boston’s payroll ranks a modest 14th – the team has money to spend. 

Perhaps no team has more potential, and more of a need for starting pitching, than the Cincinnati Reds, who last year lost 100 games and this season are in the mix for a postseason berth. The Reds’ offense ranks eighth in scoring, their bullpen is fifth in ERA, but the starters are near the bottom. Only one player on the roster earns more than $2.5 million. Would Cincy make such a massive financial commitment? 

After a stellar first half of the season, the Arizona Diamondbacks are in a dogfight with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West. But the D’backs only have about 2.5 reliable starters. That’s not going to cut it. They should be buyers at the deadline, but ownership will need to decide if Verlander’s price makes it worthwhile. 

The Baltimore Orioles went from perennial cellar-dweller to bona fide AL contender in just one year, and that was without breaking the bank. But many analysts believe the starting pitching isn’t postseason caliber. Would the O’s take on Verlander now if it means paying him next year? Nobody on the team earns more than $10 at the moment. 

The Field includes other teams that could use a veteran like Verlander but may not have the pieces or overall interest to pull the trigger, including the Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.