2026 Oscars Odds: Picks, Ultimate Betting Guide For 98th Academy Awards

By Bill Speros

Jan 21st, 2026 12:55 PM EST

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony airs Sunday, March 15, 2026, starting at 7 p.m. ET on ABC. The show will be hosted by longtime TV late-night host Conan O'Brien for the second straight time. The nominations air live on ABC Thursday.

Here is our 2026 Oscars Odds: Picks, Ultimate Betting Guide for the 98th Academy Awards, complete with odds and predictions for the winners in the top key categories. We will continue to update this guide once the full odds are available as the show draws near. 

Wagering on the Oscars has been legal in the United States since 2019. Betting sites in New Jersey, Michigan, Indiana, Arizona, Kansas, Massachusetts and Louisiana take on Hollywood’s biggest night of the year. Legal sports betting sites in Ontario are also booking action.

Not all legal sportsbooks offer betting on the Academy Awards, even if permitted to do so. 

Meanwhile, prediction markets such as Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood offer trades on multiple Oscar-related items in all 50 states. 

Conan O’Brien Delivers Ratings Boost

O'Brien replaced Jimmy Kimmel as the host. Viewership rebounded in 2024. About 19.5 million watched. Viewership in 2025 edged up to 19.9 million. That marks the largest audience since 2020. Viewership bottomed in 2021 when just 10.4 million people watched. That was the smallest TV audience in Oscars history (since the first measurement in 1974). The numbers bounced back in 2022 to about 16 million, largely thanks to the Chris Rock-Will Smith slap and the stir it caused on social media.

98th Academy Awards Odds & Analysis

There are multiple awards given out before the Oscars that can be both predictive and drive these markets. Chief among them are the prizes awarded by the Screen Actors Guild, the Directors Guild of America, the British Film Academy Awards, and the Golden Globes.

Here is a breakdown of the Oscars odds listed by their best available price, our picks, and the buzz on each of the six major Oscars categories (when available).

Best Picture - 98th Academy Awards Odds & Best Bets

The Buzz: Oscar season has arrived with a full list of potential Best Picture favorites. The two early favorites are the Shakespearean-themed “Hamnet” and “One Battle After Another,” from Paul Anderson. “Hamnet” is the latest offering from Chloe Zhao and tells the story of the Bard and his wife, Agnes, as they struggle with the death of their young son. The film gets a limited theatrical release in the U.S. at Thanksgiving and goes nationwide in December. The film premiered at Telluride in August. “One Battle After Another” stars Leonardo DiCaprio (look for him in our Best Actor rundown) and features a group of revolutionaries fighting all comers to find the daughter of one of their own.

And the winner is . . .  “Hanmet” carries an “Anora” feel. It carries a lot momentum, perhaps too much. It features a female protagonist and a female director – both of which are a plus with voters. “One Battle After Another” has absorbed all the early money. It’s fetching -160 odds a FanDuel and trading at 67 cents to $1 to win (or -149) on Kalshi. But “Anora” proved that smaller is better. It surged last winter before nabbing “Best Picture” odds as critics and voters were taken by its unassuming presence and raw story feel.

Best Picture - 98th Academy Awards Odds & Best Bets

The Buzz: Chloé Zhao won her Oscar for “Nomadland” in 2022. Last year, “Anora’s” Sean Baker won in this category, as well. There are more than 2 dozen potential “Best Director Award” nominees being traded on Kalshi. Among those, the top five are: Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battled After Another), Chloé Zhao (“Hamnet”), Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”), Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”), and Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just An Accident”).

And the winner is . . . Paul Thomas Anderson until further notice.

Best Actress - 98th Academy Awards Odds & Best Bets

The Buzz: Two names will dominate this discussion - and likely absorb much of the betting and trading handle. Jessie Buckley covered the complete emotional spectrum at 100% in "Hamnet." And Rose Byrne for her leading role in the psychological thriller "If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You." Both waltzed through the early stage of award season. Byrne won the Golden Globe Award in comedy/musical category, a Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance at the 75th Berlin International Film Festival and a Critics' Choice Award nomination for Best Actress. Buckley swiped the Globe in the drama category, and the Golden Globe.

And the winner is . . . This one goes down to the wire, but Jessie Buckely stole our heart and soul in "Hamnet." And takes it here.

Best Actor - 98th Academy Awards Odds & Best Bets

The Buzz: At age 30, Timothee Chalamet carries with him some serious Oscar PTSD. His role as Bob Dylan in "A Complete Unknown" brought him to the precipice of a Best Actor win, only to fall short to Adrien Brody ("The Brutalist.") His role in "Marty Supreme" earned him a Golden Globe for actor in a musical or comedy This time, Leonardo DiCaprio stands in the way. DiCaprio suffered through four unsuccessful Best Actor/Supporting Actor Oscar bids before finally brining home his lone statute for "The Revenant" in 2018. Brazilian actor Wagner Moura took the 2026 Globe for actor in a drama for "The Secret Agent."

And the winner is . . . Timothee Chalamet take home the statue he should have won last year.

Best Supporting Actress - 98th Academy Awards Odds & Best Bets

The Buzz: At age 30, Timothee Chalamet carries with him some serious Oscar PTSD. His role as Bob

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