By Mark Strotman | | 4 mins
Chet Holmgren NBA Draft Odds: Likely Top Pick Set For March Madness
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While there isn’t a clear Cade Cunningham-like top overall draft pick at this point in the NBA season, there certainly is a frontrunner. 7-foot center Chet Holmgren is one of college basketball’s true unicorns, and it’s no wonder NBA scouts are salivating at the idea of what such a versatile, athletic player could do at the next level.
As a prospect, he’s a little bit of Kevin Durant and a little Kristaps Porzingis. In today’s NBA, where versatility from bigs is no longer a nice-to-have but a requirement, Holmgren fits the bill of a true franchise player.
It's why we believe he’ll wind up being the consensus top pick. The teams that will be picking in this year’s Lottery and most likely to earn the top pick all have too many problems to go position-hunting or consider fit. What these teams all “need” most is talented basketball players, and that’s Holmgren.
With that in mind, here are our projected NBA futures odds for where Holmgren will play next season on the assumption that he will be the first pick and won’t be traded:
This page will be updated between March and the NBA draft to reflect the shifting liklihood of Holmgren's landing spot.
Chet Holmgren NBA Draft Odds
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Who Will Get The No. 1 Pick In The 2022 NBA Draft?
The three worst teams in the NBA regular season each will have a 14% chance of earning the top pick. Those are +610 implied odds, and in the past sportsbooks and NBA betting sites have listed the teams with the top chance to earn the No. 1 pick at +600. These three frontrunners are each tanking their way to the finish line, deploying a group of young potential players to A) help them develop for the future, and B) lose games.
Orlando has invested plenty in its frontcourt with Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter, and Chuma Okeke, but none offer the skillset that Holmgren does (that’s going to be a common theme here). The Rockets would love to complement rookie guard Jalen Green with a big like Holmgren, while Thunder GM Sam Presti can’t get enough of long, talented big men. Any of these teams would run to the podium on draft night to select Holmgren.
Where Else Could Holmgren Land?
We’ve certainly seen teams jump up into the top spot of the Lottery, and teams would be on Cloud Nine if it happened. The Pistons would earn the top pick for a second consecutive season, pairing Holmgren with budding star Cunningham.
The Pacers traded away Domatas Sabonis at the deadline this February, and Myles Turner doesn’t appear to be the future inside they hoped he would be. The Kings, meanwhile, invested in Sabonis but are building around De’Aaron Fox and would jump at the opportunity to take the class’s most talented big with the top pick.
Long Shots For Holmgren
It’s great to see the Pelicans in this spot again because it’s the same place they were when they jumped to the top of the Lottery to nab Zion Williamson a few years back. They have their first-round pick protected 1-4 and would form a widly talented trio of Holmgren, Williamson, and Brandon Ingram if it could happen.
You know Gregg Popovich would love to get his hands on a talent like Holmgren, and he could have the Spurs back in contention before long. The Blazers have been desparate to put talent around Damian Lillard, and Holmgren could be the 1-2 pairing that convinces him to stay in Portland.
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