March Madness Picks & Best Bets 2026 NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16 (March 23)
The Road To Indianapolis continues this week with the Sweet 16. This year, March Madness ends in April with the National Championship Game on April 6. After checking the latest college basketball odds, be sure to check our March Madness Picks & Best Bets below as the tournament continues.
Recent NCAA Tournament history has been very kind to No. 1 seeds.
In all, 17 of the past 25 and 7 of the past 8 national champions were No. 1 seeds. The most recent exception was Connecticut in 2023. Those Huskies entered the tournament as a No. 4 seed. Of course, UConn proceeded to win back-to-back national titles as Danny Hurley kept the bulk of his team intact.
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Want a bigger dog than the 2023 Huskies – in terms of seeding – to win a national title? You’ll have to go back to the 2014 UConn Huskies. Those pups were a No. 7 seed before running the table and cutting down the nets at Jerry World. Those Huskies were +9500 to win the Tournament.
Three No. 3 seeds have won the Tourname since 2000, and one No. 2 seed has won during that time.
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Game-By-Game Predictions
Here are our March Madness Picks & Best Bets for the Sweet 16. All betting lines via OddsJam.
East Region - Sweet 16
Friday - Washington, D.C.
1 Duke vs. 5 St. Johns
7:10 p.m. | CBS
Duke -6.5 (-110)
Duke ML -258
St. Johns ML +210
O/U 141.5
Best Bet: St. Johns +6.5 (FanDuel via OddsJam). Dylan Darling and the Johnnies own The Big Apple - at least until Friday. Darling's only points of the game came in the form of a buzzer-beater against Kansas in a 67-65 thriller Sunday. St. Johns dominated Kansas but nearly blew it down the stretch. Rick Pitino's team won't have that luxury against No. 1 Duke. The Devils eviscerated TCU 81-58 after a scare against Siena. But the Devils still committed 17 turnovers. The Johnnies offer an OG Big East throwback by leading with defense, defense, and more defense. Duke (34-2) advanced to the Sweet 16 for the 29th time since the tournament expanded in 1985. But St. John's is perfectly constructed to exploit Duke's weaknesses. Pitino reaches into his bag of tricks and gets to the Elite Eight. Or at least the cover in our March Madness Picks & Best Bets.
3 Michigan State vs. 2 UConn
9:45 p.m | CBS
UConn -1.5 (-102)
Michigan State +1.5 (-122)
UConn ML -120
Michigan State ML +100
O/U 137.5
Best Bet: UConn -1.5 (+102 DraftKings vid Odds Jam). To the surprise of absolutely no one, Danny Hurley and Tom Izzo have their teams back in the Sweet 16. The Spartans played just well enough to beat Louisville 77-69 to get here, and, more importantly, score the 5.5-point cover. MSU is 2-0 ATS in the Tournament. Alex Karaban - who has played in more games than anyone else in this tournament and has two national titles on his resume - carried the Huskies past UCLA Sunday night with 27 points. UConn nabbed an easy cover as 5.5-point overdogs in the 73-57 victory. The Huskies have the edge in depth. But Izzo is Yoda to Hurley's Luke Skywalker. No coach this side of John Wooden gets more from his players. UConn has shot just 26.5% from three in the tournament thus far. Michigan State has shot 21-of-46 from deep (45.6%). The three-point battle will be crucial. Another physical rock fight awaits. The Huskies survive and advance due to the smallest edge in talent and depth. Buckle up for the possibility of an Big East regional final.
South Region - Sweet 16
Thursday - Houston
4 Nebraska vs. 9 Iowa
7:30 p.m. | TBS
Nebraska -2.5
Nebraska -155
Iowa +130
O/U 133.5
Best Bet: Iowa +2.5 (-110) (DraftKings via OddsJam). A Big Ten Showdown In The Elite Eight. Iowa (+400 ML, +10.5) scored the biggest upset of the tournament Sunday night with a thrilling 73-72 win over No. 1 seed and defending national champion Florida. In Tampa.. Iowa, thus, rode its hot-shooting guards and a big early lead to dethrone the Gators. The Huskers have found their March groove to reach the Sweet 15 after going 0-8 in the Tournament before this year. Freshman forward Braden Frager squeezed through multiple defenders to hit a layup with 2.2 seconds left on the clock to deliver Nebraska a 74-72 win over Vanderbilt. These teams did not meet during the regular season or Big Ten tournament. But Iowa continues to impress here in our March Madness Picks & Best Bets.
2 Houston vs 3 Illinois
10:05 p.m. | TBS
Houston -2.5 (-115)
Houston ML -150
Illinois ML +130
O/U 139.5
Best Bet: Under 139.5 Points (DraftKings via OddsJam). An Irresistible Force Meets an Immovable Object. Houston ranks 4th at KenPom with an elite defensive efficiency of 90.7 (4th nationally). Illinois sits 7th with the 2nd-best offense in the country at 131.9 adjusted efficiency. Houston's reward for reaching the Sweet 16 is a regional final at the Toyota Center, which is located about 2.5 miles from the Cougars' campus. Neither team has yet to be an underdog in this tournament. The Illini thumped VCU - the team that bounced North Carolina. Houston continued its rampage - hopefully back to the national title game - by clobbering No, 10 by 31 points. The Illini are an unlikely underdog, but the Cougars get a home-away-from-home court edge. Illinois's effort will impress, but fall short. Meanwhile, we'll take advantage of both defenses and sweat the under just in case Brad Underwood's Illini feels like pulling off a monster upset in our March Madness Picks & Best Bets.
Midwest Region - Sweet 16
Friday - Chicago
1 Michigan vs 4 Alabama
7:35 p.m. | TBS
Michigan -10.5
Michigan ML -535
Alabama +400
O/U 176.5
Best Bet: Alabama +10.5 (DraftKings via OddsJam). Another Big Ten-SEC Sweet 16 matchup - along with Purdue vs Texas. Who needs defense? This game carries the highest total of the tournament thus far. The Wolverines averaged 98 points in their first two games in this tournament. But the top-seeded Wolverines have only covered twice in their past 12 games. That's a big-time warning. Michigan passed an early test against St. Louis in Round 2. Michigan cruised to a 95-72 victory and cover (-12.5). Their first since the regular season. Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara have Michigan primed for a sweep in the Windy City this weekend. But Alabama can keep the pace. The Tide rolled past Texas Tech 90-65 Sunday. Expect Alabama to keep pace - at least enough to bring this home within single digits.
2 Iowa State vs. 6 Tennessee
10:10 p.m. | TBS
Iowa State -4.5 (-110)
Iowa State ML -218
Tennessee ML +180
O/U 137.5
Best Bet: Under 137.5 Points (DraftKings via OddsJam). Another SEC-Big 12 Sweet 16 matchup - along with Arizona vs Arkansas. Iowa State owns the best record ATS of any Big 12 team (22-13-1) and has covered in six straight games. That includes the Cyclones' 83-63 rout of Kentucky Sunday. Red Hot Tennessee played a nearly flawless first half Sunday to take control against No. 3 Virginia and survived a late flurry for a 79-72 victory. The Volunteers advance to the Sweet 16 for the fourth straight season. This one hinges on the status of All-American Joshua Jefferson. The all-world 6-9 Iowa State star is Iowa State's top rebounder at 7.6 RPG and second-leading scorer at 16.9 PPG. This line suggests Jefferson will be a factor. But with the uncertainty and both teams primed for gritty, physical, low-possession battle, we'll ride the under.
West Region - Sweet 16
Thursday - San Jose
2 Purdue vs. 11 Texas
7:10 p.m. | CBS
Purdue -7.5 (-110)
Texas +8.5 (-118)
Purdue ML -350
Texas ML +280
O/U 139.5
Best Bet: Purdue -7.5 (-118 at FanDuel via OddsJam). Another Big Ten-SEC Sweet 16 matchup - along with Michigan vs Alabama. In the West, Cinderella swapped those glass slippers for a pair of longhorns. Camden Heide hit a 3-pointer with 14.7 seconds left — his first points of the entire 2026 tournament — to seal Texas' upset of Gonzaga. Texas previously beat NC State (First Four) and BYU in reaching the Sweet 16. Purdue's run, meanwhile, has been steady and dominant. Purdue doesn't turn the ball over and Texas struggled to force them. Shop around as this number is floating between 7.5 and 8.5. This will be Texas' fifth game in 12 days. That's a big ask against a deep, physical and punishing Boilermakers' team. A close game opens up in the final 10 minutes.
1 Arizona vs. 4 Arkansas
9:45 p.m. | CBS
Arizona -8.5 (-110)
Arizona ML -380
Arkansas ML +300
O/U 166.5
Best Bet: Over 166.5 Points (DraftKings via OddsJam). Another SEC-Big 12 Sweet 16 matchup - along with Iowa State vs Tennessee. The top-seeded Arizona Wildcats, meanwhile, are trading at 22% to win the national title on Kalshi, just slightly ahead of Michigan at 20%. In all, Kalshi has traded 149,622,505 on this market since it opened in October. The Razorbacks' run hit 7 straight victories with a low-energy 94-88 win over High Point. Arkansas won the SEC Tournament but haven't been pushed in the Big Dance. The Razorbacks need to find some defense if they hope to advance at this stage. The Wildcats have covered in their past 3 tournament games - going back to their Big 12 title win over Houston. A good comp here in favor of the Wildcats and the over - the 111 points Arkansas allowed against Florida and the 117 the Razorbacks gave up to Alabama.
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First Round Scores
Thursday - Round of 64
TCU 66, Ohio State 64
Nebraska 76, Troy 47
Louisville 83, South Florida 79
Michigan 101, Howard 80
High Point 83, Wisconsin 82
Duke 71, Siena 65
Vanderbilt 78, McNeese 68
Michigan State 92, North Dakota State 67
Arkansas 97, Hawai'i 78
VCU 82, North Carolina 78
Texas 79, BYU 71
Texas A&M 63, Saint Mary's 50
Illinois 105, Penn 70
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Friday - Round of 64
Saint Louis 102, Georgia 77
Gonzaga 73, Kennesaw State 64
Houston 78, Idaho 47
Kentucky 89, Santa Clara 84 (OT)
Texas Tech 91, Akron 71
Arizona 92, Long Island University 58
Virginia 82, Wright State 73
Iowa State 108, Tennessee State 74
Alabama 90, Hofstra 70
Utah State 86, Villanova 76
Tennessee 78, Miami (Ohio) 56
Iowa 67, Clemson 61
St. John's 79, UNI 53
Purdue 104, Queens 71
UCLA 75, UCF 71
Florida 114, Prairie View A&M 55
Kansas 68, Cal Baptist 60
Miami (Fla.) 80, Missouri 66
UConn 82, Furman 71
Second Round Scores
Saturday - Round Of 32
1 Michigan 95, 9 Saint Louis 72
3 Michigan State 77, 6 Louisville 69
1 Duke 81, 9 TCU 58
2 Houston 88, 10 Texas A&M 57
11 Texas 74, 3 Gonzaga 68
3 Illinois 76, 11 VCU 55
4 Nebraska 74, 5 Vanderbilt 72
4 Arkansas 94, 12 High Point 88
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Sunday - Round Of 32
9 Iowa 73, 1 Florida 72
2 Purdue 79, 7 Miami (Fla.) 69
2 Iowa State 82, 7 Kentucky 63
5 St. John's 67, 4 Kansas 65
6 Tennessee 79, 3 Virginia 72
4 Alabama 90, 5 Texas Tech 65
1 Arizona 78, 9 Utah State 66
2 Iowa State 82, 7 Kentucky 63
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Schedule
Here are our key March Madness Picks & Best Bets key dates to mark on your calendar and upcoming schedule:
- Sweet 16: Thursday - Friday
- Elite Eight: Saturday - Sunday
- Final Four: Saturday, April 4
- National championship game: Monday, April 6
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March Madness Picks & Best Bets: What The Sportsbooks Say
Patrick Berbert, College Basketball Trader at Caesars Sportsbook, checked in with Bookies.com before the tournament night. Here's what he had to say.
On Overall Expectations For The Tournament:
We’re expecting a fairly chalky tournament this year, similar to what we saw last season. The NIL era has really widened the gap between the top programs and the rest of the field. From a betting standpoint, we’re projecting record engagement again. College basketball has been a phenomenal product all season, and the television ratings reflect that, as it was reportedly the most-watched regular season ever.” We anticipate SMU/Miami OH, Utah St/Villanova, High Point/Wisconsin, and the winner of NC State/Texas vs BYU to be highly-wagered First Round games.
On Favorites No. 1 Seeds Duke, Michigan, Florida & Arizona,
Duke enters the tournament as the current title favorite at +295. They’ve been dealing with some injuries lately, but they’re expected to get Patrick Ngbonga back, which should give them a boost heading into the tournament. Michigan, meanwhile, cooled off a bit after its scorching start, and the injury to LJ Cason could be significant. Florida had some struggles during non-conference play, but really found its stride in SEC action. With a roster full of experienced players, they’ll be a tough out. Arizona may be the most battle-tested of the group, given the schedule they’ve played and the consistency they’ve shown all season. All four teams have earned their position near the top of the odds board.
Potential Cinderellas This Year
As for potential Cinderella teams, South Florida stands out. First-year head coach Bryan Hodgson, who came over from Arkansas State, has them playing an exciting style. They push the pace, shoot a high volume of threes and rebound well. From a betting perspective, Saint Louis and Miami (OH) are also drawing early attention as possible Cinderella teams that could make a run in the tournament.
Here's what Michael Ranftle, Senior Trader, BetMGM, had to say about his book's liabilities.
Among the favorites, UConn, Florida, and St. John's are our biggest liabilities to win the tournament. Duke and Arizona have been popular with bettors, but are the best outcomes of the title contenders for the sportsbook.
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Betting Stats: March Madness Picks & Best Bets
March Madness Title Picks & Best Bets: Major Bets Of Note
- $100,000 to win $600,000 on Purdue to Final Four
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- $50,000 to win $225,000 on Arizona +450
- $25,000 to win $225,000 on UConn +900
- $25,000 to win $275,000 on Houston +1100
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March Madness Picks & Best Bets: All-Time Longshots To Win
Going back to the expansion of the field to 64 teams in 1985, here's a look as the longest pre=tournament odds for the NCCA winner.
| odds | YEAR | Team | SEED | FINAL OPP. | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +9500 | 2014 | UConn | No. 7 | Kentucky | 60-54 |
| +3500 | 1985 | Villanova | No. 8 | G'town | 66-64 |
| +2500 | 2011 | UConn | No. 3 | Butler | 53-41 |
| +2000 | 1988 | Kentucky | No. 6 | Oklahom | 83-79 |
| +1800 | 1997 | Arizona | No, 6 | Kentucky | 84-79 (OT) |
| +1600 | 2023 | UConn | No. 4 | San Diego | 76-59 |
March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Betting Trends To Watch
Here's a look at some trends and history surrounding the March Madness top seeds:
- Most times seeded No. 1: North Carolina (18)
- All four No. 1 seeds made Final Four: Twice (2008, 2025)
- No No. 1 seeds made Final Four: Four (1980, 2006, 2011, 2023)
- Championship games featuring two No. 1 seeds: 11 (1982, 1983, 1999, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2015, 2017, 2021, 2024, 2025)
- Championship game featuring no No. 1 seeds (modern era): Eight
- Only team to beat three No. 1 seeds: Arizona (1997 - beat No. 1 Kansas in Elite Eight, No. 1 North Carolina in Final Four, No. 1 Kentucky in championship game)
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March Madness Picks & Best Bets: Best Finish By Seed
In all the No. 1 see has won 26 national championships since the NCAA Tournament expanded to its current (legitimate) 64-team field in 1985,
| SEED | BEST FINISH | TIMES |
|---|---|---|
| No. 1 | National Champion | 26 |
| No. 2 | National Champion | 5 |
| No. 3 | National Champion | 4 |
| No. 4 | National Champion | 2 |
| No. 5 | Runner-up | 4 |
| No. 6 | National Champion | 1 |
| No. 7 | National Champion | 1 |
| No. 8 | National Champion | 1 |
| No. 9 | Final Four | 2 |
| No. 10 | Final Four | 1 |
| No. 11 | Final Four | 6 |
| No. 12 | Elite Eight | 2 |
| No. 13 | Sweet 16 | 3 |
| No. 14 | Sweet 16 | 2 |
| No. 15 | Elite Eight | 2 |
| No. 16 | Second round | 2 |
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