MLB Manager Hot Seat Odds 2026: Astros' Joe Espada In Trouble in Houston

By Thomas Leary

Aug 31st, 2026 3:14 PM EDT

Astros former general manager Dana Brown (left) talks with manager Joe Espada before the game against the Milwaukee Brewers (USATODAY)

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Three MLB managers have already been fired this season -- Alex Cora in Boston on April 25, Rob Thomson in Philadelphia on April 28, and Carlos Mendoza in New York on June 26 -- and the MLB race to the postseason is about to reshape the hot seat once again.

The Astros shook up the board again on August 24, this time by firing GM Dana Brown after a reported disagreement with owner Jim Crane over a trade involving reliever Bryan Abreu. But it's what came next that matters for this board: multiple reports indicate Joe Espada has been informed his contract will not be renewed after the season, making him a lame-duck manager running a first-place team. Espada was given the choice to walk away immediately and chose to stay. He returns to the No. 1 spot on this board -- not because Houston is losing, but because the organization has effectively told him he's done regardless.

Meanwhile, the Angels have escalated their teardown by firing pitching coach Mike Maddux, assistant pitching coach Darryl Scott, and bullpen coach Dom Chiti in August. And the Mariners -- who came within one game of the World Series in 2025 -- have collapsed to 64-73, putting Dan Wilson's job squarely on the line.

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Next MLB Manager Fired Odds

Odds above are projected by Bookies.com and are not currently available at legal sportsbooks or betting apps.

The MLB season is heating up — and some managers are already on the hot seat. Here are the top betting favorites to be the next manager fired in 2026.

Which MLB Manager Will Get Fired Next?

Joe Espada, Houston Astros (+150)

Espada returns to the top of the board in perhaps the most unusual hot-seat situation in recent baseball memory -- he's managing a first-place team and is still almost certainly done after the season. The Astros are 69-68 and leading the AL West, but none of that matters in the context of what happened on August 24. The Astros fired GM Dana Brown after a disagreement with owner Jim Crane over a proposed trade of reliever Bryan Abreu to the Twins for outfielder Trevor Larnach. Crane nixed the deal, and Brown was out.

Reports quickly followed that Espada has been told he won't be renewed, though Crane has been publicly cagey: "We've never changed that answer all year long." Espada was given the option to leave immediately and chose to stay and manage out the season. Crane is now overseeing baseball operations directly through the transition. For a franchise that went to seven straight ALCS appearances from 2017–2023, the front-office chaos is jarring -- and Espada, despite leading a contender, is the heaviest favorite on the board.

Kurt Suzuki, Los Angeles Angels (+250)

The Angels' dismantling is well underway. Los Angeles fired pitching coach Mike Maddux, assistant pitching coach Darryl Scott, and bullpen coach Dom Chiti in August -- a full coaching-staff purge that leaves Suzuki increasingly isolated. Interim GM John Mozeliak has described the final weeks of the season as an "evaluation period," which is front-office speak for "we're watching everything." The Angels are 52-85 and on a seven-game losing streak, the worst record in the American League. Suzuki's one-year deal was always designed to be a bridge, and owner Arte Moreno -- who has parted with two managers since 2023 — isn't in the habit of extending bridges. The only question is whether the firing comes during the final week of the season or the day after it ends.

Dan Wilson, Seattle Mariners (+500)

Wilson is new to this board and represents one of the most dramatic collapses in the American League. The Mariners came within one game of the World Series in 2025 and have completely fallen apart in 2026, sitting at 64-73 and five games back in the AL West with a four-game losing streak. Multiple outlets report Wilson is "expected to be fired if the Mariners miss the playoffs," and with 25 games left and the gap widening, that outcome looks increasingly likely.

GM Jerry Dipoto handpicked Wilson, which complicates matters -- firing the manager could trigger broader questions about Dipoto's own future. Wilson has managed just over a full season in Seattle, but the gap between the 2025 roster's potential and the 2026 results has been too wide for the front office to ignore.

John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (+900)

Schneider drops to longshot territory as the Blue Jays' situation has stabilized from the crisis point it hit in July. Toronto is 68-70, still 15 games back in the AL East, and the World Series hangover from 2025 has been painful -- but it hasn't devolved into the kind of clubhouse implosion that triggers mid-season firings.

His extension through 2028 provides significant financial buffer, and the front office appears willing to let him finish the year. The bigger question is whether Toronto's offseason evaluation points to a new voice, not whether Schneider is fired in September. He's safer than he was a month ago, but not safe.

Tony Vitello, San Francisco Giants (+1400)

Vitello's first season continues to be a grind -- the Giants are 56-81 and 26 games back in the NL West -- but the first-year buffer that protected him in June is still holding, albeit thinner. He remains the first manager in baseball history to jump directly from college head coach (Tennessee) to the big leagues with no professional coaching experience, and multiple analysts have argued he deserves a pass given the roster he inherited. That said, the Giants fired Bob Melvin after two seasons in September 2025, so patience can run out quickly in that front office. If the losing continues at this pace through September, the evaluation shifts from "give him time" to "what did we learn," and the answer may not work in Vitello's favor.

The Field (+800)

The field covers the 25 managers not named on this board. The top watch-list name is Torey Lovullo in Arizona -- the D-backs are 73-65 and in the wild-card hunt, but Lovullo is in the final year of his contract with no extension talks, and his job security reportedly hinges entirely on making the playoffs. A late-September collapse would almost certainly end his tenure.

Matt Quatraro in Kansas City (extended through 2029, riding an 8-2 run in his last 10) has the strongest organizational backing of any struggling-team manager, and A.J. Hinch in Detroit rounds out the names to monitor. October's first week always produces a wave of firings — and with at least three managers widely expected to go, this year's wave could be one of the biggest in recent memory.

About the Author

Thomas Leary

More About Thomas

Thomas Leary is a senior editor with Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.

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