2026 Oscars Betting Guide: Latests Odds, Best Bets For The 98th Academy Awards

By Bill Speros

Mar 5th, 2026 10:36 AM EDT

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony airs Sunday, March 15, 2026, starting at 7 p.m. ET on ABC. The show will be hosted by longtime TV late-night host Conan O'Brien for the second straight time. The nominations air live on ABC Thursday. Here is our 2026 Oscars Betting Guide: Odds, Best Bets for the 98th Academy Awards, complete with odds and predictions for the winners in the top key categories.

"Sinners" leads all films with record 16 nominations this year, including for Best Picture, Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Best Director (Ryan Coogler), Best Supporting Actor (Delroy Lindo), and Best Supporting Actress (Wunmi Mosaku). The prohibitive favorite on both sportsbooks and in prediction markets to win Best Picture remains "One Battle After Another." The film has led that category since markets first opened last year.

RELATED: How To Legally Bet And Trade On The 2026 Oscars

Wagering on the Oscars has been legal in the United States since 2019. The best betting sites in New Jersey, Michigan, Indiana, Arizona, Kansas, Massachusetts and Louisiana take on Hollywood’s biggest night of the year. Legal sports betting sites in Ontario are also booking action.

Not all legal sportsbooks offer betting on the Academy Awards, even if permitted to do so. 

Meanwhile, prediction markets such as Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood offer trades on multiple Oscar-related items in all 50 states. 

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Conan O’Brien Delivers Ratings Boost

O'Brien replaced Jimmy Kimmel as the host. Viewership rebounded in 2024. About 19.5 million watched. Viewership in 2025 edged up to 19.9 million. That marks the largest audience since 2020. Viewership bottomed in 2021 when just 10.4 million people watched. That was the smallest TV audience in Oscars history (since the first measurement in 1974). The numbers bounced back in 2022 to about 16 million, largely thanks to the Chris Rock-Will Smith slap and the stir it caused on social media.

98th Academy Awards Odds & Analysis

There are multiple awards given out before the Oscars that can be both predictive and drive these markets. Chief among them are the prizes awarded by the Screen Actors Guild, the Directors Guild of America, the British Film Academy Awards, and the Golden Globes.

Oscar voting began on Saturday and ends on Thursday.

Here is a breakdown of the Oscars odds listed by their best available price, our picks, and the buzz on each of the six major Oscars categories.

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Best Picture - 98th Academy Awards Odds & Best Bets

2026 Best Picture Odds (via DraftKings)

Best Picture - 98th Academy Awards Anaylsis

The Buzz: Oscar season has arrived with a full list of potential Best Picture favorites. The two early favorites were the Shakespearean-themed “Hamnet” and “One Battle After Another,” from Paul Anderson. "Sinners" moved into the No. 2 spot in this market at DraftKings and elsewhere after it nabbed a record 16 nominations. Its price on Kalshi spiked from 6% to 19% after the Oscar nominations were announced. “Hamnet” is the latest offering from Chloe Zhao and tells the story of the Bard and his wife, Agnes, as they struggle with the death of their young son. The film got a limited theatrical release in the U.S. at Thanksgiving and nationwide release in December. The film premiered at Telluride in August. “One Battle After Another” stars Leonardo DiCaprio (look for him in our Best Actor rundown) and features a group of revolutionaries fighting all comers to find the daughter of one of their own. "One Battle After Another" swept through the Baftas, winning best picture, best director, best adapted screenplay and best supporting actor for Sean Penn. It's price doubled after the Baftas and now clocks in at -650 on DraftKings and 78 cents on Kalshi.

And the winner is . . .  We've thrown in the towel on “Hamnet.” It carries an “Anora” feel. In addition to an exceptional value, it carries a lot momentum, perhaps too much. It features a female protagonist and a female director – both of which are a plus with voters. "Sinners" gobbled up 16 nominations - a record - but the overall film has failed to impress during the early awards season. “One Battle After Another” absorbed all the early money and, thus far, has paid off in the trading markets given its strong showing at the Baftas and Actors Awards. "Sinners" was once +600 to but edged up to +350 after winning the ensemble award and a Best Actor nod for Michael B. Jordan. “Anora” last year proved that smaller is better. It surged last winter before nabbing “Best Picture” odds as critics and voters were taken by its unassuming presence and raw story feel. "Hament" remains a value play here. "One Battle After Another" carries strong political overtones, which will play well among many Oscar voters. But its price remains too high for the risk. We're going with "Sinners."

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Best Director - 98th Academy Awards Odds & Best Bets

2026 Best Director Odds (via DraftKings)

Best Director - 98th Academy Awards Analysis

The Buzz: Chloé Zhao ("Hamnet") won her Oscar for “Nomadland” in 2022. Last year, “Anora’s” Sean Baker won in this category, as well. The favorite this years remains Paul Thomas Anderson ("One Battle After Another"), who's dominated early awards season, including the at the Baftas. He was priced at -1800 on DraftKings after the nominations were announced. Among the 16 nominations for "Sinners" includes Ryan Coogler in this category.

And the winner is . . . Paul Thomas Anderson until further notice.

Best Actress - 98th Academy Awards Odds & Best Bets

2026 Best Director Odds (via DraftKings)

Best Actress - 98th Academy Awards Analysis

The Buzz: One name dominates this discussion - and has absorbed much of the betting and trading handle. Jessie Buckley covered the complete emotional spectrum at 100% in "Hamnet." Rose Byrne held some interest for her leading role in the psychological thriller "If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You." Both waltzed through the early stage of award season. Byrne won the Golden Globe Award in comedy/musical category, a Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance at the 75th Berlin International Film Festival and a Critics' Choice Award nomination for Best Actress. Buckley swiped the Globe in the drama category, the Golden Globe, the Baftas, and the Actors awards. Oddsmakers sided with Buckley after the nominations were announced, slotting her at -1800 vs. +900 for Byrne. Her price has doubled since.

And the winner is . . . Jessie Buckley stole our heart and soul in "Hamnet." And takes it here.

Best Actor - 98th Academy Awards Odds & Best Bets

2026 Best Actor Odds (via DraftKings)

Best Actor - 98th Academy Awards Analysis

The Buzz: Michael B. Jordan saw his odds skyrocket after winning the Actors award for this category. The Academy voters in this category are virtually from the same group. His price soared from +1000 to +135 at DraftKings. At age 30, Timothee Chalamet carries with him some serious Oscar PTSD. His role as Bob Dylan in "A Complete Unknown" brought him to the precipice of a Best Actor win, only to fall short to Adrien Brody ("The Brutalist.") His role in "Marty Supreme" earned him a Golden Globe for actor in a musical or comedy. He's the favorite of oddsmakers, fetching -500 at DraftKings. This time, Leonardo DiCaprio stands in the way. DiCaprio suffered through four unsuccessful Best Actor/Supporting Actor Oscar bids before finally brining home his lone statute for "The Revenant" in 2018. Leo was priced at +500 after the Oscar nominations. Brazilian actor Wagner Moura took the 2026 Globe for actor in a drama for "The Secret Agent." Michael B. Jordan earned one of the 16 nominations for "Sinners" in this category. He's +1800 at DraftKings. British newcomer Robert Aramayo won Best Actor at the Baftas for the British biopic I Swear. The 33-year-old expressed enormous surprise during his speech. He is not an Oscar nominee.

And the winner is . . . Timothee Chalamet take home the statue he should have won last year. But it's going to be close.

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Best Supporting Actress - 98th Academy Awards Odds & Best Bets

2026 Best Supporting Actress Odds (via DraftKings)

Best Supporting Actress - 98th Academy Awards Analysis

The Buzz: Teyana Taylor rolled through the early awards season for her performance alongside Leonardo DiCaprio in "One Battle After Another". She's amassed the Golden Globe Award for Best Supporting Actress, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award for Best Supporting Actress, and the National Society of Film Critics Award for Best Supporting Actress. Her run ended at the Baftas, as Wunmi Mosaku won for "Sinners." Amy Madigan captured the Critics Choice trophy for her role in "Weapons." We tagged her as a value play ahead of her win in the Actors awards. Oddsmakers installed Taylor (-185) as a slight favorite over Madigan (+160) after the nominations were announced. Taylor's price peaked at -280 and 70 cents to win $1 at Kalshi before Mosaku's win at the Baftas. Mosaku subsequently overtook Madigan for the No. 2 spot in this market, and saw her price spike from +600 to +240. But heading into the Awards, it's Madigan who's taken a commanding lead after being as low as 10 cents to win $1 on Kalshi last fall.

And the winner is . . . Amy Madigan takes it her, riding high off her win at the Actors awards. In much the same way Buckley takes home the lone statue of "Hamnet," Madigan does the same for "Weapons."

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Best Supporting Actor - 98th Academy Awards Odds & Best Bets

2026 Best Supporting Actor Odds (via DraftKings)

Best Supporting Actor - 98th Academy Awards Odds & Best Bets

The Buzz: Sean Penn entered this Oscar season as an afterthought. But his role in "One Battle After Another" has gathered momentum and brings with it a "Lifetime Achievement" feel. Especially in this hyper-political season. Penn won at the Baftas and followed that up with a win at the Actors awards. Penn has seen his odds spike from +500 at DraftKings and 20 cents on Kalshi to -320 on DraftKings and 78 cents to win $1 on Kalshi. The past nine Critics Choice winners in this category have taken home the Oscar. Jacob Elordi won Best Supporting Actor Critics Choice Award for his role in "Frankenstein." Stellan Skarsgård for his role in "Sentimental Value" was an early favorite. The veteran actor won the Golden Globe Award for Best Supporting Actor. Oddsmakers installed Skarsgård as an even-money favorite following the nominations. Since then, his price peaked at -200 and 68 cents to win $1 on Kalshi before sliding after the Baftas. Delroy Lindo grabbed one of the 16 nominations for "Sinners" in this category.

And the winner is . . . This one has turned into a runaway for Sean Penn, who rallied late during awards season after falling to 18.6 cents to win $1 on Kalshi after the Golden Globes.

About the Author

Bill Speros

More About Bill

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.

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