DraftKings, FanDuel Eye Arkansas Expansion — And Razorback State Could Finally Join Big Leagues
DraftKings and FanDuel are close to securing market access agreements with two of Arkansas’ three licensed casinos — a move that could significantly reshape the state’s underperforming online sports betting landscape.
If approved at the Arkansas Racing Commission’s Feb. 26 meeting, both operators could launch immediately.
For a state currently generating just $29 in gaming revenue per adult — well below the $125 national average — that’s not just an upgrade. It’s a potential reset from two of the best sports betting sites.
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The Current Arkansas Setup
Arkansas has three sports betting licenses tied to:
- Southland Casino Hotel (West Memphis)
- Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort (Hot Springs)
- Saracen Casino Resort (Pine Bluff)
All three casinos operate their own in-house platforms. While retail betting has been steady, digital performance has lagged badly compared to national benchmarks.
That underperformance appears to have caught regulators’ attention — especially with neighboring Missouri recently launching sports betting and reporting an eye-catching $543 million in handle out of the gate.
Arkansas doesn’t want to be left behind on the wrong side of the Mississippi River.
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Who’s Partnering With Whom?
Based on current reports:
- FanDuel would partner with Oaklawn
- DraftKings would partner with Southland
- Revenue-sharing agreements are reportedly structured around a 51% split with casino partners
Saracen, for now, appears to remain independent.
The commission vote on Feb. 26 is widely viewed as leaning favorable. DraftKings has already embedded Southland branding within its Arkansas-facing app interface and registered an in-state LLC — strong signals the companies are preparing for immediate launch.
What It Means For The Market
Even with just two national operators entering, Arkansas would effectively become a near-duopoly market (excluding Saracen).
While full open-market competition tends to drive maximum revenue, the entrance of two scaled operators with national marketing power, advanced tech stacks, and proven customer acquisition engines should materially raise the ceiling.
Estimates suggest:
- $1.9 billion in handle by Year 3
- $210 million in gross gaming revenue
- Roughly $57 million in 2025 GGR
- ~$25–30 million in annual EBITDA contribution per operator once stabilized
For context, that would represent a massive improvement over current per-adult revenue performance.
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DKNG, FLUT Stock Price Impact
For investors, Arkansas is not transformational — but it’s meaningful, notes Citizens Gaming Analyst Jordan Bender.
DraftKings
Bender maintains a Market Outperform rating with a $38 price target, based on blended 2027 EBITDA and FCF multiples.
An Arkansas launch could:
- Create short-term 1Q26 EBITDA drag due to upfront marketing and launch spend
- Become accretive by 2026 as the market matures
- Add roughly $1 per share in equity value under current modeling assumptions
Flutter (FanDuel)
Flutter’s $275 price target remains intact for Bender, with Arkansas potentially contributing:
- $25–30 million in EBITDA annually
- ~$2.50 per share in modeled equity value impact
Neither company needs Arkansas. But both would welcome the incremental growth — particularly in a period where new state launches are scarce.
Bigger Picture: Regulatory Shift
The move would also signal a philosophical shift from Arkansas regulators.
The state initially opted for a casino-controlled, limited-operator model. If DraftKings and FanDuel enter successfully, it represents acknowledgment that scale, brand recognition, and product sophistication drive revenue more effectively than protectionist frameworks.
It would also likely mean both companies shutter any prediction market-style offerings in Arkansas upon full sportsbook launch, aligning with traditional regulated sports wagering.
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The Bottom Line
Arkansas won’t become New York or Illinois overnight. But bringing in DraftKings and FanDuel would:
- Modernize the state’s betting ecosystem
- Boost tax revenue
- Increase per-capita gaming revenue
- Provide incremental upside for both operators
For a market stuck in neutral, that’s meaningful momentum.
And in today’s maturing U.S. sports betting landscape, incremental wins matter.
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