MLB Steps Up To Plate With Prediction Markets With Polymarket Deal, CFTC 'Understanding'

By Bill Speros

Mar 19th, 2026 11:45 AM EDT

(Imagn)

NEW YORK - A year ago, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred kept the door ajar when it came to prediction markets. Unlike his counterparts in the NBA and NFL, Manfred told Bookies.com at an Associated Press Sports Editors meeting at MLB headquarters that he was keeping an open mind about the platforms. At that time, the Commodities Futures Trading Corporation had yet to issue formal clearance for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to offer sports event contracts in the U.S. But Kalshi self-certified itself ahead of Super Bowl 59.

“If they’re going to let it happen. It seems to me it’s got to be regulated in sort of the same way as legalized sports betting," Manfred said.

Well, that day has arrived, at least as far as Manfred and MLB is concerned.

Thursday, MLB announced an exclusive partnership with Polymarket. And MLB and the CFTC entered into an "Memorandum of Understanding" concerning the integrity of baseball-related trades.

Polymarket, which has yet to officially launch nationwide in the U.S., will become the exclusive prediction-market partner of MLB. It will be the only prediction market platform allowed to use team trademarked logos, reports Front Office Sports. That site reported that the deal could be worth up to $300 over 3 years.

In addition to the licensing revenue MLB would get from the use of its trademarked logos, MLB also makes sure that its official data is used in settling trades on Polymarket. Sports books have defined house rules when it comes to each specific sport and each market offered. Those rules must be approved by regulators in most of the 39 states where sports betting is legal.

MLB & CFTC Announce 'Memorandum of Understanding'

The 'Memorandum of Understanding' sets up a framework for both sides. They will "discuss, cooperate, and exchange information" concerning the integrity of MLB and prediction markets.

There's nothing set in stone beyond that. But it may open the door for other leagues and NCAA moving forward.

“The MOU is a collaborative step towards promoting the integrity and resilience of the prediction markets relating to professional baseball. Through this MOU, the CFTC is well-positioned to add additional tools to protect these markets and its participants from fraud, manipulation, and other abuses,” said CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said in a release.

Other Sports Joining With Prediction Markets

The NHL, MLS and UFC/TKO previously entered into partnerships with prediction markets. Those leagues also maintain marketing deals with various sportsbooks. Polymarket and Kalshi are “official” partners of the NHL. Polymarket has dibs on MLS and UFC/TKO.

NASCAR's Director of Sports Betting Joseph Solosky told Bookies.com at the Daytona 500 in February that NASCAR was working on a prediction market data-sharing and integrity deal. That would allow prediction markets to use NASCAR's official data. They would, in turn, agree to the same integrity protections used by NASCAR's sports-betting partners.

Unlike the MLB, NASCAR is an official sports betting license holder in Arizona, North Carolina and Missouri. So it does not want to enter into any marketing deals with the likes of Kalshi, Robinhood or Polymarket. That may put its license at risk in those states.

Sportradar works with MLB, NASCAR and several other pro leagues and sports betting operators when it comes to data distribution and integrity protection.

"We see a significant opportunity to monetize our products and services in prediction markets. Similar to our approach with (online sportsbooks), our commercial agreements will be varied and structured to optimize value. Our arrangement with MLB reflects this approach providing Polymarket with MLB data and the opportunity to provide our broad suite of products and services, as well as an ability to provide these to other participants in the prediction markets," a Sportradar spokesman said.

NCAA Continues PM Opposition Ahead Of March Madness

The NFL, NCAA, and NBA remain publicly averse to prediction markets. That's mainly due to integrity concerns. There has been some public movement on the NFL front.

Ahead of March Madness, NCAA President Charlie Baker threw shade at prediction markets. This time as part of his on-going fight against college player props.

The NCAA sent a letter to Kalshi in November, and another to the CFTC in January. Those letters voiced concerns over the integrity regarding prediction markets. And lamented the fact that those 18 and over can trade on CFTC regulated platforms. The NCAA said its letter it sent in January will be entered into the CFTC's current comment portal concerning its proposed prediction market guidelines.

"They don't collect the data they're required to collect like a sports book," Baker told CBS. "They have a bunch of work to do in this space."

In response to the X post sharing Baker's comments, Kalshi News replied that "Kalshi has never offered a single college player prop. The implication that we do is complete misinformation. The claim that we do not collect user information is equally false. Kalshi is a financial exchange; we have extensive integrity, surveillance, and oversight measures."

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