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Best Bets for 🏀 NBA - Sunday, May 10, 2026

Game 4 between the Spurs and Timberwolves tips at 7:30 PM ET — the only game tonight that has not yet started. San Antonio leads 2-1 with Wembanyama dominating and Minnesota's season on the line.

San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves

Spurs 62-20 (SRS leaders, No. 1 West seed), lead series 2-1. Timberwolves 49-33, must win to avoid a 3-1 deficit.

7:30 PM ET·NBC, Peacock

Wembanyama posted 39 points, 15 rebounds, and 5 blocks in the Game 3 road win, giving the Spurs two straight victories with completely different game scripts — a blowout in Game 2 and a grind in Game 3. Minnesota needs Edwards to replicate his Game 3 performance (32 pts, 14 reb, 6 ast) but also needs support: Randle and McDaniels combined for 8-of-34 shooting last game. The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, and the Under is 30-15 at Target Center this season — the highest home Under rate in the NBA. San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in their last six games and 11-of-12 SU on the road, making this a true clash of strong trends.

Injuries

🔴 Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) — OUT for season

🟢 Anthony Edwards (left knee bone bruise) — ACTIVE, off injury report for Game 4

🟢 Ayo Dosunmu (calf/heel) — ACTIVE, cleared from injury report

🟢 Carter Bryant (Spurs, undisclosed) — ACTIVE, no designation listed Game 4

Best Bets

Timberwolves +4.5-110

Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and this is a must-win. Even in a 7-point Game 3 road loss, Edwards covered on his own. Home desperation narrows margins.

Under 218.5-112

The Under is 30-15 at Target Center this season — the best home Under rate in the NBA. Both teams rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency, and DiVincenzo's absence has cut Minnesota's offense by 12 points per game versus the regular season.

Julius Randle Over 17.5 Points-115

Randle averaged 21.1 points in the regular season and shot just 25% from the field in Game 3. SportsLine's model projects a 20.1-point bounce-back, and he scored 21 in Minnesota's only series win.

⚡ Sharp Play

Spurs vs Timberwolves — Under 218.5-112

The Under has cashed in 66.7% of Timberwolves home games this season — the highest rate in the league. With DiVincenzo gone, Minnesota is averaging 106 points over their last 5 full games, down from 118 in the regular season. Total has opened at 218.5 and model simulations back the Under strongly, citing both teams' top-10 defensive efficiency ratings.

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