MLB Manager Hot Seat Odds 2026: Astros' Joe Espada Buys Time in Houston

By Thomas Leary

Jul 28th, 2026 2:07 PM EDT

Astros general manager Dana Brown (left) talks with manager Joe Espada before the game against the Milwaukee Brewers (USATODAY)

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Three MLB managers have already been fired this season -- Alex Cora in Boston on April 25, Rob Thomson in Philadelphia on April 28, and Carlos Mendoza in New York on June 26 -- and the MLB trade deadline is about to reshape the hot seat once again.

The biggest story on this board since our last update is what's happening in Houston. The Astros have gone from three games below .500 to within 2.5 games of the AL West lead, and GM Dana Brown has publicly confirmed the team is buying at the deadline -- pursuing outfield help, relief pitching, and starting arms. That turnaround has knocked Joe Espada from the top of the board down to third. You simply don't invest in a playoff push and fire your manager at the same time.

That means Kurt Suzuki takes over as the new favorite. The Angels are on pace for well over 100 losses, the GM has already been fired, and Suzuki's one-year deal makes the end-of-season decision obvious. Meanwhile, John Schneider's situation in Toronto has deteriorated -- the Blue Jays are 14 games behind in the AL East, "lost the clubhouse" reports have grown louder throughout July, and a trade-deadline fire sale is looming.

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Next MLB Manager Fired Odds

Odds above are projected by Bookies.com and are not currently available at legal sportsbooks or betting apps.

The MLB season is heating up — and some managers are already on the hot seat. Here are the top betting favorites to be the next manager fired in 2026.

Which MLB Manager Will Get Fired Next?

Kurt Suzuki, Los Angeles Angels (+175)

Suzuki moves to the top of the board for the first time, and it feels more like a matter of when than if. The Angels are 42-64 through 106 games — on pace for well over 100 losses — and the front office has already been gutted after GM Perry Minasian was fired on June 26. Interim GM John Mozeliak, brought in from the Cardinals' front office, said publicly that the coaching staff is "fine for this year," but all signs point to a clean sweep when the season ends. Suzuki's one-year deal makes him the easiest manager in baseball to replace, and owner Arte Moreno has fired two managers since 2023 (Phil Nevin and Ron Washington). The writing is on the wall. The only question is whether the Angels let him finish the season or pull the plug before then.

John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (+250)

Schneider jumps from third to second as the Blue Jays' season has gone from disappointing to dire. Toronto is 49-58 through 107 games, 14 games behind in the AL East, and the "lost the clubhouse" narrative that surfaced in June has only gotten louder throughout July. Multiple reports indicate the relationship between Schneider and his players has frayed significantly, and the clubhouse issues aren't just about winning and losing. A trade-deadline fire sale is looming — and historically, when a team starts dealing away its core, the manager often follows. His extension through 2028, signed during spring training, provides some financial buffer, but ownership may decide that paying out the deal is a worthwhile price for a fresh start. Schneider is the most likely candidate to be fired mid-season.

Joe Espada, Houston Astros (+500)

The trade deadline may have saved Joe Espada's job — at least for now. The Astros have climbed from 46-49 on our last board to 52-55, pulling within 2.5 games of the AL West lead after a solid stretch of play. GM Dana Brown has publicly confirmed the team is buying at the deadline, pursuing outfield help, relief pitching, and starting pitching. Houston has already trimmed payroll by sending Lance McCullers Jr. to the Brewers, freeing up room to add. When your organization is actively investing in a playoff push, you're not firing the manager. That said, Espada's core problem hasn't gone away: both he and Brown are in the final year of their contracts with no extension in sight, and the prevailing read among insiders is that the organization plans to let both deals expire after the season. A playoff berth could change that calculus. Missing October for the second straight year almost certainly won't.

Tony Vitello, San Francisco Giants (+1000)

Vitello's first-year buffer is holding, but it's thinner than it was in June. The Giants are 45-61 through 105 games, trailing the NL West by more than 22 games, and Vitello has already been ejected three times this season as the frustration builds. He remains the first manager in baseball history to jump directly from college head coach (eight seasons at Tennessee) to the big leagues with no professional coaching experience, and the adjustment has been uneven. That said, multiple analysts have argued that Vitello should get a pass given the roster he's working with — the underperformance isn't entirely on the manager. But the Giants fired Bob Melvin after two seasons in September 2025, so patience isn't unlimited in that front office. If the losing continues at this pace and the clubhouse starts tuning him out, San Francisco could move on faster than the odds suggest.

Matt Quatraro, Kansas City Royals (+1400)

Quatraro drifts to the longest odds on the named board despite Kansas City owning one of the worst records in baseball at 45-62 through 107 games. The reason? His extension through 2029, signed in January 2026, is the strongest organizational vote of confidence on this board, and the Royals have been one of the hotter teams in the AL recently — going 7-3 in their last 10 games with a two-game winning streak. The front office views this as a roster and injury problem, not a manager problem. The starting rotation has been decimated for months, the bullpen has been among the league's worst, and the offense hasn't been consistent enough to compensate. A mid-season firing would be a dramatic departure from the patience Kansas City has shown, and would only happen if the clubhouse fractured in a way that made Quatraro's position untenable.

The Field (+800)

The field covers the 25 managers not named on this board, and trade-deadline season always bumps the probability that a surprise firing catches the market off guard. A.J. Hinch in Detroit remains the top watch-list name — the Tigers are deep in the AL Central cellar and the rebuild's patience is wearing thin. Craig Albernaz in Baltimore is another name worth tracking as the Orioles continue to fall short of their recent contention standards. Andy Green carries the interim tag in New York after replacing Mendoza on June 26, but interim managers are rarely fired mid-season — the more likely outcome is a full search over the winter. With the deadline approaching and front offices making difficult decisions about buying or selling, at least one surprise dismissal is always in play.

About the Author

Thomas Leary

More About Thomas

Thomas Leary is a senior editor with Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.

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