2025 Emmy Betting Odds: Who’s Favored in Limited Series & TV Movie Categories This Year?

By Jeff Parker Jun 20th, 2025 5:54 PM EDT

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Nomination voting is currently underway for the 77th annual Primetime Emmy Awards, with the official list of nominees expected to be announced on July 15th. This year’s ceremony will be hosted by comedian Nate Bargatze, and is slated for Sunday, September 14th, airing live at 8pm EST on CBS and streaming simultaneously on Paramount+.

Next year, betting sites in New Jersey, Michigan, Indiana, Arizona, Kansas, Massachusetts and Louisiana will be taking bets on one of Hollywood’s biggest nights of the year.

Ahead of the official nomination announcement, Bookies.com is taking a look at oddsmakers' favorites to win in the Limited Series and TV Movie categories.

Emmy Award for Best Limited Series Odds

Show	Odds	Percentage Chance
Adolescence	+165	37.7%
The Penguin	+375	21.1%
Dying for Sex	+550	15.4%
Disclaimer	+850	10.5%
Monsters: The Lyle & Erik Menendez Story	+1400	6.7%
Black Mirror	+1400	6.7%
The Field	+3500	2.8%

At +165, Netflix’s buzzy social drama Adolescence is the current favourite to win Best Limited Series. A haunting mix of style and substance, the British psychological thriller follows a teen boy accused of murdering a female classmate, with each episode unfolding in a dazzling “one-r” — that is, one single camera take.

HBO’s Bat-verse drama, The Penguin, starring Colin Farrell as Gotham city crime-boss Oswald Cobblepot, is next on the odds board at +375. Meanwhile, the Hulu-FX dramedy Dying For Sex is hovering in third at +550. Don’t be surprised if the strong word of mouth behind the Michelle Williams’ vehicle — where she plays a terminal cancer patient re-discovering her libido — pushes Dying for Sex higher on the odds board as Emmy-day draws closer.

As you’ll see from the odds below, sportsbooks are clearly anticipating Adolescence, The Penguin, and Dying for Sex to be well represented across all of the Limited Series categories on nomination day.

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Emmy Award for Best TV Movie Odds

Movie	Odds	Percentage Chance
Rebel Ridge	+225	30.8%
Bridget Jones: Mad About The Boy	+350	22.2%
Out of My Mind	+450	18.2%
Mountainhead	+700	12.5%
Am I OK?	+1200	7.7%
The Field	+1100	8.3%

Best TV movie is highlighted by Rebel Ridge (+225) a gritty action-thriller about a former Marine who faces off against a small-town Louisiana police department. Another Netflix production, Rebel Ridge comes from acclaimed indie directer Jeremy Saulnier and features a breakout performance from Aaron Pierre. Forget the pejorative “TV movie” label, among critics, Rebel Ridge was widely considered one of the best movies of 2025.

The next likeliest winner in this category is the latest edition in the continuing adventures of Bridget Jones. Premiering on Peacock earlier this year, Bridget Jones: Mad About The Boy sees Renee Zellweger reprise her iconic role for the fourth time.

Emmy Award for Movie/Limited Actress Odds

Actress	Show	Odds	Percentage Chance
Cristin Milioti	The Penguin	+185	35.1%
Michelle Williams	Dying for Sex	+335	23.0%
Cate Blanchett	Disclaimer	+450	18.2%
Renee Zellweger	Bridget Jones: Mad About The Boy	+900	10.0%
Kaitlyn Dever	Apple Cider Vinegar	+1250	7.4%
The Field	—	+1500	6.3%

Oddsmakers have made Cristin Miloti (+185) the favorite to take home Best Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series for her turn as Sofia Falcone in The Penguin. Miloti’s femme fatale inspired performance has drawn widespread praise, landing her a Critics Choice award and Golden Globe nomination already. A relative unknown, Miloti is poised to face off against some major star power in this category, with Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex), Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer), and Renee Zellweger (Bridget Jones) all seeming likely to land nods of their own.

Emmy Award for Movie/Limited Actor Odds

Actor	Show	Odds	Percentage Chance
Colin Farrell	The Penguin	+175	36.4%
Stephen Graham	Adolescence	+350	22.2%
Cooper Koch	Monsters	+650	13.3%
Kevin Kline	Disclaimer	+750	11.8%
Brian Tyree Henry	Dope Thief	+1000	9.1%
The Field	—	+1250	7.4%

Once again The Penguin’s strength among Emmy oddsmakers is on display in the Best Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series category, with Colin Farrell (+175) the betting favorite. Farrell’s prosthetics-laden portrayal of Oswald Cobblepot, a wannabe Gotham City kingpin, has been lauded by critics and comic book fans alike. But don’t count out Adolescence's Stephen Graham (+350), who makes for an intriguing dark horse. The veteran UK performer has a pivotal role as the father of a 13-year-old boy accused of murdering a female classmate in Netflix’s harrowing four-part crime series. Graham is also the series’ co-creator and a co-writer on all four episodes.

Emmy Award for Movie/Limited Supporting Actress Odds

Actress	Show	Odds	Percentage Chance
Erin Doherty	Adolescence	+315	24.1%
Deirdre O’Connell	The Penguin	+375	21.1%
Jenny Slate	Dying for Sex	+475	17.4%
Lesley Manville	Disclaimer	+650	13.3%
Sissy Spacek	Dying for Sex	+900	10.0%
The Field	—	+600	14.3%

As a psychologist undergoing a pre-trial evaluation on the boy accused of a gruesome murder Erin Doherty (+315) makes a big splash in, arguably, Adolescene’s most impactful episode. She’s a slight favorite over The Penguin’s Deirdre O’Connell for Best Supporting Actress — Limited Series/TV Movie category. Meanwhile, Dying for Sex looks poised to nab two nominations here, for Jenny Slate (+475) and Sissy Spacek (+650).

Emmy Award for Movie/Limited Supporting Actor Odds

Actor	Show	Odds	Percentage Chance
Owen Cooper	Adolescence	+300	25.0%
Javier Bardem	Monsters	+350	22.2%
Rhenzy Feliz	The Penguin	+600	14.3%
Rob Delaney	Dying for Sex	+600	14.3%
Ashley Walters	Adolescence	+700	12.5%
The Field	—	+700	12.5%

In his first ever on-screen role, Adolesence’s adolescent breakout Owen Cooper (+300) is the current frontrunner to take home the Emmy for Supporting Actor — Limited Series/TV Movie. Cooper plays troubled 13-year-old Jamie Miller, accused of murdering a female classmate. Right now, oddsmakers are giving him a small edge over veteran performer Javier Bardem (+350), who portrays real-life Cuban-born American businessman José Menendez, infamously murdered by his own sons, in the latest iteration of Ryan Murphy’s Monster true-crime anthology series on Netflix.

About the Author

Jeff Parker

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Jeff Parker is a sports and entertainment writer for Bookies.com. A writer for film, television and the internet, Jeff is a life long movie buff, with a Masters Degree in Popular Culture. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia, where he works full time as documentary filmmaker and producer.