What Are the Odds Kevin Durant Surpasses Every Scoring Milestone?

By Christopher Boan

Mar 24th, 2026 5:39 PM EDT

Rockets forward Kevin Durant has played 68 of Houston’s 71 games this season, showing durability at age 37. (Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images)

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The NBA’s all-time scoring list got quite the shake-up earlier this week when Houston Rockets star Kevin Durant passed Michael Jordan, perhaps the sport’s eminent figure, for fifth in career points.

Now that the 16-time All Star has passed MJ, it’s time to cast our collective hoops gaze forward with a hypothetical NBA betting angle. Does Durant, 37, have enough left in the tank to catch Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and LeBron James in career points?

Bookies.com has complied Kevin Durant scoring milestones odds on him passing each of those four NBA luminaries. The veteran forward has a solid shot at catching one or two of them, based on our math.

These odds are exclusive to Bookies.com, but you can find prop wagers for Durant and other NBA superstars every day at the best sports betting apps.

Who Else Will Kevin Durant Pass?

Kobe Bryant (33,643 points): -750 (88%)

Durant has 32,334 points as of March 24. He would only need 1,309 more to tie former Los Angeles Lakers star Kobe Bryant for No. 4 on the NBA’s scoring list. Barring a career-ending injury, KD will pass Bryant’s points total. At 25 points a game (south of his 25.9 ppg with the Rockets this season), Durant would take the fourth spot sometime next season. The Kevin Durant scoring milestones odds for this feat are very favorable.

Given Durant’s confidence after passing MJ – he told reporters, “Four more to go” – it appears as if he’s in it to win it, or at least to climb a bit further on the league’s scoring list. Bryant is the next target for Durant, the four-time NBA scoring champion.

Already this season, Durant passed Wilt Chamberlain and Dirk Nowitzki on the points list before catching Jordan.

Karl Malone (36,928 points): -210 (68%)

After Bryant, getting past “The Mailman” will take a bit more legwork for Durant. Karl Malone, the former Utah Jazz and Lakers star forward, compiled 36,928 points over 19 seasons. Durant likely needs three full seasons at his current usage rate to pass Malone.

Durant has not played more than 75 games in a season since rupturing his right Achilles tendon in the 2019 NBA Finals. But he hasn’t been out long-term since missing the 2019-20 league year to rehab that rupture. After scoring 40 against the Bulls on March 23, Durant has played 68 of Houston’s 71 games this season, his heaviest workload in several years if he maintains it.

If Durant’s going to pass Malone, he’ll need to average more than 22 points per game in the next three years. That factors in the number of games Durant has averaged over the past three years in Phoenix and Houston (68.3) by the 4,594 points he needs, then dividing that sum by the number of years involved (three).

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (38,387 points): +280 (26%)

Durant’s climb to pass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for second place is more of a mountain pass than a hill. The Rockets veteran sits some 6,053 points shy of the former Bucks and Lakers legend. That’s why Durant told reporters, “I don’t know if I could get 25 a game for 270 more games.”

If Durant plays 82 games a season, he’d reach that figure by averaging an otherworldly 74.3 points per game. That’s not happening, so the realistic path is that Durant averages 24.8 ppg over the next three seasons – if he played just about every game.

Given his age and the likelihood of injury (or injury management) we can guess that Durant will likely play 60-70 games a year. Using that 68.3 game average since 2023, Durant would need to average 29.7 ppg to catch Abdul-Jabbar, or a more manageable 17.8 over another five seasons, assuming about 68 games a season.

As for 2025-26, Durant has been healthy and the Rockets have +3500 odds at Caesars Sportsbook to win the Western Conference.

LeBron James (43,253+ points): +8000 (1%)

The King is still suiting nightly for the Lakers and resets his own NBA career scoring record each time he finds the cylinder. So it’s difficult to peg exactly how many points Durant would need to pass LeBron James, his longtime Team USA confidante.

Quite simply, there’s little chance.

Durant already trails James by nearly 11,000 points, and that deficit is assuming that James hangs up his sneakers today, which he isn’t.

For entertainment’s sake, Durant would need to average his current 25.9 ppg over 423 NBA games (just over five full seasons) to catch James. At that point, Durant would be 42 and would have logged 1,614 career contests (one more than LeBron’s current tally of 1,613 games).

Again, those are James’ numbers as of today. His 43,253 points are almost 5,000 past Abdul-Jabbar.

Durant will almost assuredly not pass LeBron as the NBA’s all-time top scorer, but we can note how dominant both have been during their careers. The +8000 odds of Durant catching James reflect how far James is ahead.

What To Know About KD’s Latest Accomplishment

Durant might not ever catch LeBron James on the all-time points list, but he passed Jordan on a much more efficient basis. The former Chicago Bulls star attempted 24,537 field goals, more than 2,000 over Durant’s current total.

MJ’s 30.1 points per game average is still the league’s golden standard. But Durant is sixth all-time at 27.15 ppg.

To put it as plainly, as Durant’s teammate Amen Thompson did, “That’s legendary. Just being on a team with greatness like that.”

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