MLB Manager Hot Seat Odds 2026: Astros' Joe Espada New Favorite After Phillies Fire Thomson

By Christopher Boan

May 7th, 2026 8:57 AM EDT

Cora was the first manager let go in 2026 (USATODAY)

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While the 2026 MLB regular season moving towards the dog days of summer, it’s never too early to look at which skipper might get the boot next. Over the past couple weeks, the Red Sox made the first managerial change of the MLB campaign, letting go Alex Cora and most of his staff. The Phillies then quickly followed suit dismissing Rob Thomson.

With that in mind, the team at Bookies.com broke down the odds on which MLB manager will get fired next, with the Astros' Joe Espada leading the way right now.

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Next MLB Manager Fired Odds

Odds above are projected by Bookies.com and are not currently available at legal sportsbooks or betting apps.

The MLB season is heating up — and some managers are already on the hot seat. Here are the top betting favorites to be the next manager fired in 2026.

Which MLB Manager Will Get Fired Next?

As we approach the quarter-point of the MLB regular season, the Houston Astros have been one of the more disappointing teams in the American League, sitting fourth in the five-team AL West.  

Houston entered the year with a win total over/under of 86.5, but are currently on pace to finish 63-99, meaning they’re at risk of missing their total by 23.5 victories. With that in mind, it’s hard to see third-year skipper Joe Espada surviving the season, which is why we’re giving him the commanding top odds to get fired next.  

Through two-plus seasons, Espada’s failed to win a playoff series, falling in the Wild Card Round to the Detroit Tigers in a two-game sweep before missing out entirely last fall.  

All told, Espada’s +175 (36.4%) odds to be the third MLB manager fired are well ahead of the team he’s currently ahead of (the Los Angeles Angels), with first-time manager Kurt Suzuki starting off on a rough patch, with Halos’ owner Arte Moreno being notorious for his short leash when it comes to skippers.  

Currently, Suzuki (+350) is the next-best MLB manager to join Cora and Thomson on the league’s firing line, while 10th year veteran Torey Lovullo of the Arizona Diamondbacks is next in line, at +660 (13.2%).  

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Other MLB Managers On The Hot Seat

While Espada and Suzuki’s poor start to the 2026 MLB regular season are likely enough reasons for them to lose their jobs, the case is a bit more obtuse when you look at those a bit further down our odds board.  

Lovullo’s high-water mark came when he led Arizona to the World Series in 2023, though he’s failed to get the D’backs back to the postseason since.  

This year, Arizona’s rocky start to the season has them sitting in the middle of the NL West standings, ahead of the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies but a step (or two) below the title-contending Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.  

Complacency is not a calling card of MLB owners, with Arizona’s Ken Kendrick likely to make a move on Lovullo if the D’backs can’t find their footing soon.  

Outside of the Valley, the slow-starting Kansas City Royals are next in line to suffer a managerial change, with Matt Quatraro’s four-year tenure with the team netting them one postseason berth (in 2024), followed by an 82-80 clunker last year and this year’s slow start, which has them fourth in the five-team AL Central.  

Quatraro (+1000) is currently our No. 4 candidate to get axed next, speaking to Kansas City’s slow start, though they’re still just a handful of games back of the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians in the divisional race, which could buy him enough time to avoid being the next skipper fired in the league.  

Finally, the New York Mets’ disastrous start to the year would ordinarily mean a fast exit for manager Carlos Mendoza, though President of Baseball Operations David Stearns gave the embattled skipper a vote of confidence last week.  

“We know our record is not what we want, and we know we are capable of more,” Stearns told MLB.com. “We don’t view this as a manager problem, and we don’t intend to make a change.” 

Given that ringing endorsement from team leadership, it seems unlikely that Mendoza will get fired in time to be the third skipper canned this MLB season, which is why we’re putting him as our fifth and final candidate to be shown the door next, at +1200 (or 7.7%).  

For now, it seems like two managers in the AL West have the most reason to panic about their respective job security levels, as the temperature rachets up, both on their figurative seats and on thermometers across the country.  

About the Author

Christopher Boan

More About Christopher

Christopher Boan has covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, with stops at ArizonaSports.com, Tucson Weekly and Green Valley News.

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