Celtics vs Heat Eastern Conference Finals Odds, Best Bets & Predictions

By Adam Thompson Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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The Boston Celtics are four wins away from advancing to the NBA Finals for the second year in a row. In their way is a familiar postseason foe: The No. 8-seeded Miami Heat, who had to win a play-in game to reach the postseason, then handled the Bucks in five games and the Knicks in six. 

These teams split their season series 2-2, though Miami won the last two matchups, the final one without Jimmy Butler. Jaylen Brown didn’t play, either. 

This marks the second time in three years these teams meet in the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston won in seven games last year, while the Heat won in six games during the 2020 "bubble" postseason.

Who prevails this time? Ahead of Game 1, Bookies.com breaks down the series and makes our NBA betting picks to back on betting apps.

Celtics vs. Heat Odds

Celtics vs. Heat Betting Tips

Adebayo The Key: Jimmy Butler has taken his game to new heights this postseason, but he dropped down a notch after spraining his ankle in Game 1 vs. the Knicks. Bam Adebayo has been the man who stepped up, and he’s the man who really did the same vs. the Celtics in the regular season. In the two Heat victories, he averaged 29 points, 10.5 rebounds and five assists. One of those wins was without Butler. 

Stars Shining: Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have been beasts for the Celtics, and in four regular-season games vs. Miami, and probably the top coach in the league in Erik Spoelstra, the Heat had no answers. In terms of total points, rebounds and assists, Brown had games of 35, 38 and 56, Tatum 38, 63, and 52. Brown’s average was 37, Tatum’s was 43.5. 

Duncan Donut: Duncan Robinson has seen anywhere from six minutes to over 30 minutes of action in this postseason. Miami has done better the less Robinson has suited up, and Spolestra has noted it. The Heat are 6-0 in the NBA Playoffs when the reserve guard gets under 20 minutes and 2-3 when he gets over that mark. Go Under on Robinson player props. 

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Celtics vs. Heat Picks

Boston is a massive -525 favorite to advance to the NBA Finals, while Miami is just +400. Are the Heat worth a play at that price, given what they’ve done to get this far as the No. 8 seed? 

The Celtics are a tough play here at that price, but Boston has the matchups, has the stars, has the homecourt. The bigger concern is what Boston does with Adebayo – whatever it’s done so far hasn’t worked – and what Spoelstra will do against rookie Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla. 

The longer Miami lasts, the better the price of Series Correct Score odds. Celtics In 5 is the favorite at online sportsbooks at +245. But we can get Celtics In 6 and Celtics In 7 each at +360. 

Celtics vs. Heat Schedule

• Game 1: Miami at Boston, Wednesday, May 17, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
• Game 2: Miami at Boston, Friday, May 19, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
• Game 3: Boston at Miami, Sunday, May 21, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
• Game 4: Boston at Miami, Tuesday, May 23, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
• *Game 5: Miami at Boston, Thursday, May 25, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
• *Game 6: Boston at Miami, Saturday, May 27, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
• *Game 7: Miami at Boston, Monday, May 29, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT)

* if necessary

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.